It’s hard to know what to make of a game like that when so many players have their worst game for a very long time and for some, their career – most notably Watson, Day, Chol, Barass, Conor Mac and Amon. Coupled with a diabolical error rate, it meant that we were never going to be able to compete and that our defence was going to be under enormous pressure. However, that is two games where we have been absolutely dominated by a top six team and indicates that our team and game style is perhaps not at the level required to beat the better teams.
When you lose by 11 goals, which was actually a flattering margin, you can’t really look back at a few missed shots as important, but in the first quarter, there were 3 very good opportunities that would have allowed us to stay very much in the contest, show that we’d weathered that initial onslaught without any scoreboard damage and put a small amount of scoreboard pressure on Brisbane. However, MacDonald did not score, and Butler and Morrison missed shots that just should have been kicked. We shouldn’t have been surprised though, as this has been a pattern all season.
Perhaps it’s just the eye and may not be borne out by the data but the last two weeks have seen a very high error rate. Even the first quarter in the recent game against Essendon was characterised by overuse and execution errors. Right now, this is the biggest watch on our game and these past two weeks has looked a little like the early rounds of 2024, where we repeatedly made basic execution errors.
Why do we so rarely try and take something away from the opposition? It is a feature of Geelong’s approach and both Sydney and Brisbane endeavour to deny the opposition one of their key strengths. To allow Andrews to play without any accountability was hard to understand and with Butler in the team, he shaped as an ideal match up for Zorko – similar to the role played by McKenna on Impey. This week let’s see Butler play on Josh Daicos and Bailey MacDonald play on McCreery or Schulz.
Against a midfield with the depth of talent that Brisbane has, our midfield looked thin. Each of Newcombe, Ward and MacKenzie were ok, but with Day having an off night, and Morrison barely getting the ball, we were swamped and the sheer volume that Brisbane’s midfield accumulated did show our midfield as being thin. For those advocating the recruitment of Merrett, this was an example of why that is so.
The non-Massimo wing is a problem. Morrison’s past fortnight has been poor, averaging 12 possessions and having had a total of just 9 kicks. Harry is mid-sized, lacks leg speed, has average skills and isn’t versatile. Just who plays on that wing is a piece of the puzzle that remains unsolved. Does Bailey Mac come in and play a lock down role on the opposition’s dangerous small forward (similar to Tholstrup of Melbourne) which releases Amon to a wing and allows Hardwick to play a more creative role? Do we go back to McCabe as a tall winger with a real point of difference or Dalton with his endurance and neat left foot kicking? Persisting with Harry is not the answer.
There are other questions. Whilst we did well at clearances over the night, a question remains as to whether that 23rd position is best filled by Reeves? Is the disconnected forward role sustainable against good teams? Was a point of difference and had an element of surprise earlier in the season but is now something that opposition sides can plan for and are planning for. Even lowly Richmond was able to shut it down. What has happened to Josh Weddle? Just over 12 months ago, Geelong rated him as one of our most important players sending a stopper to him in the prelim final. His timing in going for marks is right off, his disposal by hand and foot is poor and his run from behind is not often seen. Unlocking him for the remainder of the season will be key to just how far we go. Why was Connor MacDonald, one of our very best midfielders when used in that role not given meaningful game time on ball? Why do we have games where the level of pressure we apply is very low and at times looks to be non-existent?
Last season, in round 20, Gold Coast defeated Brisbane by 66 points. They met in the second week of the finals and Brisbane turned the tables with a 50+ point victory. We live in hope!
Stuart, another of your finest summaries that always gives the HI Community a very good read and "food for thought" so I thank you very much. To quote Liam from the Hawks Soaring to New Heights podcast with Tim he said, "it's nice to sit down with a friend and talk footy" and that's how I feel on this forum with the quality of both the HI Team and Community with their articles and comments! We can only hope that the boys can benefit from an eight-day break and do a complete 180 and come out firing on Saturday night because if they don't, they will face even more scrutiny than what they have copped this week after their horrible performance against the Lions. No pressure but, 90,000 members will be counting on a turnaround against the Pies ... GO HAWKS!!!
Thanks Tammy. I love to read the thoughts of others who post and it's awesome to share our passion for the Hawks with the HI Community. I spend so much time thinking about the Hawks, to be able to release it to the HI forum is quite therapeutic! It's a stressful two weeks ahead, fingers crossed the boys can do the job and lock away 3rd spot!
