A failed pre-finals test
Almost our best 23. A finals-like test. A 67-point reality check.
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R22: HAWKS 8.10 (58) lost to BRISBANE 18.17 (125)
We’ve spent most of this season waiting for a night like this. Not the result, obviously. The opportunity.
A near full-strength Hawthorn, three weeks out from finals, walking into the Gabba to face the back-to-back premiers in a game that Sam Mitchell said afterwards had the intensity and feeling of a final.
We wanted to find out whether we were ready. We were not.
This was comfortably one of our worst performances of the season. We were outmuscled, lost too many one-on-ones and completely lost our composure when Brisbane turned up the heat. The most worrying part? We can’t blame the midfield. We won clearances by 11 and centre clearances by four. For a period in the third quarter we’d actually had more inside 50s.
And we were still getting belted.
We also can’t point towards some cavalry coming back. Conor Nash aside, this was basically it. Our most experienced players were out there and too many of them had bad nights at exactly the wrong time of the season.
Brisbane were excellent as reigning premiers tend to be. But we’re well beyond the point where simply acknowledging the quality of the opposition is enough.
If we genuinely think this team can win a premiership, these are the teams we need to beat … or, at the very least, compete with.
The good news: we have two more rounds to get our heads right ahead of finals. And while questions still remain, a big statement win against Collingwood and we can get our season back on track.
🕵🏻♂️ Observations
1. This wasn’t a midfield loss. Hawthorn won the clearances by 11 and centre clearances by four. We had enough football and enough opportunities to keep ourselves in the game. What happened after we won it was the problem.
2. Brisbane’s pressure completely destroyed our composure. Fumbles, missed handballs, short kicks straight to opponents and even uncontested marks bouncing off our chests. The actual pressure was enormous, but the perceived pressure became just as damaging.
3. We lost too many one-on-ones. This was the part that should concern us heading towards September. Brisbane were stronger and more composed in the big moments, while too many of our senior players lost contests we’d expect them to win.
4. The forward-half pressure was as bad as we’ve seen all year. For all the territory we generated, Brisbane were far too comfortable getting the ball back out. When our forward line wasn’t marking it, we weren’t making life difficult enough for them afterwards.
5. The forward structure has become a legitimate question. Jack Gunston still kicked three, but the issue isn’t Gunston himself. Against good defensive sides, the disconnected model can leave our other tall forwards struggling for influence and our smalls too far from goal to provide the pressure that makes us dangerous.
6. Cam Mackenzie gave us something. In a night when plenty of senior players struggled with the heat, Mackenzie looked composed, strong through contact and willing to take the game on. If nothing else, we learned something encouraging about a player yet to experience finals football.
7. This was essentially our Best 23. Hawthorn went into the game with an average age of 26.2 and 131 games of experience. Conor Nash was the notable absentee, but there isn’t a group of established stars waiting at Box Hill to transform this side in September.
8. The Wizard went goalless for the first time in 30 games. He’s bailed us out plenty this year including against North last week. Stop the Wiz stop Hawthorn?
9. The margin matters. Good teams lose games. Brisbane themselves were smashed by Carlton a week earlier. But getting beaten by 67 points this close to finals, with this much experience on the park, is difficult to wave away.
👏 Things We Like To See: Weaving through traffic
In one of his best games for the season Massimo D’Ambrosio tried his guts out, and it was this piercing run through traffic that was a clear highlight. Was part of the play prior and ended up receiving the ball 35 metres out, stopped, propped and elduded five Lion players to slot through a much needed goal
👏 Things We Like To See: Jars the goalkicker
Fourth game in a row that Jars has kicked a goal - and his fifth for the season. Nothing gets the juices flowing quite like Jars running off half back, getting to about 60 metres out, receiving a handball and taking a flying shot as he streams inside 50. More of it in 2026 please.
👏 Things We Like To See: The death of the GABBA
The good news is that from after the Brisbane Olympics in 2032 the GABBA will be no more. What a horrible hunting ground it has been for us in recent times. Since 1993 we have played 21 matches at the GABBA only managing six wins. Indeed since the turn of the century we have registered three wins from 14 matches, and it continues to be a stinker of a stadium to visit. So we really really really will love to see … the destruction of the stadium, and us never having to play there again.
⭐ Best on Ground: Cam Mackenzie
The numbers might point you towards Jai Newcombe or Josh Ward, but Mackenzie was our best. What stood out wasn’t simply finding the football. It was how he handled the pressure that caused so many teammates problems. One of the knocks on Mackenzie early in his career was that he could get caught trying to do too much with the ball. That’s changing. He’s stronger through contact, more willing to take the first option and, when it isn’t there, increasingly capable of breaking free and driving through the contest himself. He’s never played a final. Based on what we saw at the Gabba, we’re looking forward to seeing what he can do in one.
