Thanks Danny, really nice summary. It's been a great year of development for the players you mention and if that group can have a solid pre-season and remain injury free, there should be further growth in 2024, especially in Weddle, Mackenzie and Mitchell. What's equally exciting is that there are several other young / inexperienced players that we can legitimately hope for some real improvement in 2024
- Sam Butler, who was selected ahead of Connor McDonald in the 2021 draft, has shown promise,
- Ned Reeves is only one season into recovery from a shoulder reco and should only improve with a full pre-season and more games,
- CJ has played only 45 games and is a clear talent, but needs to stay injury free,
- Max Ramsden is an exciting, albeit raw prospect who could be that true forward/ruck hybrid that's so hard to find and needs a big finish with Box Hill followed by a pre-season ,
- Brocky, (who knows if he's staying or not, though there's plenty of chatter in WA that he's coming home) but he's young and has shown in multiple games that he can be a quality small forward,
- Bailey McDonald has had a small taste and he too needs a strong finish with Box Hill and a good pre-season,
- Ned Long looks like a ready-made AFL player who could slot into our midfield but understandably lacks opportunity,
- Ryan, Denver and Blancky are showing some promising signs in the back end of this season who also need a good finish followed by a strong pre-season.
So, outside of the crop that are now thriving at AFL level that you've highlighted, there's a solid group behind them and it would be fantastic if one or more of them took the big leap in season 2024. Not to mention that we're yet to see Serong (this season), Stephens and Hustwaite who have performed consistently well for Box Hill. For a team 16th on the ladder, our depth is impressive.
What's equally exciting, is that despite our promising finish to the season we're anchored to 16th on the ladder and will thus have a pick in the top 5, depending on academy selections and any concessions granted to North. And we finally have a quality father-son, with multiple phantom drafts having Will McCabe inside the top 20. This means that as we did last year, we will again bring in two first round selections, one which will be inside the top 6. If we nail those picks and get continued development from the sizeable group of players aged 24 and under, our list will be in an excellent position which will give us leverage to trade players who are not getting opportunity and to pursue free agents on a pure needs basis. There's a lot to look forward to.
I would really like to see what Ned Long can produce after being given with a few full games in a row in the Seniors. Hope he has a solid pre season so he can’t be ignored.
The media analysis of our list management has been "damned if you do; damned if you don't" argument. The debate about the recruitment of Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard had been criticised as "selling the farm" (i.e. draft picks) for no reward and had been probably more vociferous than assessment of the list cull last year. The other aspect to this issue being if you stand still, you will fall behind; there was no realistic alternative.
(As Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data is quick to recite - "Without data, you're just a flog with an opinion" - this may be something to keep in mind.)
Reflecting on how the season has played out for the group listed above, particularly the midfield, the return to form of Worpel; the progression of Newcombe and Day; and the development of Nash (from Round 1 sub to an automatic selection) has probably assisted with the introduction of Mackenzie and continued induction of Ward and Macdonald. (The other factor here has been the injury free season that these four have had, taking into account the manner in which they approach the contest has been exceptional.)
I suspect that the "long term" strategy at the start of the season would have seen Ward, Mackenzie and Macdonald in more centre square contests, given their "lighter" bodies may not have seen our clearance dominance as great as it has been over the season. Allowing these 1st & 2nd year players to operate on the outer ring of the contest will set them up for 2024, taking into account another (or first) full preseason. There are elements here of the "traditional" Hawthorn apprenticeship model where players had a solid grounding in the twos, which Sam went through himself.
As we all realise, progress is not a linear, so it will be interesting to see how 2024 is approached in terms of trades/drafts and probably more significantly, injury. Looking back to the start of the year, if Mitch Lewis had been available for the first part of the year, the debate on the list may have saved a lot of trees/downloads.
Thanks guys, appreciate the comments and opinions. Great insights from you both as usual and very aligned to my thoughts.
I've started putting together a piece around the players at Box Hill who are most likely to make the step up, in a similar way to how Seamus Mitchell did this year. I thought about including them in this piece but it would have made it far too long.
I'm not giving anything away, but I'm most bullish on Ramsden, Serong, Bennetts, Butler and B.Macdonald of the players currently at Box Hill. I have a feeling Brockman may request a trade back home to WA.
Look forward to that article Danny. So many great points in Mick's comment, particularly around our injury free season (wonder how much of that can be attributed to Peter Burge) and how the narrative may have been quite different if Mitch Lewis had not missed the first seven weeks. For better or worse (definitely for the worse during the footy season), I don't live in Melbourne but am in Perth and there is a strong feeling among West Coast people that Brocky is coming home. If that's the case, hopefully he plays two blinders to finish the season and bump up his trade value!
If Brocky doesn’t come in for Wingard, you can probably bank on it. That being the case give Butler the final 2 games even though he hasn’t set the world on fire when given prior opportunity. Do you not fancy Ned Long?