1. There is no Plan C for the forward 50 – With Plan A based around Gunston and Plan B working around Lewis/Chol, this game highlighted that there is no Plan C for the forward line structure. With Plan A and in part the midfield structure, playing high half forwards means that there is an alternative avenue inside forward 50 with those three plus Watson. The other aspect of the A & B plans is that the capacity to place defensive pressure inside fprward 50 creating repeat entries or to hold the ball inside the scoring zone is an imperative. At ¾ time, the inside 50 count was equal this is to ignore that ours resembled what we see more often at Box Hill, but there is still an onus on the forwards to compete to keep the ball inside our F50 arc.
2. When the defence lost their anchor, the flotilla was washed away on the tide – Unfortunately with Barrass playing his poorest game for the brown and gold, this then meant that the other defenders were thrown out of whack by the fact that he wasn’t able to lockdown at least one of the Lions forwards. To be fair, the agility of the Lions’ medium talls are the worst match up for our defenders, Barrass, Battle and Sicily are not good lateral movers with Amon undersized. Interestingly, in the first quarter, when we were under the pump early, when Weddle came off the bench, he looked to provide a better match up and running option in the early part of the game.
3. The leg rope was too elastic one way and too tight the other way – When looking at 45-degree option, the Lions were able to hit their targets as we provided too much distance between the two players being covered whereas we failed to see the Lions play with a tighter leg rope and knock off our kicks/handballs, leaving us vulnerable on turnover. They seemed to throw out the bait and we fell for it too often.
4. Midfield won the clearance contest, but the speed on the outside was shown up – There is no doubt that the inside mids are competitive across the league, however our capacity to spread from contest with leg speed remains an issue. This weakness is exacerbated by turning over the ball in vulnerable positions, particularly through the midfield as players are caught offside looking to create. This is the area of the game plan that Day has a direct impact on as he quick from the midfield contests.
5. The oppo analysis would have noted the lack of pressure exerted by the Lions last week & wouldn’t expect a repeat performance – As was noted last week, the Lions finished without a fit player on the bench in the last quarter and looked to put the cue in the rack, so they would’ve been focused on establishing a pressure game as premiers. In the first 10 minutes of the game, we were going higher than 1:1 kick to handball ratio which was just inviting trouble to come our way. (1st qrt 15:08 mins to go 10 kicks to 27 handballs for 2 inside 50s to 6).
Observations:
• Mackenzie and D’Ambrosio were the only midfielders to have more kicks than handballs
• When Hardwick spoiled Impey in a marking contest late in 2nd quarter allowing Lohmann to walk into goal, you knew things were out of whack!
• Unusual for us to allow a set play kick out to be as successful as the Lions were able to instigate.
• Credit to D’Ambrosio for selling the candy for his goal – not sure what the Lions’ oppo analyst was doing. He did something similar late in the game in general play.
• Ginnivan worked as hard as anyone in the team, but his ability to finish off his work was poor which has become a bit of a trend in the past month.
• The magnet moves for the last quarter were a little puzzling with Lewis on a wing, then Day and Weddle forward – these just didn’t appear to be a learning experience on any level. (Note: Day may have been a workload management strategy.)
• Forward stoppages have dried up as a scoring source.
• The VFL draw didn’t do us any favours as Amon looked short of a run, so it may have been handy to ease him back in, but it wasn’t possible this week and the end of the season is fast approaching.
Chol (2/7/0) Watson (6/20/2) Butler (4/13/1) Moore (1/3/0)
(Ginnivan: 1 centre clearance)
30 CBAs/16 clearances (Opposition:12 Neutral:2)
By quarter: 4/0; 5/4; 3/4; 4/4
Even with a managed 4th quarter, given the low CBA count in the 1st, Newcombe led the CBAs. Winning the centre clearances didn't result in scoreboard pressure and forwards weren't able to create territory pressure to allow repeat opportunities and defensive structure to be set up. The rucks combined to for 25% of centre clearances, which was probably reflected in the quality of the clearances and the midfielders didn't connect with their entries either - Mackenzie had 4 CCs. 4th quarter was experimentation with Day out of the rotation and Butler going in late. Watson was 1/1 on his "flying" clearances - cost us a goal early as he was the defensive sweeper. Ward was out of the rotation in 3rd quarter yet played 68% TOG & 2nd highest disposals for the quarter. Meek & Reeves went 59/41 TOG%. Chol's cameo may have had more to do with his lack of opportunities as a forward. Both teams effectively ran 6 mids through the CBAs.