🔥 Unsung Hero: Massimo D’Ambrosio
Massimo kept working when the game was going badly around him and was one of the few Hawks who continued trying to provide some run and connection. It wasn’t a night for pretty numbers or honourable mentions. But when you’re looking for players who kept having a crack while Brisbane were pulling the game apart, Massimo deserves some recognition.
💫 Rising Star:
We’ve intentionally left this one blank. Eight players have debuted for Hawthorn this year. Not one of them played on Friday night.
That was our most experienced side of the season and, for all the talent on the park, there was something missing. As we discussed on the pod, the kids have brought a fearlessness, energy and enthusiasm every time they’ve been given an opportunity.
We’re not suggesting we throw out our best 23 three weeks before finals. But after watching an experienced Hawthorn side look so tentative under pressure, maybe injecting some youth — whether it’s Noah Mraz, Ollie Greeves, Jack Dalton or someone else — is exactly what we need.
Sometimes not knowing any better can be a good thing.
😬 Under Pressure: The forward line
This is bigger than one player.
Jack Gunston kicked three goals, so pointing the finger at him would completely miss the issue. The question is whether the forward structure built around getting Gunston isolated can consistently hold up against the best defensive teams. We’ve now seen good sides find ways to disrupt it.
Brisbane denied us the space we wanted, Harris Andrews controlled the air, Mitch Lewis struggled to influence the game and Mabior Chol played arguably his worst game in the brown and gold. More concerning was what happened when we didn’t mark it. Our forward-half pressure was almost non-existent for long periods and Brisbane repeatedly escaped without paying a price.
That’s the trade-off we need to examine. When the structure works, Gunston is having an extraordinary season and Watson is one of the most dangerous small forwards in the competition. When an opposition takes those avenues away, where do the goals come from?
Watson going goalless for the first time in 30 games shouldn’t result in the entire forward line grinding to a halt.
🎤 Sammy Said What!?
On the performance:
“I thought we were outclassed tonight. I think we’re better than that.”
On getting a finals-like examination:
“It felt on the bench, in the early part of the game, the first quarter and a half probably felt like a final. It had that environment. It had that feeling.”
On what went wrong despite winning enough of the ball:
“We ended up having a pretty good clearance night against a very good clearance team. So there were some things that come out of the game that you think, okay, that’s something we can work with, but realistically we weren’t good enough tonight.”
On being close to full strength:
“That’s amongst the disappointing things about tonight.”
And on what comes next:
“We’re better than that and we’re going to have to prove it.”
🗣️ Final Word: Massimo D’Ambrosio
“I think we just got beaten around the contest, which was kind of our sole focus for the game and we just got beaten by what we know. We will go to work and hopefully turn it around next week because we really need to step up.
“Our pressure around the ball was just not up to the standard tonight and I think in the third quarter we layed like four tackles for the quarter, so when you can’t put pressure on the opposition it is going to be really hard to get the ball and create opportunities.
“I think we need to prepare well, we will go to work as we have an eight day break, so looking forward to recovery and getting everyone’s body right and then going to work at training. We need to work on a few things - preparation brings confidence to go into the game this week so looking forward to the challenge.”
❓ Question of the Week
📆 Next Week
Collingwood. Saturday night.
If there’s one thing capable of changing the mood around Hawthorn very quickly, it’s beating the Pies.
Last time we met, we somehow walked away with a draw. We dominated centre clearances 7-0 in the opening quarter and generated plenty of opportunities across the night, but kicked 13.15 while Collingwood made almost everything count with 15.3. It took Dylan Moore’s goal after the siren to get us level at 93-all.
Sound familiar?
Once again, we had enough of the footy to win and didn’t get enough reward for it. The difference on Friday night was Brisbane eventually made us pay to the tune of 67 points.
So this isn’t just another big game. It’s a chance to answer two questions at once: can we respond after getting belted by a genuine contender, and can we finally turn territorial dominance against Collingwood into a win?
After the Gabba, we need both. Critical is an understatement as losing could see us drop out of the top 4.
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It’s hard to know what to make of a game like that when so many players have their worst game for a very long time and for some, their career – most notably Watson, Day, Chol, Barass, Conor Mac and Amon. Coupled with a diabolical error rate, it meant that we were never going to be able to compete and that our defence was going to be under enormous pressure. However, that is two games where we have been absolutely dominated by a top six team and indicates that our team and game style is perhaps not at the level required to beat the better teams.