It would also be interesting to analyse who departs at year end. Putting Brockman aside, and of course unfortunately Max Lynch, there are a number who would have been on my exit list but they have resurrected their chances in recent games, Kosi and Morrison. Could they have trade currency or do we need them?
Those I’d let go ( not sure of their contract situation) would be Morris, Jeka, Frost, and possibly Bramble. It wouldn’t break my heart if we traded Morrison if someone wants him as we have a lot of players who can play his role.
I definitely think we need to persist with DGB. I like him as a forward. He has all the skills and can be crazy brave....he just needs at times to be smarter.
Brockman, Lynch (assuming he's going back to WA) and Morris are the certainties. Wingard, if recontacted, will also be on the long-term injury list. We'll probably only take three selections at this year's draft anyway so no need to delist too many. I believe Frost is still contracted. I would keep Jeka on a one-year deal and hope that he can have an injury free pre-season. Players with his athleticism, height and skill are hard to find and given his disruptions this season, he's worth another year. Bramble has had some disposal issues in the seniors but is always in the best for Box Hill and has shown within games in the seniors, that he has something to offer. Despite his late season resurgence, no issues in trading Harry Morrison - perhaps he could be part of a package with Brocky to West Coast?
Lachlan Bramble Chad Wingard Jacob Koschitzke Fergus Greene Ned Long Jai Serong Finn Maginness Tyler Brockman Fionn O’Hara (cat. B rookie) Josh Morris Emerson Jeka Brandon Ryan
2024
Harry Morrison Sam Frost Changkuoth Jiath Conor Nash Jack Scrimshaw Blake Hardwick
Lloyd Meek Cooper Stephens Luke Breust Denver Grainger-Barras James Blanck
Josh Weddle Josh Bennetts (Cat. B rookie) Bailey Macdonald Jack O’Sullivan
Henry Hustwaite Clay Tucker
(Max Lynch - Clay Tucker would have his spot as Lynch was on LT injury list when drafted mid-season.)
Definitely keep Jeka (100% agree within your rationale). I never want to see Frost in the Seniors again, it’s too stressful for supporters and his unpredictability is letting down the team so not fussed if we trade, retire or leave him in the 2’s for 2024. Give him the options and let him make the call.
Thanks Danny, really nice summary. It's been a great year of development for the players you mention and if that group can have a solid pre-season and remain injury free, there should be further growth in 2024, especially in Weddle, Mackenzie and Mitchell. What's equally exciting is that there are several other young / inexperienced players that we can legitimately hope for some real improvement in 2024
- Sam Butler, who was selected ahead of Connor McDonald in the 2021 draft, has shown promise,
- Ned Reeves is only one season into recovery from a shoulder reco and should only improve with a full pre-season and more games,
- CJ has played only 45 games and is a clear talent, but needs to stay injury free,
- Max Ramsden is an exciting, albeit raw prospect who could be that true forward/ruck hybrid that's so hard to find and needs a big finish with Box Hill followed by a pre-season ,
- Brocky, (who knows if he's staying or not, though there's plenty of chatter in WA that he's coming home) but he's young and has shown in multiple games that he can be a quality small forward,
- Bailey McDonald has had a small taste and he too needs a strong finish with Box Hill and a good pre-season,
- Ned Long looks like a ready-made AFL player who could slot into our midfield but understandably lacks opportunity,
- Ryan, Denver and Blancky are showing some promising signs in the back end of this season who also need a good finish followed by a strong pre-season.
So, outside of the crop that are now thriving at AFL level that you've highlighted, there's a solid group behind them and it would be fantastic if one or more of them took the big leap in season 2024. Not to mention that we're yet to see Serong (this season), Stephens and Hustwaite who have performed consistently well for Box Hill. For a team 16th on the ladder, our depth is impressive.
What's equally exciting, is that despite our promising finish to the season we're anchored to 16th on the ladder and will thus have a pick in the top 5, depending on academy selections and any concessions granted to North. And we finally have a quality father-son, with multiple phantom drafts having Will McCabe inside the top 20. This means that as we did last year, we will again bring in two first round selections, one which will be inside the top 6. If we nail those picks and get continued development from the sizeable group of players aged 24 and under, our list will be in an excellent position which will give us leverage to trade players who are not getting opportunity and to pursue free agents on a pure needs basis. There's a lot to look forward to.
I would really like to see what Ned Long can produce after being given with a few full games in a row in the Seniors. Hope he has a solid pre season so he can’t be ignored.
Agree with the above.
The media analysis of our list management has been "damned if you do; damned if you don't" argument. The debate about the recruitment of Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard had been criticised as "selling the farm" (i.e. draft picks) for no reward and had been probably more vociferous than assessment of the list cull last year. The other aspect to this issue being if you stand still, you will fall behind; there was no realistic alternative.
(As Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data is quick to recite - "Without data, you're just a flog with an opinion" - this may be something to keep in mind.)
