The Heat is On

The sense of anticipation for this season is palpable, but who will be feeling the pinch?

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Unfortunately, it is a sad fact of any sport that every squad, list, roster always requires renewal.

There will be players on our list that are acutely aware that their performances this year are of utmost importance to their footballing futures. By the same token – using a round-ball term – squads win titles, and we aren’t going to have our best 23 available every week.

In this piece, I take a look at who will be after a big 2025 – both for themselves, and for our wider success.

Josh Ward

No surprises here, he is the most interesting watch for me this year. It is obviously a concern that our Pick 7 midfielder heading into his fourth season is yet to nail a guaranteed best 23 spot. He had a very encouraging finals series – his game against the Bulldogs with 22 touches and nine tackles in particular was very good, and given the circumstances was his best performance at AFL level. He looked completely up with the pace of the game, which was a welcome surprise because there have been times where I believe the game has moved a bit fast for him.

However, I still don’t really know what elite attribute he possesses to be a top line inside mid. I don't think he works on the wing which was tried in 2024 - he has the tank but not the leg speed. He needs in my opinion to develop a point of difference, whether it’s being an elite handballer around stoppage or turning his left foot into one that can be a real weapon picking off a quick 45. In addition, it has been documented he is such a deep thinker – focusing on controlling the controllables and not being obsessed about minor details could really help his performance.

The pleasing thing is – he's put together a flawless pre-season so far. Peter Burge reported in his podcast with us that he hasn’t missed a drill yet. If we can get a bounce out of him – it will be an enormous win.

Changkuoath Jiath

When he burst onto the scene – namely his stunning performance on Easter Monday in 2021 - I thought we’d found our next 200 game defender.

However, as we all know it just hasn't all panned out for CJ the way we had hoped. Be it a mix of his body letting him down, poor form and circumstance – he was unable to get a spot back in our 23 for the finals last year despite being fit (he nicked a calf against GWS in Round 21 but played in Box Hill’s QF loss the week before Week 1 of the Finals).

Again, namely due to the development of the likes of Jack Scrimshaw and Josh Weddle, we find ourselves at a point where CJ isn’t a lock for Sydney in Opening Round. We know for a fact Sam Mitchell is such a big fan of what he brings to the table, however CJ simply needs a year without any soft tissue injuries in order to give himself the best chance to nail down a spot, and make it obvious where exactly on the ground that is. This is his eighth season on the list and he turns 26 in June. I’d love to see us play him on a wing in the pre-season, being a damaging metres gained player between the arcs could be his go.

Seamus Mitchell

Shammy is an interesting one, as we mentioned on the Space/Podcast last week, he was a bit of victim in circumstance – being out of form at the wrong time in 2024 was a bit of a sliding doors moment.

He played 10 games last year but was only seen once after Round 14 and averaged just 8.6 disposals a game. This was in stark contrast to his outstanding 2023 where he played 14 games – all after round five – and averaged nearly 17 touches a game, including five games with over 20 touched. He seriously impressed me with his hardness at the contest and his absolutely lightning pace. It just didn't quite happen for him last year. As has been mentioned, his disposal at times has potentially been the knock on him not getting back in. We play a style that is so quick and manic off half back it requires precise ball use in order to avoid being heavily scored against on turnover.

Given our embarrassment of riches in defence now – it is hard to see where he fits back in at the moment. Potentially a Hardwick going forward could open up a spot for a small defender? I do expect to see him in the side at some point this year, but they will be critical games for him. He is out of contract at the end of 2025.

Ned Reeves

Whilst we were all delighted at the development of Lloyd ‘Lord’ Meek last year into our clear number one ruckman, it of course meant the man that was the number one seed for most of 2023 was relegated largely to the VFL. After 21 senior appearances in 2023 and being rewarded with a three-year extension tying him to the club to 2026, Reeves played just four in 2024. The last of these two being in Rounds 13 and 14 whilst Meek was sidelined with a low-grade syndesmosis strain. He wasn’t seen at AFL level after the bye.

