Preparing for the breakout
As Hawthorn's 2023 season draws to a close, we look at the ongoing development of some of the Hawks younger players, and what we might expect in 2024.
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2023 has been a rollercoaster season for the Hawthorn Football Club, and that can be said without considering everything that has happened off-field.
According to some loud voices in the AFL media landscape, the Hawks decided that the best option for the club was to go backwards in order to go forwards. But as the season closes, it can be argued that maybe the Hawks didn’t go backwards at all.
Mark McKenzie and his list management team were as ruthless last off-season as his young Hawks have been against finals contenders in the past fortnight.
Out the door went a an incredible amount of AFL experience, headlined by former Brownlow Medal winner and three-time Peter Crimmins Medalist Tom Mitchell, who departed to Collingwood. He was closely followed by his friend and running mate Jaeger O’Meara who was shipped off to Fremantle.
Premiership hero Jack Gunston - the one player the Hawks desperately wanted to retain, exercised his rights in free agency, eventually being traded to Brisbane to protect the Lions incoming compensation pick for losing Dan McStay.
The Hawks also moved on from club stalwart Liam Shiels, who retired and then un-retired and joined Alastair Clarkson at North Melbourne, as well as Dan Howe, who joined the mass of former Hawks at Arden Street.
It has been suggested that Hawthorn had engaged in a form of tanking, but in reality, the club was simply was clearing the way for a stable of talented young players to be given more opportunity, more responsibility and more security.
Hawthorn’s off-season moves hastened the emergence of budding young superstars Will Day and Jai Newcombe, who are finally getting their flowers from the wider AFL media, and are a sneaky chance to be included in the All-Australian Squad of 40 players.
Further to this, the moves have had a flow on effect on players who some had written off. Conor Nash to play predominately midfield minutes, enabling him to average a career high 24 disposals per game, while ranking 18th overall in handballs per game, 19th overall in total centre clearances and 9th in total handballs.
James Worpel has gone from football purgatory to averaging 26.1 disposals while ranking 5th in centre clearances per game, 4th in total centre clearances and 8th in total inside 50s in what has clearly been his best season since winning the Peter Crimmins Medal in 2019.
As great as giving opportunities to flourish for Nash and Worpel is, the opportunities for continued minutes and added responsibility for younger players like Josh Ward, Connor Macdonald, Cam Mackenzie, Seamus Mitchell and Josh Weddle was undoubtedly the primary aim.
Josh Ward
The golden boy. Running man Josh Ward has had a solid second season for the Hawks, overcoming injury in the mid part of the season and seeing his overall disposal numbers increasing, but more importantly his impact on games considerably higher than in his debut season.
Ward has played significant roles in wins over Collingwood and North Melbourne, but maybe more importantly, Ward has stood up when others haven’t including gathering 28 disposals in the loss to Carlton in Round 16, and 26 disposals in the loss to Essendon in Round 1.
What can Hawthorn expect from Josh Ward in 2024?
Josh Ward has been likened in playing style to Essendon gun Zach Merrett, and the number bear out similarly over their first two respective seasons. Merrett averaged 15.2 disposals per game in his debut season, and 22.4 disposals per game in his second season, while Ward averaged 19.1 disposals in his first season, and 21.8 disposals this year. There can be an expectation that Ward breaks out in a way that Merrett did in his third season, when he averaged almost 30 disposals per contest.
Connor Macdonald
Playing predominantly across half forward, Connor Macdonald has found ways to impact games throughout the season, and is often involved in the positive passages of Hawthorn’s play throughout a game.
Macdonald’s season breakout was clearly his game against Brisbane, where he registered 28 disposals, two goals and three goal assists in a dominant display.
His burst from the contest and his ability to break open a game has been on display in moments. For Macdonald to really breakout, he will need to ensure his consistency in game improves, which might come with added midfield minutes.
What can Hawthorn expect from Connor Macdonald in 2024?