Working out how to ensure that the forward line can converts its chances as the Pies were the first to unpick the “disconnected forward” with their mids pushing back deep, leaving Elliott with room inside their F5O for slingshot opportunities. The other more significant aspect of this issue is for those with ball in hand making good decisions going inside F50.
Hey Mick, of the other 6 teams in the Top 7 (I have to throw the Cats into the mix) which team/s do you think we can actually beat in the finals given our up & down efforts all year?
Park the answer until after the Collingwood game if you think the Lions game was an aberration but I would be grateful for your thoughts given your critical thinking & fact base assessments of all games.
It might also make a great HI pod/read. Cheers Michelle
As we all know the final series is season in itself with the "anomalies' being that:
1. Not all teams play each other;
2. You only have to be the better team on the day; and
3. Generally, you only have to beat them once. (Lions/Cats last year exception to this.)
In making a comparison, I'll start with the relative strengths of our team. I have formed the view that our strongest lines are as follows:
1. Defence
2. Midfield
3. Forward
Looking at the potential opponents; how do we match up.
Fremantle
Defence - good match up for us with their talls suiting our tall defenders
Midfield - concerns here are Jackson & Bolton being able to swing momentum, particularly playing them in Perth.
Forwards - 2nd half against them showed that they could adapt to the Gunston set up. Watson would be the wildcard for us.
(Ground/crowd is a significant concern.)
Swans
Defence - fine again their talls are well matched to our defence.
Midfield - outside run could be an issue, however if we win contested ball inside we can establish territory.
Forward - Our forwards are a good match up to Swans defence as they lack tall defenders & have a couple of defenders who aren't strong 1 on 1 defenders.
Lions
Defence - worst match up for us as their forwards are agile and strong in the air.
Midfield - Competitive
Forward - Ability to spread their defence is an issue for us with their experience to recognise the most dangerous target to drop off their own opponent
Crows
Defence - Good match up for us. Talls are matched up well and they play high half forwards, so a strategy we understand.
Midfield - Particularly if Nash plays a good match up for our mids. Tall wingers could be an issue.
Forward - Their defenders can be spread allowing for 1 on 1 contests which can work to our favour
Demons
Defence - Similar to Lions agility could be a concern, but not as experienced so could be controlled, provided midfield pressure is evident.
Midfield - Gawn!! Leg speed and tall wingers have caused concerns this season
Forward - Provided midfield can give clean service, this is a good match up for us as the 2nd half in Tassie showed.
Cats
Defence - Good match up
Midfield - Speed on the outside could be an issue, plus Dempsey drifting forward as a tall winger may be an issue.
Forward - The concern here is playing our high half forwards allows Stewart to be free, so it would be a matter of the forwards being able to get back in front of the transition to either engage him or go around him.
Doing some crystal balling:
Finishing 3rd and playing Swans in Sydney will probably be the best chance for a home PF. Losing this game then means going to either Perth or Brisbane for a PF.
Finishing 4th playing Freo in QF, losing will also have us looking to go to Brisbane for PF as I think the Lions would beat Swans in a QF.
That's awesome Mick. Granted that doing the ladder predictor is fraught with danger, if we assume that we win our two games (neither is a gimme though), Brisbane (Gold Coast and Collingwood), Geelong (North and Richmond), Melbourne (Port and Bulldogs) Sydney (Essendon and North) win their remaining 2 games and Adelaide wins 1 of their 2 (Freo in Perth and GWS), we play Sydney in week one. If we lose that first final, it will then likely see us play Geelong in a semi-final, whereas if we were to beat Sydney in week one it would set up a prelim final, likely against Brisbane.
The concern is that our record against the current top 6 sides is not great (2-4) - convincing losses to Melbourne twice, Brisbane and a competitive loss to Freo, with narrow wins against Sydney (15 points) and Adelaide (9 points).
It's late in the season to be tweaking but it seems that without some sort of adjustment to personnel and method, we will struggle against the best sides.
Method - we almost always kick to D’Ambrosio’s wing when kicking out from deep defence and rarely play down the middle. I wasn’t aware the forward line was set around Gunston (Plan A) until almost everyone has been discussing it since the thrashing. It is feeling more and more like a straight sets exit unless we can defeat Sydney. Gotta beat Collingwood first, lose that and no point worrying about the finals scenarios. 🤷🏼♀️
Do you watch Agenda Setters? Roo picked apart Weddle’s game highlighting several examples of lack of effort and positioning.
