10 Comments
Mar 12Liked by Mick Cowan

My take away from his comments were that they were transitioning towards performance but there is still an emphasis on development. And so part of this exercise is ensuring you get enough games into the younger ones. So I would be up weighting anyone 1-3 years in and down weighting anyone 7+ years. On that basis suspect they will try and get more games into HH, Ryan, Watson etc thank you’ve got and the likes of bruest and especially Gunston should be railing off even more markedly to make room for their games. So I would have a change in emphasis in a couple of areas even if we pay for it on the scoreboard this is the year to do it.

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Good work, Mick. Perhaps an update after Round 7 (we’ll have a few soldiers back) and after the Bye. Some guys currently on 0 will be hoping for a last chance eg Butler

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Would prioritize Mitchell and B. Mac over Maginness

Ryan should get a couple toward the back half

Not sure Weddle plays every game - will need some management

DGB gets games in second half of season.

Not sure Reeves plays every game either

Mids look alright

Forwards alright but will be interesting to see what they do with Wingard. Surely Butler gets another crack.

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Very interesting analysis Mick. Hard to argue with your first shot but undoubtedly the season will serve up change.

If I was doing it I’d have a few games allocated to the likes of Butler, Phillips, Mitchell, MacDonald if for no other reason than by seasons end we will have needed to see their value for being retained going forward.

Your next assessment will be interesting.

Keep up the good work.

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Great crack at an extremely hard task Mick! Last season we had 4 players who played all 23 games. There’s bound to be some injury games (concussion injuries impacted 29% of players league wide last season) although it is very hard to say ‘Blake Hardwick will miss 2 games through concussion’ when forecasting.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the forecasts put in place for each individual player tally up to a number far greater than 529 as history tells us we will lose a chunk of games to injury this season. We just hope that the injuries are minor and don’t derail the development of any player who starts to get on a roll!

I’d like to see another version where you distribute another 40-50 games across those with zeros to account for injuries.

As you said, by round 7 we will have some idea about where those 50 games will come from!

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Fair enough Mick. It’s all theory I guess but is an interesting perspective as to how teams can be selected. Love your informed insights.

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