So, are the Hawks good now?

It's a pretty simple question to ask, but it might not be as simple to answer. Our not so simple Simon Morawetz explains.

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It’s been a while since I’ve been this proud to call myself a Hawks fan.

We’ve largely treaded water since our latest Successful Era, flirting with the dishonourable badge of irrelevance, and had some off field coverage that hasn’t showered our leadership in glory.

Since the dramatic list management decisions of about two years ago, we’ve consoled ourselves with the hopeful rhetoric that this is the path back to our rightful position on the ladder. It was optimism more than assurance.

In the last two months, however, the theoretical promise has become real.

Six wins in eight games (and, of course, one of those two defeats really should have been a win) has shown that we’re not only capable of putting together four strong quarters, but doing it consistently.

Celebrating another win. Rascal pack style.

We’ve been knocking off some decent teams, too.

The Lions and Giants are legitimate top four aspirants. The Bulldogs, Crows, and Saints are the sorts of teams we need to overtake if we want to consider ourselves finals-worthy.

Our younger players are rising, finding their feet at the level.

Our forward line looks as potent as it has in years. Our ruck situation has resolved in the best way possible, with two players seemingly pushing each other to greater heights. And people are, with straight faces, discussing our finals chances for this year.

But rating a team on wins and losses alone is fraught.

It’s worth remembering that three of the six wins have been by a combined total of three goals. This could yet be, as Dermott Brereton claimed a week or so ago, just a “false dawn”.

So I want to look deeper and answer a simple but difficult question: are we actually a good team now?

To answer this, I’ve compared our output during this recent purple patch with some of those you’d consider in the AFL’s upper echelon: Sydney, Carlton, Geelong and, to put our latest win in context, GWS. In particular, are we winning key statistical areas as regularly as them?

How do the Team Stats stack up?

The chart below shows the percentage of games that each team has outperformed its opponent in several key stats. For example, we can see that Sydney has had more disposals that its opponent in 10 our of 12 games (83%). I’m using percentages because I’m only considering Hawthorn’s last eight games, and the other four teams haven’t played the same number of games anyway.

And the results are pretty encouraging:

We have won the contested possession (CP) count in four of the last eight games (50%). That’s going at a rate better than Sydney (42%) and Geelong (31%) have this season, though well behind Carlton’s 85%. We’re also won the clearances four times (50%), at a rate comparable to Sydney (58%), Carlton (54%), and GWS (50%).

Crucially, we are turning clearances into Inside 50s, winning the count in five of the last eight games (63%), better than the other teams listed except Sydney (75%).

We have had more Marks Inside 50 than out opposition five times (63%), similar to the Swans’ 67%. Carlton and their vaunted attack has only won that count in 38% of games.

Sidebar: our productivity inside 50 is such a credit to the coaching staff. Consider that we are missing Mitch Lewis, and none of Jack Gunston, Mabior Chol, Calsher Dear, Jack Ginnivan, or Blake Hardwick were in our forward line last season.

The areas where aren’t winning as regularly are disposals and tackles.

Straight disposal count (I would argue) is the least important of the stats shown. What you do with your kicks is obviously more important than how many of them you get.

Tackles is a curious one, because even though we have only won the tackle count in three of the last eight games (and, in fact, only three times all season) we are still fifth in the league for laying tackles. The opposition just tends to lay more: no team has been tackled more than we have. This tells me our games are tight and contested – perhaps the sort that might be described as having a “finals-like atmosphere”.

The fact that we’re able to string some wins together in such games should be cause for optimism. We are playing a game that stands up under pressure.

Looking at xScore as a way to measure success

I wrote about xScore (xS) as a metric to understand how a team is travelling earlier in the season. In short, it illustrates which team has created higher quality scoring chances. Consistently outscoring your opponent’s xS is an indicator of a team playing god footy – irrespective of whether you’re actually winning matches.

Read Simon’s xScore piece here

In the absence of an official xS metric, I use one developed by @AFLLab. It shows that we have outscored our opposition on xS in five of our six wins – only St Kilda managed to pip us in this metric, by five points. Our xS was higher than Port Adelaide’s in that devastating loss.

Tellingly, in three of our wins, our winning margin ended up lower than our xS winning margin. That shows that on an average day, with both teams playing the same way, we probably end up winning by more!

Regular xS wins indicate we are consistently creating better quality scoring opportunities than our opponents. Our wins have not come by fluke.

What about some Individual Players?

On an individual level, we have several players performing (statistically) at a level usually reserved for players of much higher reputation.

The graph below charts players by average tackles and clearances over the last eight rounds (minimum four games played).

It chops off some outlying players who are literally off the chart: Jack Steele and Matt Rowell (more than 7 tackles per game) and Nick Daicos, Patrick Cripps, Caleb Serong, Jason Horne-Francis, Kieren Briggs, and Adam Treloar (more than 7 clearances per game).

Hawthorn has three of the remaining 19 players averaging 4+ tackles and 5+ clearances in that time: our three inside bulls Worpel, Nash, and Newcombe. Will Day (5.4 and 4.1) narrowly misses the chart.

Forward of the midfield, we have two of the 16 players who have averaged 3+ inside 50s and 1+ mark inside 50 in the last eight weeks: Dylan Moore and Jack Ginnivan. These two high half forwards have been instrumental in developing an improved connection between the midfield and the forward line, so long our Achilles heel.

And as you can see below, there are some handy players among the other 14:

What does it all mean?

Hawthorn has posted some great results in the last two months, but is that enough to declare the arrival of the New Generation?

Well, if the stats are anything to go by, there’s a case for it.

In the time of our winning run, we’ve been beating our opposition in key areas at a rate not dissimilar to some of the best in the business this year. Clearances and Inside 50s have been a particularly strong point.

The connection between the mids and forwards has also been formidable, led by Moore and Ginnivan.

We are far from a finished product, but the underlying stats show that these wins have not been flukes. We are building something inspiring, sustainable, and exciting – and the competition has started to take notice.

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