Agree Michelle - let's take it a week at the time.
I happened to see N. Riewoldt's comment on Weddle being an athlete rather a footballer which was a very simplistic comment. Weddle isn't like Blicavs who came from an alternative athletic pathway. True Weddle didn't have a great game and lost concentration/focus both in ball handling and manning up at times, but he wasn't on his own.
To be perfectly honest Michelle, I've avoided some of the footy shows so far this week with the exception of AFL 360 and On the Couch which was hard enough to watch both the vision and listen to the "deserved commentary" about the team's efforts by Jordan Lewis and how disappointed he was. But having said that, if both you and Mick have watched Roo's take on Weddle, I will definitely go take a look at it seeing you've both commented about it.
Michelle, we are so lucky to have Mick who ALWAYS responds to our questions with such detail and very informative statistics. I for one, am very grateful and appreciative of his work.
On point 1. I just said the same thing below, in a slightly different way. Spot on Mick, it stood out to me more than any other aspect of our performance.
I think the main reason we lost was pressure. We applied nowhere near enough on the Lions, yet crumbled under theirs. We were hunted all night, and the Lions hunted the ball all night. We played bruise free footy. I couldn’t name a single player that I saw wanting to get involved in a contest to try and out muscle a Lion. Are we already thinking about finals and don’t want to get injured this close? It was painful to watch.
Speaking of painful to watch… matchups. Watching Andrews do as he pleased in our forward half made me realise how awful it must have been for other teams supporters to watch Sicily do the same when he did. Doesn’t happen as much these days, mind you.
At the other end, watching Barrass on Logan was diabolical and led to Toms worst game for us. Surely that was a job for Battle or even Weddle. Barrass just looked lost as he couldn’t keep up and go with him. Should have been on Hipwood from the start. Was a rare coaching error from Sam I think.
I’m hopeful that was the loss we needed to have, as they say (though I thought that of the Dees game in Tas). We know we can apply pressure better than that. Turn the heat up on the Pies and burn the damn pastry.
As always Gunston was given all the blocks and leading space our forwards could allow him. Lots of forward resource goes into this process. He kicked 3 which was serviceable. He also got seriously rag dolled many times and looked very slow with his footwork under duress . He was moved off the ball like he was every bit of 34 yo. It will be well noted by other clubs, so some less predictable forward structure may well be in order.
My comment 13h ago was in 2 parts but the first disappeared!
My concerns about the Hawks have been brewing for some time.Ive seen Freo beat us in Perth 3 times in 3 years.I saw Melb beat us well for 3 qters last year until Gunner won it for us in the last quarter.Melb have beaten us well twice in 26,we drew v a depleted Pies,1-11 second half v Dogs and hard to forget our first game loss v GWS.
Our ladder position smoke screens a no of issues at the Hawks.
It’s hard to know what to make of a game like that when so many players have their worst game for a very long time and for some, their career – most notably Watson, Day, Chol, Barass, Conor Mac and Amon. Coupled with a diabolical error rate, it meant that we were never going to be able to compete and that our defence was going to be under enormous pressure. However, that is two games where we have been absolutely dominated by a top six team and indicates that our team and game style is perhaps not at the level required to beat the better teams.
When you lose by 11 goals, which was actually a flattering margin, you can’t really look back at a few missed shots as important, but in the first quarter, there were 3 very good opportunities that would have allowed us to stay very much in the contest, show that we’d weathered that initial onslaught without any scoreboard damage and put a small amount of scoreboard pressure on Brisbane. However, MacDonald did not score, and Butler and Morrison missed shots that just should have been kicked. We shouldn’t have been surprised though, as this has been a pattern all season.
Perhaps it’s just the eye and may not be borne out by the data but the last two weeks have seen a very high error rate. Even the first quarter in the recent game against Essendon was characterised by overuse and execution errors. Right now, this is the biggest watch on our game and these past two weeks has looked a little like the early rounds of 2024, where we repeatedly made basic execution errors.
Why do we so rarely try and take something away from the opposition? It is a feature of Geelong’s approach and both Sydney and Brisbane endeavour to deny the opposition one of their key strengths. To allow Andrews to play without any accountability was hard to understand and with Butler in the team, he shaped as an ideal match up for Zorko – similar to the role played by McKenna on Impey. This week let’s see Butler play on Josh Daicos and Bailey MacDonald play on McCreery or Schulz.