Reflecting on how the season has played out for the group listed above, particularly the midfield, the return to form of Worpel; the progression of Newcombe and Day; and the development of Nash (from Round 1 sub to an automatic selection) has probably assisted with the introduction of Mackenzie and continued induction of Ward and Macdonald. (The other factor here has been the injury free season that these four have had, taking into account the manner in which they approach the contest has been exceptional.)
I suspect that the "long term" strategy at the start of the season would have seen Ward, Mackenzie and Macdonald in more centre square contests, given their "lighter" bodies may not have seen our clearance dominance as great as it has been over the season. Allowing these 1st & 2nd year players to operate on the outer ring of the contest will set them up for 2024, taking into account another (or first) full preseason. There are elements here of the "traditional" Hawthorn apprenticeship model where players had a solid grounding in the twos, which Sam went through himself.
As we all realise, progress is not a linear, so it will be interesting to see how 2024 is approached in terms of trades/drafts and probably more significantly, injury. Looking back to the start of the year, if Mitch Lewis had been available for the first part of the year, the debate on the list may have saved a lot of trees/downloads.
Thanks guys, appreciate the comments and opinions. Great insights from you both as usual and very aligned to my thoughts.
I've started putting together a piece around the players at Box Hill who are most likely to make the step up, in a similar way to how Seamus Mitchell did this year. I thought about including them in this piece but it would have made it far too long.
I'm not giving anything away, but I'm most bullish on Ramsden, Serong, Bennetts, Butler and B.Macdonald of the players currently at Box Hill. I have a feeling Brockman may request a trade back home to WA.
Look forward to that article Danny. So many great points in Mick's comment, particularly around our injury free season (wonder how much of that can be attributed to Peter Burge) and how the narrative may have been quite different if Mitch Lewis had not missed the first seven weeks. For better or worse (definitely for the worse during the footy season), I don't live in Melbourne but am in Perth and there is a strong feeling among West Coast people that Brocky is coming home. If that's the case, hopefully he plays two blinders to finish the season and bump up his trade value!
The BH review from Saturday wasn’t great on Brocky nor did he train today. He won’t qualify for BH finals.
If the return home is on (appears so), I am not sure any extra games are necessary with Eagles having 1st pick in PSD if trade can’t be done.
In reality, it’s 2 less games for those who will be on the list next year.
If Brocky doesn’t come in for Wingard, you can probably bank on it. That being the case give Butler the final 2 games even though he hasn’t set the world on fire when given prior opportunity. Do you not fancy Ned Long?
Another insightful review Daniel….. Hoping GDB bags a few this weekend given we may be missing some key forward personnel.
Interesting and spot on summary.
It would also be interesting to analyse who departs at year end. Putting Brockman aside, and of course unfortunately Max Lynch, there are a number who would have been on my exit list but they have resurrected their chances in recent games, Kosi and Morrison. Could they have trade currency or do we need them?
Those I’d let go ( not sure of their contract situation) would be Morris, Jeka, Frost, and possibly Bramble. It wouldn’t break my heart if we traded Morrison if someone wants him as we have a lot of players who can play his role.
I definitely think we need to persist with DGB. I like him as a forward. He has all the skills and can be crazy brave....he just needs at times to be smarter.
Exciting times ahead.
Brockman, Lynch (assuming he's going back to WA) and Morris are the certainties. Wingard, if recontacted, will also be on the long-term injury list. We'll probably only take three selections at this year's draft anyway so no need to delist too many. I believe Frost is still contracted. I would keep Jeka on a one-year deal and hope that he can have an injury free pre-season. Players with his athleticism, height and skill are hard to find and given his disruptions this season, he's worth another year. Bramble has had some disposal issues in the seniors but is always in the best for Box Hill and has shown within games in the seniors, that he has something to offer. Despite his late season resurgence, no issues in trading Harry Morrison - perhaps he could be part of a package with Brocky to West Coast?
FYI Contract expires
2023
Lachlan Bramble Chad Wingard Jacob Koschitzke Fergus Greene Ned Long Jai Serong Finn Maginness Tyler Brockman Fionn O’Hara (cat. B rookie) Josh Morris Emerson Jeka Brandon Ryan
2024
Harry Morrison Sam Frost Changkuoth Jiath Conor Nash Jack Scrimshaw Blake Hardwick
Lloyd Meek Cooper Stephens Luke Breust Denver Grainger-Barras James Blanck
Josh Weddle Josh Bennetts (Cat. B rookie) Bailey Macdonald Jack O’Sullivan
Henry Hustwaite Clay Tucker
(Max Lynch - Clay Tucker would have his spot as Lynch was on LT injury list when drafted mid-season.)
Definitely keep Jeka (100% agree within your rationale). I never want to see Frost in the Seniors again, it’s too stressful for supporters and his unpredictability is letting down the team so not fussed if we trade, retire or leave him in the 2’s for 2024. Give him the options and let him make the call.