Of bigger concern to Reeves should be the emergence of Max Ramsden. By all reports, including that of Peter Burge, he is hashtag training the house down and is significantly firming as a bolter forward/ruck in several prospective Opening Round sides. As we know, the massive knock on Ned is that whilst his tap work is at times excellent, he is quite one-dimensional once the ball leaves the area. If we look at Reeves’ 2023 and Meek’s 2024 (both played 21 games) - Meek averaged 6.5 more disposals a game, took 50 marks to 33, and kicked eight goals to Reeves’ two. He simply has to be a more effective option around the ground, whether it's being able to get more of the footy and be an aerial presence, or show the ability to be an effective resting ruckman forward to have a chance to get back into this side consistently.

Sam Butler

Obviously, Sam Butler’s 2024 was derailed by his horrific broken leg suffered in the VFL against Sydney, so he is a little stiff to find himself here.

However – he is out of contract at the end of 2025 and unfortunately when he has had his chances at AFL level (despite showing at times excellent VFL form) he hasn’t delivered. For someone that we drafted at Pick 23, Sam is coming into his fourth season with a return of 19 games and 15 goals. His two appearances at AFL level last year delivered a combined 10 disposals and no score.

I genuinely believe he has talent, was quite excited when we drafted him off the back of his Under 18 campaign where he rocketed up the draft board as a small forward with blistering pace and an ability to put strong defensive pressure on. It would be a great story to see his form force the club to reward him with another contract through his form. Unfortunately for Sam, our small forward stocks are extremely strong, and has only been added to since he arrived at the club with the acquisitions of Jack Ginnivan and Nick Watson. Hopefully he gets another chance at AFL level this year, and if he does he must take it.

Henry Hustwaite

It pains me to put him here, because I am a fan, and he has shown some good signs at AFL level – notably his debut against Melbourne in the penultimate round of 2023 where he kicked 2 goals to go with his 15 touches, and in the disaster on the Gold Coast last year where he has 12 second half disposals after coming on as a half time substitute. He was one of the only positives that night, being one of the only mids to recognise what the yellow thing with ‘Sherrin’ on it was. He is contracted until 2026 after signing a pre-season extension last year, and I don't think he’s under any danger of not being on our list next year.

However, it is somewhat of a surprise that after a very strong pre-season he only managed four games at AFL level, three of which were as the sub. Given his height – 195cm – he has the potential to be a real asset moving forward and his form in the back half of the VFL season was strong – with an average of 25.5 disposals in his last 9 games. He at the moment is a bit of victim of circumstance, the midfield performed so strongly in the back half of last year there was simply no way in. He is being tried in a variety of roles over the preseason and he will be an interesting watch in our two practice matches. He no-doubt has ability, but would like a 2025 where he is seen more times at AFL level than he was in 2024.

Mabior Chol

You may look at this and think this is harsh, and you’d be right. Mabs for 80% of last year was an absolutely excellent addition, and a significant upgrade on Jacob Koschitzke. He kicked 37.21 and is obviously a lock in our Opening Round side. He is in the second year of a four year contract so he has job security, and there is absolutely no chance of him not being on our list in 2026.

However, there are two things I want to mention. His finals series, putting it mildly, was well below-par. He didn’t take an inside 50 mark in two finals, had a combined 13 disposals across the two games and his only goal was against Port after a very questionable sling tackle free kick. At the end of the year, we have two first round draft picks (Carlton’s 2025 and our own 2026) that are extremely shoppable and I believe we will be in the market for a key forward. Mitch Lewis when fit (big if) is ahead in the pecking order and Calsher Dear is a 15 year player.

He has a big burden to carry whilst Dear is sidelined for the first six-to-10 games of the new campaign. Mabs would want a 2025 that is level to 2024’s output, and to stand up if we do reach September again, to ensure his spot in our best 23 is absolutely safe come 2026.

Stay tuned to HI as we ramp up towards the start of the AFL Men’s season.

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