Against a midfield with the depth of talent that Brisbane has, our midfield looked thin. Each of Newcombe, Ward and MacKenzie were ok, but with Day having an off night, and Morrison barely getting the ball, we were swamped and the sheer volume that Brisbane’s midfield accumulated did show our midfield as being thin. For those advocating the recruitment of Merrett, this was an example of why that is so.
The non-Massimo wing is a problem. Morrison’s past fortnight has been poor, averaging 12 possessions and having had a total of just 9 kicks. Harry is mid-sized, lacks leg speed, has average skills and isn’t versatile. Just who plays on that wing is a piece of the puzzle that remains unsolved. Does Bailey Mac come in and play a lock down role on the opposition’s dangerous small forward (similar to Tholstrup of Melbourne) which releases Amon to a wing and allows Hardwick to play a more creative role? Do we go back to McCabe as a tall winger with a real point of difference or Dalton with his endurance and neat left foot kicking? Persisting with Harry is not the answer.
There are other questions. Whilst we did well at clearances over the night, a question remains as to whether that 23rd position is best filled by Reeves? Is the disconnected forward role sustainable against good teams? Was a point of difference and had an element of surprise earlier in the season but is now something that opposition sides can plan for and are planning for. Even lowly Richmond was able to shut it down. What has happened to Josh Weddle? Just over 12 months ago, Geelong rated him as one of our most important players sending a stopper to him in the prelim final. His timing in going for marks is right off, his disposal by hand and foot is poor and his run from behind is not often seen. Unlocking him for the remainder of the season will be key to just how far we go. Why was Connor MacDonald, one of our very best midfielders when used in that role not given meaningful game time on ball? Why do we have games where the level of pressure we apply is very low and at times looks to be non-existent?
Last season, in round 20, Gold Coast defeated Brisbane by 66 points. They met in the second week of the finals and Brisbane turned the tables with a 50+ point victory. We live in hope!
Stuart, another of your finest summaries that always gives the HI Community a very good read and "food for thought" so I thank you very much. To quote Liam from the Hawks Soaring to New Heights podcast with Tim he said, "it's nice to sit down with a friend and talk footy" and that's how I feel on this forum with the quality of both the HI Team and Community with their articles and comments! We can only hope that the boys can benefit from an eight-day break and do a complete 180 and come out firing on Saturday night because if they don't, they will face even more scrutiny than what they have copped this week after their horrible performance against the Lions. No pressure but, 90,000 members will be counting on a turnaround against the Pies ... GO HAWKS!!!
Thanks Tammy. I love to read the thoughts of others who post and it's awesome to share our passion for the Hawks with the HI Community. I spend so much time thinking about the Hawks, to be able to release it to the HI forum is quite therapeutic! It's a stressful two weeks ahead, fingers crossed the boys can do the job and lock away 3rd spot!
What was learnt?
1. There is no Plan C for the forward 50 – With Plan A based around Gunston and Plan B working around Lewis/Chol, this game highlighted that there is no Plan C for the forward line structure. With Plan A and in part the midfield structure, playing high half forwards means that there is an alternative avenue inside forward 50 with those three plus Watson. The other aspect of the A & B plans is that the capacity to place defensive pressure inside fprward 50 creating repeat entries or to hold the ball inside the scoring zone is an imperative. At ¾ time, the inside 50 count was equal this is to ignore that ours resembled what we see more often at Box Hill, but there is still an onus on the forwards to compete to keep the ball inside our F50 arc.
2. When the defence lost their anchor, the flotilla was washed away on the tide – Unfortunately with Barrass playing his poorest game for the brown and gold, this then meant that the other defenders were thrown out of whack by the fact that he wasn’t able to lockdown at least one of the Lions forwards. To be fair, the agility of the Lions’ medium talls are the worst match up for our defenders, Barrass, Battle and Sicily are not good lateral movers with Amon undersized. Interestingly, in the first quarter, when we were under the pump early, when Weddle came off the bench, he looked to provide a better match up and running option in the early part of the game.
3. The leg rope was too elastic one way and too tight the other way – When looking at 45-degree option, the Lions were able to hit their targets as we provided too much distance between the two players being covered whereas we failed to see the Lions play with a tighter leg rope and knock off our kicks/handballs, leaving us vulnerable on turnover. They seemed to throw out the bait and we fell for it too often.
