Brilliant stuff Simon and thanks for taking the time to pull that together. You should join Mick Cowan for a gig with the Hawks brains trust. One of your best pieces was the analysis of Ben McKay and Esava Ratugolea as defenders and it showed that they weren't worth the hype or money both were attracting at that time.
Watching the Hawks, it looks like we're a pretty good team. We seem to be able to frequently outnumber the opposition and are able to generate a lot of shots at goals form marks inside 50 (as your stats confirm). IT's nice to see that the stats bear out what our team looks like.
It was interesting to listen to David King this week on SEN who was talking down the Hawks and of the view that Gold Coast were far more likely to improve in 2205 on whatever they do in 2024. Kingy is a huge Champion Data devotee and the two stats he follows most closely is how effectively a team moves the ball and how effectively a team prevents its opposition from moving the ball. I suspect that, based on Kingy's opinion, we are middle of the road in both of those metrics.
What has to be taken into account though is that we are 1.5 seasons into what is one of the most aggressive reshaping of a playing list that we've seen. We weren't expecting to play finals this year and the aim was to see real evidence of improvement that could be sustained. Whether or not we play finals this season is immaterial, what is most satisfying is the genuine improvement that we're seeing.
It is a little similar to season 2006. In that season we started well (unlike this season) but then had a ten or so game run where we lost regularly and, in some cases, heavily, before a very competitive final 8 games. I vividly remember the game that year against West Coast at the G when Buddy left the ground with a rib injury, but we took the eventual premiers to the wire in a narrow loss. From there we played competitive footy against all comers and finished with a run of wins against the weaker teams. The point being that we had clearly improves significantly from the previous season and had, in hindsight, laid the foundation for what was to come. I'm not suggesting a repeat of 2002-08 is imminent, but what we're seeing looks sustainable.
The other thing which makes this improvement more likely to be lasting is the quality we're seeing in the twos with our young players. Nick Watson has all the makings of a gun and is clearly above VFL footy, while Hustwaite, Ramsden, Serong, Ward, Bennetts and Ryan are performing at a high level. This bodes well for the future.
Thanks Stuart. It's healthy to have a bit of skepticism like Kingy and keep one hand on the lid. I suspect he's looking at season-long data whereas I only looked from the time we started winning, which is convenient(!) and also assumes that the turning point of results is actually our turning point
Good work mate. I think there’s an entire new article you could spin off of this one too mate. I’m not big on stats but the eye test to me all year suggested we were one of the most pressured sides in the league. Your stats on tackle count vs oppo (won 3 times) vs overall tackle count for the year would back this theory. I felt that sides early worked us out a bit, that if they brought elite pressure it would break us. I’d be super interested in a deep dive on pressure numbers vs Hawthorn this year. I reckon you’ll find overall and almost certainly in first quarter’s we’d be league top 3 if not 1 for pressure against in the first part of the season especially. But I’m just going off my eye and I’ve been wrong before but might be worth an investigation?? Thanks the content mate good read.
This is fantastic Mora! Thanks for the insights into our stats!! The future is looking good and if we keep improving, then the hopefully we can have sustained success …. Can’t wait to see some more cups 🏆🏆🏆
Brilliant stuff Simon and thanks for taking the time to pull that together. You should join Mick Cowan for a gig with the Hawks brains trust. One of your best pieces was the analysis of Ben McKay and Esava Ratugolea as defenders and it showed that they weren't worth the hype or money both were attracting at that time.
Watching the Hawks, it looks like we're a pretty good team. We seem to be able to frequently outnumber the opposition and are able to generate a lot of shots at goals form marks inside 50 (as your stats confirm). IT's nice to see that the stats bear out what our team looks like.
It was interesting to listen to David King this week on SEN who was talking down the Hawks and of the view that Gold Coast were far more likely to improve in 2205 on whatever they do in 2024. Kingy is a huge Champion Data devotee and the two stats he follows most closely is how effectively a team moves the ball and how effectively a team prevents its opposition from moving the ball. I suspect that, based on Kingy's opinion, we are middle of the road in both of those metrics.
What has to be taken into account though is that we are 1.5 seasons into what is one of the most aggressive reshaping of a playing list that we've seen. We weren't expecting to play finals this year and the aim was to see real evidence of improvement that could be sustained. Whether or not we play finals this season is immaterial, what is most satisfying is the genuine improvement that we're seeing.
It is a little similar to season 2006. In that season we started well (unlike this season) but then had a ten or so game run where we lost regularly and, in some cases, heavily, before a very competitive final 8 games. I vividly remember the game that year against West Coast at the G when Buddy left the ground with a rib injury, but we took the eventual premiers to the wire in a narrow loss. From there we played competitive footy against all comers and finished with a run of wins against the weaker teams. The point being that we had clearly improves significantly from the previous season and had, in hindsight, laid the foundation for what was to come. I'm not suggesting a repeat of 2002-08 is imminent, but what we're seeing looks sustainable.
The other thing which makes this improvement more likely to be lasting is the quality we're seeing in the twos with our young players. Nick Watson has all the makings of a gun and is clearly above VFL footy, while Hustwaite, Ramsden, Serong, Ward, Bennetts and Ryan are performing at a high level. This bodes well for the future.
Thanks again for the terrific article.
Thanks Stuart. It's healthy to have a bit of skepticism like Kingy and keep one hand on the lid. I suspect he's looking at season-long data whereas I only looked from the time we started winning, which is convenient(!) and also assumes that the turning point of results is actually our turning point
This is an absolutely cracking read. Hats off
Good work mate. I think there’s an entire new article you could spin off of this one too mate. I’m not big on stats but the eye test to me all year suggested we were one of the most pressured sides in the league. Your stats on tackle count vs oppo (won 3 times) vs overall tackle count for the year would back this theory. I felt that sides early worked us out a bit, that if they brought elite pressure it would break us. I’d be super interested in a deep dive on pressure numbers vs Hawthorn this year. I reckon you’ll find overall and almost certainly in first quarter’s we’d be league top 3 if not 1 for pressure against in the first part of the season especially. But I’m just going off my eye and I’ve been wrong before but might be worth an investigation?? Thanks the content mate good read.
This is fantastic Mora! Thanks for the insights into our stats!! The future is looking good and if we keep improving, then the hopefully we can have sustained success …. Can’t wait to see some more cups 🏆🏆🏆