The sky is the limit for Macdonald, but his first aim will be to break into Hawthorn’s midfield rotation while increasing his involvement and consistency in games. Averaging 17.1 disposals per game as a half forward, Macdonald can have legitimate aims to increase his disposal output by 8-10 disposals per game, while continuing to sharpen his ball use inside forward 50. Macdonald could have a Will Day type impact in 2024 if things break his way.
Seamus Mitchell
The surprise packet. Seamus Mitchell was nowhere near the Hawthorn team at the turn of the year, something that was highlighted by Box Hill Hawks President Ed Sill in his chat with Hawks Insiders in March who suggested that Mitchell would need a string of games at VFL level before being considered for the AFL team.
For the first time in his career, Mitchell’s body allowed him to play multiple games in a row, and it paid dividends, with the forward turned defender registering 14 games for Hawthorn so far in 2023.
It’s been a hand in glove fit for Mitchell and the Hawks with the dashing half back averaging 16.6 disposals and earning himself a Rising Star nomination in a season which he has finally been able to show just why the Hawks recruited him.
What can Hawthorn expect from Seamus Mitchell in 2024?
First and foremost, Mitchell will be looking to put together another close to injury free year next year. His focus should be on increasing his strength to support himself in one-on-one defensive contests, while working on continuing to develop his strengths, utilising his pace and strength off half back. Mitchell should be looking to increase his Inside 50 average from 1.4 per game to 4 per game.
Cam Mackenzie
It’s been a steady start to life at Hawthorn for Cam Mackenzie, with the seventh pick in the 2022 National Draft easing his way into life in a professional environment.
It’s clear to see that Mackenzie has AFL attributes.
He is good in close and can use the ball beautifully by foot when in space, but it is also clear that he has a way to go when it comes to adjusting to the speed of the game, often getting caught with the ball or having to rush his disposal because he hadn’t quite made his decision.
His 22 disposal, two goal game against West Coast will standout as his best performance in his first 14 games, but the Hawks would be more interested in the moments than the overall output and production.
Now that Mackenzie has had a taste, he can finish the year striving for premiership success at Box Hill and attack his second pre-season with full knowledge that there’s a place in the team for him if he can grasp it.
What can Hawthorn expect from Cam Mackenzie in 2024?
A big pre-season. Mackenzie getting through a full pre-season and adjusting to the requirements of life in the Hawthorn midfield is the first and most important step. His focus should be to adapt to the speed of the AFL game, while working hard get involved in as many passages of play as possible. If Mackenzie can increase his output from 13.3 disposals to 20 disposals per game, it will lead to a huge impact for the Hawks. His coaches (and Hawthorn’s forwards) will want Mackenzie to be using the ball heading into the forward 50 whenever possible.
Josh Weddle
It is staggering that a 19-year-old, undersized key defender could come into a somewhat struggling defensive set up and be very clearly one of the best first year players in the AFL.
Understandably, it took Weddle a few weeks to find his feet at Box Hill but after making his debut in Round 7 against the Western Bulldogs, he has not missed a beat.
So impressive has Weddle been that Sam Mitchell has had no hesitation in playing him on some of the best forwards in the competition, Charlie Curnow and Charlie Cameron included.
Weddle’s run-and-gun style, as well as his ability to adapt to a variety of positions and roles, has allowed the youngster to solidify his position in Hawthorn’s best 18. The ceiling for Weddle is currently unknown, but a debut season averaging 17.5 disposals and 4.7 marks is an incredible foundation to build a career on.
What can Hawthorn expect from Josh Weddle in 2024?
Who the heck knows!? Weddle could be and do anything, so it’s hard to know how he will look heading into his second year, after a full pre-season. Weddle will look to retain his run and carry style, while trying to be more controlled with his execution of it. If he can increase the amount of times he gets the ball from 17.5 to 22.5 disposals per game, and get more of it higher up the ground, the Hawks will be delighted.