4. Midfield won the clearance contest, but the speed on the outside was shown up – There is no doubt that the inside mids are competitive across the league, however our capacity to spread from contest with leg speed remains an issue. This weakness is exacerbated by turning over the ball in vulnerable positions, particularly through the midfield as players are caught offside looking to create. This is the area of the game plan that Day has a direct impact on as he quick from the midfield contests.
5. The oppo analysis would have noted the lack of pressure exerted by the Lions last week & wouldn’t expect a repeat performance – As was noted last week, the Lions finished without a fit player on the bench in the last quarter and looked to put the cue in the rack, so they would’ve been focused on establishing a pressure game as premiers. In the first 10 minutes of the game, we were going higher than 1:1 kick to handball ratio which was just inviting trouble to come our way. (1st qrt 15:08 mins to go 10 kicks to 27 handballs for 2 inside 50s to 6).
Observations:
• Mackenzie and D’Ambrosio were the only midfielders to have more kicks than handballs
• When Hardwick spoiled Impey in a marking contest late in 2nd quarter allowing Lohmann to walk into goal, you knew things were out of whack!
• Unusual for us to allow a set play kick out to be as successful as the Lions were able to instigate.
• Credit to D’Ambrosio for selling the candy for his goal – not sure what the Lions’ oppo analyst was doing. He did something similar late in the game in general play.
• Ginnivan worked as hard as anyone in the team, but his ability to finish off his work was poor which has become a bit of a trend in the past month.
• The magnet moves for the last quarter were a little puzzling with Lewis on a wing, then Day and Weddle forward – these just didn’t appear to be a learning experience on any level. (Note: Day may have been a workload management strategy.)
• Forward stoppages have dried up as a scoring source.
• The VFL draw didn’t do us any favours as Amon looked short of a run, so it may have been handy to ease him back in, but it wasn’t possible this week and the end of the season is fast approaching.
• 0 disposals quarters – 2nd Chol, Reeves; 4th Barrass
• Tackle count by quarter – 12/10; 14/14; 5/15; 18/11 (49/50).
• I50 count/score by quarter 14/13 (1.3/2.3); 17/15 (3.1/6.5); 11/14 (2.4/5.4); 8/13 (2.2/5.5) (65/50)
• Disposal count: 100/88; 81/98; 85/94; 83/112 (349/394). K/H by qrt: 51/49; 42/39; 55/30; 52/41
• TOG % Bottom 5 (plus rucks): Reeves 49%; Meek 51%; Day 72%; Mackenzie 72%; Lewis 73%; Amon 75%; Butler 75%; D’Ambrosio 75%; Ward 71% (Battle 97% highest.)
• Kicking efficiency (DE): Barrass 100%/2 (100); Sicily 90%/10 (83); Impey 88%/8 (78); Weddle 86%/7 (70); Hardwick 85%/13 (90)
Butler 30%/10 (43); Newcombe 33%/9 (68); Watson 34%/3 (78); Morrison 40%/5 (75); Moore 44%/9 (68).
Starting 4: (CBA/% total CBA/CC)
1st Qrt.: Meek (17/57/3) Newcombe (22/73/1) Ward (16/53/2) Day (12/40/1)
2nd Qrt: Meek Newcombe Ward Mackenzie (20/67/4)
3rd Qrt: Meek Newcombe Day Mackenzie
4th Qrt: Reeves (11/37/1) Newcombe Mackenzie Macdonald (9/30/0)
Chol (2/7/0) Watson (6/20/2) Butler (4/13/1) Moore (1/3/0)
(Ginnivan: 1 centre clearance)
30 CBAs/16 clearances (Opposition:12 Neutral:2)
By quarter: 4/0; 5/4; 3/4; 4/4
Even with a managed 4th quarter, given the low CBA count in the 1st, Newcombe led the CBAs. Winning the centre clearances didn't result in scoreboard pressure and forwards weren't able to create territory pressure to allow repeat opportunities and defensive structure to be set up. The rucks combined to for 25% of centre clearances, which was probably reflected in the quality of the clearances and the midfielders didn't connect with their entries either - Mackenzie had 4 CCs. 4th quarter was experimentation with Day out of the rotation and Butler going in late. Watson was 1/1 on his "flying" clearances - cost us a goal early as he was the defensive sweeper. Ward was out of the rotation in 3rd quarter yet played 68% TOG & 2nd highest disposals for the quarter. Meek & Reeves went 59/41 TOG%. Chol's cameo may have had more to do with his lack of opportunities as a forward. Both teams effectively ran 6 mids through the CBAs.
