Assessing 'Rule 529'

Putting the jigsaw pieces together to create the full picture

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In the most recent HI podcast (listen below), Danny and Andrew caught up with Rob McCartney, who referred to the fact that there are 529 games (23 players for 23 games) available across the season.

This figure requires a balance for the coaching staff to ensure that the team will be competitive in each game as well as being able to develop the emerging players at the same time.

For HI regulars, there is an interesting personal strategic exercise to play with by applying “Rule 529”. 

Looking at the fundamentals of the exercise, it would mean that the structure of the team would have to be established as a starting point — therefore how would the 23 spots in the team be divided among the positions on the field.

The Split

I would suggest that the following would be an appropriate basis for any analysis:

This leads to the allocation of games to each position on the field, and then a determination of the players within each position. This is where the activity becomes challenging when you look at the immediate goal of winning games versus the future and development opportunities for emerging players. 

As McCartney said on the podcast, the recognition of current form and future development meant that the Football Department heavyweights had only looked at forecasting the first half of the season. 

For the sake of this exercise, let’s do the whole season and perhaps we can re-visit it at the mid-season bye or thereabouts.

(Note: For the following, I have also tried to align players in the group that they may be internally competing with for game time.)

Rucks (23 games)

While this a contentious issue among the HI regulars, listening to the podcast, McCartney provided what I took to be a “quiet” insight into the ruck role. 

Some of the Insiders may disagree, but there is a need to listen to those who are closer to the coalface than those of us who are on the other side of the fence or outside the four walls as they say.                

Backs (161 games)

This is where the activity becomes interesting. 

Considering that James Blanck is out for the year and Denver Grainger-Barras is not a guarantee to return this season (he may be an addition at the mid-season break), the allocation among the remainder of the backs does create a real now versus future dilemma.

There are certainties who you’d expect to play the entire season barring injury or suspension on both the basis of experience and development.

When you look at the allocation of 161 games among the group, the tagger role for Finn Maginness may become a strategic response — purely on the numbers as much as anything. This depends on the priority of winning games as opposed to future development which would then change the number of games Maginness gets over Ethan Phillips or Jai Serong.

Currently, it is hard to allocate games to Bailey Macdonald and Seamus Mitchell given their interrupted pre-season preparation.  Equally, they would be taking games from Karl Amon and Jarman Impey who I would expect to play for structural reasons whenever available — unless their form diminishes significantly.

Midfield (184 games)

If you thought that allocating games to the backs was hard, welcome to the midfield — bearing in mind that they have more games to be shared among this part of the ground.

With two Peter Crimmins Medal winners (Will Day and James Worpel) and two of the current place finishers (Jai Newcombe and Conor Nash), the engine room was the shining light of 2023, and I think they have credits in the bank.

This means that 46% of the games are taken up by these four players, even with Day missing the first six games which may actually be a pessimistic forecast.

I would hope that Connor Macdonald — being in his third season and noting McCartney’s comments — would be able to play out the season without needing to be rested. 

The implication of this would be the opportunities for Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie and Henry Hustwaite as other inside mids.  I see Hustwaite competing with Nash on size/shape which again was something McCartney alluded to in the pod.

Should the return of Changkuoth Jiath be interrupted it may alleviate some pressure. However, again listening to McCartney, Jiath’s speed and agility is something that others don’t bring to the side. This means when he is available, he will be given opportunities.

The need for outside players would mean Massimo D’Ambrosio and Harry Morrison may look to share about 30 games between them. As to who is selected may be a strategic choice. For example, when we have a defensive focus Morrison may be selected and when we go in with an attacking focus D’Ambrosio could get the nod.

Forwards (161 games)

Again, with the plethora of small forwards, the allocation becomes a real balancing act between the now and for the future.

To allow for the future, I suspect both Luke Breust and Jack Gunston will be managed quite regularly across the season. The other caveat here is the allocation of games to Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol who I would like to allocate full seasons to — but for sake of the future I’ve ‘managed’ them for a couple of games (hopefully later in the season). This would also allow Max Ramsden to get a more than a couple of games.  Again, his allocation could be increased with more management of the old guard.

The allocation of games to Nick Watson will be a wait and see — again noting McCartney’s comments meaning I’ve probably gone on the lower side. I had originally allocated Chad Wingard two games with Watson on 12 games, however Wingard will be a reassessment at the mid-season break.

It’s a difficult excercise to undertake and how the balance of games plays out will be one of the more interesting watches in 2024.

We will look to revisit these throughout the year to look at how our predictions have played out in applying ‘Rule 529’.

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