The continued development of Hawthorn’s younger players has set the club up to take another step in the right direction in 2024, and with allegations of tanking a thing of the past, some of the Hawks young guns are primed to be the next Jai Newcombe or Will Day, but who will it be?
Thanks Danny, really nice summary. It's been a great year of development for the players you mention and if that group can have a solid pre-season and remain injury free, there should be further growth in 2024, especially in Weddle, Mackenzie and Mitchell. What's equally exciting is that there are several other young / inexperienced players that we can legitimately hope for some real improvement in 2024
- Sam Butler, who was selected ahead of Connor McDonald in the 2021 draft, has shown promise,
- Ned Reeves is only one season into recovery from a shoulder reco and should only improve with a full pre-season and more games,
- CJ has played only 45 games and is a clear talent, but needs to stay injury free,
- Max Ramsden is an exciting, albeit raw prospect who could be that true forward/ruck hybrid that's so hard to find and needs a big finish with Box Hill followed by a pre-season ,
- Brocky, (who knows if he's staying or not, though there's plenty of chatter in WA that he's coming home) but he's young and has shown in multiple games that he can be a quality small forward,
- Bailey McDonald has had a small taste and he too needs a strong finish with Box Hill and a good pre-season,
- Ned Long looks like a ready-made AFL player who could slot into our midfield but understandably lacks opportunity,
- Ryan, Denver and Blancky are showing some promising signs in the back end of this season who also need a good finish followed by a strong pre-season.
So, outside of the crop that are now thriving at AFL level that you've highlighted, there's a solid group behind them and it would be fantastic if one or more of them took the big leap in season 2024. Not to mention that we're yet to see Serong (this season), Stephens and Hustwaite who have performed consistently well for Box Hill. For a team 16th on the ladder, our depth is impressive.
What's equally exciting, is that despite our promising finish to the season we're anchored to 16th on the ladder and will thus have a pick in the top 5, depending on academy selections and any concessions granted to North. And we finally have a quality father-son, with multiple phantom drafts having Will McCabe inside the top 20. This means that as we did last year, we will again bring in two first round selections, one which will be inside the top 6. If we nail those picks and get continued development from the sizeable group of players aged 24 and under, our list will be in an excellent position which will give us leverage to trade players who are not getting opportunity and to pursue free agents on a pure needs basis. There's a lot to look forward to.
Agree with the above.
The media analysis of our list management has been "damned if you do; damned if you don't" argument. The debate about the recruitment of Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard had been criticised as "selling the farm" (i.e. draft picks) for no reward and had been probably more vociferous than assessment of the list cull last year. The other aspect to this issue being if you stand still, you will fall behind; there was no realistic alternative.
(As Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data is quick to recite - "Without data, you're just a flog with an opinion" - this may be something to keep in mind.)
Reflecting on how the season has played out for the group listed above, particularly the midfield, the return to form of Worpel; the progression of Newcombe and Day; and the development of Nash (from Round 1 sub to an automatic selection) has probably assisted with the introduction of Mackenzie and continued induction of Ward and Macdonald. (The other factor here has been the injury free season that these four have had, taking into account the manner in which they approach the contest has been exceptional.)
I suspect that the "long term" strategy at the start of the season would have seen Ward, Mackenzie and Macdonald in more centre square contests, given their "lighter" bodies may not have seen our clearance dominance as great as it has been over the season. Allowing these 1st & 2nd year players to operate on the outer ring of the contest will set them up for 2024, taking into account another (or first) full preseason. There are elements here of the "traditional" Hawthorn apprenticeship model where players had a solid grounding in the twos, which Sam went through himself.
As we all realise, progress is not a linear, so it will be interesting to see how 2024 is approached in terms of trades/drafts and probably more significantly, injury. Looking back to the start of the year, if Mitch Lewis had been available for the first part of the year, the debate on the list may have saved a lot of trees/downloads.