Watch for the season
Gunston 3 goals – 1 lead; 1 free; 1 contested mark
Issue for the week:
Working out how to ensure that the forward line can converts its chances as the Pies were the first to unpick the “disconnected forward” with their mids pushing back deep, leaving Elliott with room inside their F5O for slingshot opportunities. The other more significant aspect of this issue is for those with ball in hand making good decisions going inside F50.
Hey Mick, of the other 6 teams in the Top 7 (I have to throw the Cats into the mix) which team/s do you think we can actually beat in the finals given our up & down efforts all year?
Park the answer until after the Collingwood game if you think the Lions game was an aberration but I would be grateful for your thoughts given your critical thinking & fact base assessments of all games.
It might also make a great HI pod/read. Cheers Michelle
Hi Michelle
As we all know the final series is season in itself with the "anomalies' being that:
1. Not all teams play each other;
2. You only have to be the better team on the day; and
3. Generally, you only have to beat them once. (Lions/Cats last year exception to this.)
In making a comparison, I'll start with the relative strengths of our team. I have formed the view that our strongest lines are as follows:
1. Defence
2. Midfield
3. Forward
Looking at the potential opponents; how do we match up.
Fremantle
Defence - good match up for us with their talls suiting our tall defenders
Midfield - concerns here are Jackson & Bolton being able to swing momentum, particularly playing them in Perth.
Forwards - 2nd half against them showed that they could adapt to the Gunston set up. Watson would be the wildcard for us.
(Ground/crowd is a significant concern.)
Swans
Defence - fine again their talls are well matched to our defence.
Midfield - outside run could be an issue, however if we win contested ball inside we can establish territory.
Forward - Our forwards are a good match up to Swans defence as they lack tall defenders & have a couple of defenders who aren't strong 1 on 1 defenders.
Lions
Defence - worst match up for us as their forwards are agile and strong in the air.
Midfield - Competitive
Forward - Ability to spread their defence is an issue for us with their experience to recognise the most dangerous target to drop off their own opponent
Crows
Defence - Good match up for us. Talls are matched up well and they play high half forwards, so a strategy we understand.
Midfield - Particularly if Nash plays a good match up for our mids. Tall wingers could be an issue.
Forward - Their defenders can be spread allowing for 1 on 1 contests which can work to our favour
Demons
Defence - Similar to Lions agility could be a concern, but not as experienced so could be controlled, provided midfield pressure is evident.
Midfield - Gawn!! Leg speed and tall wingers have caused concerns this season
Forward - Provided midfield can give clean service, this is a good match up for us as the 2nd half in Tassie showed.
Cats
Defence - Good match up
Midfield - Speed on the outside could be an issue, plus Dempsey drifting forward as a tall winger may be an issue.
Forward - The concern here is playing our high half forwards allows Stewart to be free, so it would be a matter of the forwards being able to get back in front of the transition to either engage him or go around him.
Doing some crystal balling:
Finishing 3rd and playing Swans in Sydney will probably be the best chance for a home PF. Losing this game then means going to either Perth or Brisbane for a PF.
Finishing 4th playing Freo in QF, losing will also have us looking to go to Brisbane for PF as I think the Lions would beat Swans in a QF.
That's awesome Mick. Granted that doing the ladder predictor is fraught with danger, if we assume that we win our two games (neither is a gimme though), Brisbane (Gold Coast and Collingwood), Geelong (North and Richmond), Melbourne (Port and Bulldogs) Sydney (Essendon and North) win their remaining 2 games and Adelaide wins 1 of their 2 (Freo in Perth and GWS), we play Sydney in week one. If we lose that first final, it will then likely see us play Geelong in a semi-final, whereas if we were to beat Sydney in week one it would set up a prelim final, likely against Brisbane.
The concern is that our record against the current top 6 sides is not great (2-4) - convincing losses to Melbourne twice, Brisbane and a competitive loss to Freo, with narrow wins against Sydney (15 points) and Adelaide (9 points).
It's late in the season to be tweaking but it seems that without some sort of adjustment to personnel and method, we will struggle against the best sides.
Method - we almost always kick to D’Ambrosio’s wing when kicking out from deep defence and rarely play down the middle. I wasn’t aware the forward line was set around Gunston (Plan A) until almost everyone has been discussing it since the thrashing. It is feeling more and more like a straight sets exit unless we can defeat Sydney. Gotta beat Collingwood first, lose that and no point worrying about the finals scenarios. 🤷🏼♀️
Do you watch Agenda Setters? Roo picked apart Weddle’s game highlighting several examples of lack of effort and positioning.