When you lose by 11 goals, which was actually a flattering margin, you can’t really look back at a few missed shots as important, but in the first quarter, there were 3 very good opportunities that would have allowed us to stay very much in the contest, show that we’d weathered that initial onslaught without any scoreboard damage and put a small amount of scoreboard pressure on Brisbane. However, MacDonald did not score, and Butler and Morrison missed shots that just should have been kicked. We shouldn’t have been surprised though, as this has been a pattern all season.
Perhaps it’s just the eye and may not be borne out by the data but the last two weeks have seen a very high error rate. Even the first quarter in the recent game against Essendon was characterised by overuse and execution errors. Right now, this is the biggest watch on our game and these past two weeks has looked a little like the early rounds of 2024, where we repeatedly made basic execution errors.
Why do we so rarely try and take something away from the opposition? It is a feature of Geelong’s approach and both Sydney and Brisbane endeavour to deny the opposition one of their key strengths. To allow Andrews to play without any accountability was hard to understand and with Butler in the team, he shaped as an ideal match up for Zorko – similar to the role played by McKenna on Impey. This week let’s see Butler play on Josh Daicos and Bailey MacDonald play on McCreery or Schulz.
Against a midfield with the depth of talent that Brisbane has, our midfield looked thin. Each of Newcombe, Ward and MacKenzie were ok, but with Day having an off night, and Morrison barely getting the ball, we were swamped and the sheer volume that Brisbane’s midfield accumulated did show our midfield as being thin. For those advocating the recruitment of Merrett, this was an example of why that is so.
The non-Massimo wing is a problem. Morrison’s past fortnight has been poor, averaging 12 possessions and having had a total of just 9 kicks. Harry is mid-sized, lacks leg speed, has average skills and isn’t versatile. Just who plays on that wing is a piece of the puzzle that remains unsolved. Does Bailey Mac come in and play a lock down role on the opposition’s dangerous small forward (similar to Tholstrup of Melbourne) which releases Amon to a wing and allows Hardwick to play a more creative role? Do we go back to McCabe as a tall winger with a real point of difference or Dalton with his endurance and neat left foot kicking? Persisting with Harry is not the answer.
There are other questions. Whilst we did well at clearances over the night, a question remains as to whether that 23rd position is best filled by Reeves? Is the disconnected forward role sustainable against good teams? Was a point of difference and had an element of surprise earlier in the season but is now something that opposition sides can plan for and are planning for. Even lowly Richmond was able to shut it down. What has happened to Josh Weddle? Just over 12 months ago, Geelong rated him as one of our most important players sending a stopper to him in the prelim final. His timing in going for marks is right off, his disposal by hand and foot is poor and his run from behind is not often seen. Unlocking him for the remainder of the season will be key to just how far we go. Why was Connor MacDonald, one of our very best midfielders when used in that role not given meaningful game time on ball? Why do we have games where the level of pressure we apply is very low and at times looks to be non-existent?
Last season, in round 20, Gold Coast defeated Brisbane by 66 points. They met in the second week of the finals and Brisbane turned the tables with a 50+ point victory. We live in hope!
What was learnt?
1. There is no Plan C for the forward 50 – With Plan A based around Gunston and Plan B working around Lewis/Chol, this game highlighted that there is no Plan C for the forward line structure. With Plan A and in part the midfield structure, playing high half forwards means that there is an alternative avenue inside forward 50 with those three plus Watson. The other aspect of the A & B plans is that the capacity to place defensive pressure inside fprward 50 creating repeat entries or to hold the ball inside the scoring zone is an imperative. At ¾ time, the inside 50 count was equal this is to ignore that ours resembled what we see more often at Box Hill, but there is still an onus on the forwards to compete to keep the ball inside our F50 arc.
2. When the defence lost their anchor, the flotilla was washed away on the tide – Unfortunately with Barrass playing his poorest game for the brown and gold, this then meant that the other defenders were thrown out of whack by the fact that he wasn’t able to lockdown at least one of the Lions forwards. To be fair, the agility of the Lions’ medium talls are the worst match up for our defenders, Barrass, Battle and Sicily are not good lateral movers with Amon undersized. Interestingly, in the first quarter, when we were under the pump early, when Weddle came off the bench, he looked to provide a better match up and running option in the early part of the game.
3. The leg rope was too elastic one way and too tight the other way – When looking at 45-degree option, the Lions were able to hit their targets as we provided too much distance between the two players being covered whereas we failed to see the Lions play with a tighter leg rope and knock off our kicks/handballs, leaving us vulnerable on turnover. They seemed to throw out the bait and we fell for it too often.
4. Midfield won the clearance contest, but the speed on the outside was shown up – There is no doubt that the inside mids are competitive across the league, however our capacity to spread from contest with leg speed remains an issue. This weakness is exacerbated by turning over the ball in vulnerable positions, particularly through the midfield as players are caught offside looking to create. This is the area of the game plan that Day has a direct impact on as he quick from the midfield contests.