Agree Michelle - let's take it a week at the time.
I happened to see N. Riewoldt's comment on Weddle being an athlete rather a footballer which was a very simplistic comment. Weddle isn't like Blicavs who came from an alternative athletic pathway. True Weddle didn't have a great game and lost concentration/focus both in ball handling and manning up at times, but he wasn't on his own.
To be perfectly honest Michelle, I've avoided some of the footy shows so far this week with the exception of AFL 360 and On the Couch which was hard enough to watch both the vision and listen to the "deserved commentary" about the team's efforts by Jordan Lewis and how disappointed he was. But having said that, if both you and Mick have watched Roo's take on Weddle, I will definitely go take a look at it seeing you've both commented about it.
Thanks for the effort you went to to respond to my question. I hope the other HI subscribers have the chance to read it. Have a great night!
Michelle, we are so lucky to have Mick who ALWAYS responds to our questions with such detail and very informative statistics. I for one, am very grateful and appreciative of his work.
SAME 😀
If a position becomes vacant on the Hawks match committee, there needs to be a push from HI to have Mick fill that spot.
I'll second that Stuart ... VOTE 1 FOR MICK!!!
On point 1. I just said the same thing below, in a slightly different way. Spot on Mick, it stood out to me more than any other aspect of our performance.
Two things for me.
I think the main reason we lost was pressure. We applied nowhere near enough on the Lions, yet crumbled under theirs. We were hunted all night, and the Lions hunted the ball all night. We played bruise free footy. I couldn’t name a single player that I saw wanting to get involved in a contest to try and out muscle a Lion. Are we already thinking about finals and don’t want to get injured this close? It was painful to watch.
Speaking of painful to watch… matchups. Watching Andrews do as he pleased in our forward half made me realise how awful it must have been for other teams supporters to watch Sicily do the same when he did. Doesn’t happen as much these days, mind you.
At the other end, watching Barrass on Logan was diabolical and led to Toms worst game for us. Surely that was a job for Battle or even Weddle. Barrass just looked lost as he couldn’t keep up and go with him. Should have been on Hipwood from the start. Was a rare coaching error from Sam I think.
I’m hopeful that was the loss we needed to have, as they say (though I thought that of the Dees game in Tas). We know we can apply pressure better than that. Turn the heat up on the Pies and burn the damn pastry.
…are still a work in progress.Go you Mighty Hawks 💛🤎
We are not performing as well as most expected this year.I have witnessed 3 defeats by Freo in Perth in the last 3 years.
I saw us beaten at the G for much of the Melb game last Year only saved by Gunner in the last.I saw the gut wrenching Prelim last year.
We have succumbed to Melb twice more this year,drawn v Pies and lost to The Bulldogs by kicking 1-11 in the second half.
Rob Mcartney said back in Feb we are still developing .We have had a ridiculous no of injuries to important players.
Im still hopeful but feel we
As always Gunston was given all the blocks and leading space our forwards could allow him. Lots of forward resource goes into this process. He kicked 3 which was serviceable. He also got seriously rag dolled many times and looked very slow with his footwork under duress . He was moved off the ball like he was every bit of 34 yo. It will be well noted by other clubs, so some less predictable forward structure may well be in order.
My comment 13h ago was in 2 parts but the first disappeared!
My concerns about the Hawks have been brewing for some time.Ive seen Freo beat us in Perth 3 times in 3 years.I saw Melb beat us well for 3 qters last year until Gunner won it for us in the last quarter.Melb have beaten us well twice in 26,we drew v a depleted Pies,1-11 second half v Dogs and hard to forget our first game loss v GWS.
Our ladder position smoke screens a no of issues at the Hawks.
5 week average rolling ladder
Rd. For Agst
5 107 88 121.04%
6 106 81 130.30%
7 99 77 128.50%
8 98 79 123.43%
9 94 79 119.54%
10 90 90 99.56%
11 87 86 100.93%
12 88 87 101.61%
13 84 84 100.24%
14 92 85 107.49%
16 95 78 121.85%
17 98 90 109.15%
18 95 84 112.62%
19 105 79 132.66%
20 109 67 161.13%
21 109 68 161.54%
22 103 68 152.07%