5. The oppo analysis would have noted the lack of pressure exerted by the Lions last week & wouldn’t expect a repeat performance – As was noted last week, the Lions finished without a fit player on the bench in the last quarter and looked to put the cue in the rack, so they would’ve been focused on establishing a pressure game as premiers. In the first 10 minutes of the game, we were going higher than 1:1 kick to handball ratio which was just inviting trouble to come our way. (1st qrt 15:08 mins to go 10 kicks to 27 handballs for 2 inside 50s to 6).
Observations:
• Mackenzie and D’Ambrosio were the only midfielders to have more kicks than handballs
• When Hardwick spoiled Impey in a marking contest late in 2nd quarter allowing Lohmann to walk into goal, you knew things were out of whack!
• Unusual for us to allow a set play kick out to be as successful as the Lions were able to instigate.
• Credit to D’Ambrosio for selling the candy for his goal – not sure what the Lions’ oppo analyst was doing. He did something similar late in the game in general play.
• Ginnivan worked as hard as anyone in the team, but his ability to finish off his work was poor which has become a bit of a trend in the past month.
• The magnet moves for the last quarter were a little puzzling with Lewis on a wing, then Day and Weddle forward – these just didn’t appear to be a learning experience on any level. (Note: Day may have been a workload management strategy.)
• Forward stoppages have dried up as a scoring source.
• The VFL draw didn’t do us any favours as Amon looked short of a run, so it may have been handy to ease him back in, but it wasn’t possible this week and the end of the season is fast approaching.
• 0 disposals quarters – 2nd Chol, Reeves; 4th Barrass
• Tackle count by quarter – 12/10; 14/14; 5/15; 18/11 (49/50).
• I50 count/score by quarter 14/13 (1.3/2.3); 17/15 (3.1/6.5); 11/14 (2.4/5.4); 8/13 (2.2/5.5) (65/50)
• Disposal count: 100/88; 81/98; 85/94; 83/112 (349/394). K/H by qrt: 51/49; 42/39; 55/30; 52/41
• TOG % Bottom 5 (plus rucks): Reeves 49%; Meek 51%; Day 72%; Mackenzie 72%; Lewis 73%; Amon 75%; Butler 75%; D’Ambrosio 75%; Ward 71% (Battle 97% highest.)
• Kicking efficiency (DE): Barrass 100%/2 (100); Sicily 90%/10 (83); Impey 88%/8 (78); Weddle 86%/7 (70); Hardwick 85%/13 (90)
Butler 30%/10 (43); Newcombe 33%/9 (68); Watson 34%/3 (78); Morrison 40%/5 (75); Moore 44%/9 (68).
Starting 4: (CBA/% total CBA/CC)
1st Qrt.: Meek (17/57/3) Newcombe (22/73/1) Ward (16/53/2) Day (12/40/1)
2nd Qrt: Meek Newcombe Ward Mackenzie (20/67/4)
3rd Qrt: Meek Newcombe Day Mackenzie
4th Qrt: Reeves (11/37/1) Newcombe Mackenzie Macdonald (9/30/0)
Chol (2/7/0) Watson (6/20/2) Butler (4/13/1) Moore (1/3/0)
(Ginnivan: 1 centre clearance)
30 CBAs/16 clearances (Opposition:12 Neutral:2)
By quarter: 4/0; 5/4; 3/4; 4/4
Even with a managed 4th quarter, given the low CBA count in the 1st, Newcombe led the CBAs. Winning the centre clearances didn't result in scoreboard pressure and forwards weren't able to create territory pressure to allow repeat opportunities and defensive structure to be set up. The rucks combined to for 25% of centre clearances, which was probably reflected in the quality of the clearances and the midfielders didn't connect with their entries either - Mackenzie had 4 CCs. 4th quarter was experimentation with Day out of the rotation and Butler going in late. Watson was 1/1 on his "flying" clearances - cost us a goal early as he was the defensive sweeper. Ward was out of the rotation in 3rd quarter yet played 68% TOG & 2nd highest disposals for the quarter. Meek & Reeves went 59/41 TOG%. Chol's cameo may have had more to do with his lack of opportunities as a forward. Both teams effectively ran 6 mids through the CBAs.
Watch for the season
Gunston 3 goals – 1 lead; 1 free; 1 contested mark
Issue for the week:
Working out how to ensure that the forward line can converts its chances as the Pies were the first to unpick the “disconnected forward” with their mids pushing back deep, leaving Elliott with room inside their F5O for slingshot opportunities. The other more significant aspect of this issue is for those with ball in hand making good decisions going inside F50.