Selection Dissection: Marching in (to the finals)
After accounting for the Kangas, the Hawks head to Marvel on a mission to solidify their spot in the
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Round 17 — Hawthorn vs St Kilda
Saturday, July — 7:30pm @ Marvel Stadium
What a great win against North Melbourne to kick start our run home to the finals. With a third of the season (eight games) remaining will still need at least four more wins and another percentage boost to lock in a Top 8 spot.
Keeping in mind how tough our run home is, this week’s clash St Kilda is simply a must win.
Unfortunately, we got the terrible injury news on Tuesday that Josh Weddle will be sidelined indefinitely with bone stress in his back. The good news is the club caught it early (before it became a stress fracture) and there is some hope he will return later in the season.
Our depth down back is incredibly strong, most notably with the captain James Sicily set to return this week. After missing the past four weeks with the worlds worst corky, James Worpel also looks likely to return and will be a big inclusion.
🛡️ Defence:
The skipper James Sicily will replace Weddle this week.
Jack Scrimshaw will likely be available following a hamstring injury he sustained in the VFL two weeks ago but I would not bring him back. St Kilda do not have a big forward line, so bringing in two talls will be a poor decision.
Changkuoth Jiath has the speed that we will lose with Weddle going out and should remain in the 22. Seamus Mitchell can stay as the sub, like he was last week.
⚙️ Midfield:
Jai Newcombe will cop a hard tag this week from Marcus Windhager. Conor Nash, who has been excellent the past few matches will need to play a big role. His physicality will be crucial. James Worpel looks set to return.
Unfortunately, Sam Butler will miss the next 1-2 weeks with leg soreness. Cam Mackenize and Josh Ward should both have strong games against a St Kilda midfield that lacks depth.
Hopefully we also see Nick Watson have a few more centre bounce opportunities like he did last week. How good was his goal!
🤾♂️ Ruck:
Lloyd Meek held his own last week against arguably the best ruck in the AFL, Tristan Xerri. It’s another big test this week against Rowan Marshall, who has been in strong form.
Marshall likes to push forward and is a hard runner, so Meek is in for a long night. Max Ramsden’s ruck relief may prove important again.
⚡ Forwards:
Take a bow Uncle Jack and the Chols Royce. Twelve goals between them against the Roos, with Gunston kicking a career high seven goals. It was also good to see Nick Watson hitting the scoreboard with 3 goals after a quiet few weeks. I also like Max Ramsden’s game, who kicked 3 and presented well all game.
It will be Chol's 100th AFL game this week and what better way to celebrate than another bag and a dub.
It was great to see Calsher Dear (12 marks, seven of which were contested, and 2.2) play well for Box Hill, but unfortunately there is currently no spot for him in the 23.
Mitch Lewis will play a full game in the VFL this week and if he gets through will be considered for selection next week against the Dockers in Perth.
🤦 Ben Ronke of the Week
Isaac Keeler to kick three.
🔮 Selection Predictions 🔮
What should happen:
In: Worpel, Sicily
Out: Butler (inj.), Weddle (inj.)
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Worpel, H.Morrison
HF: D.Moore, J.Gunston, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Ramsden, M.Chol, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash
I/C: C.Macdonald, C. Jiath, J.Ward, C.Mackenzie, S.Mitchell (SUB)
Emg: F.Maginness, J.Scrimshaw, C.Dear
What will happen:
In: Worpel, Sicily
Out: Butler (inj.), Weddle (inj.)
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Worpel, H.Morrison
HF: D.Moore, J.Gunston, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Ramsden, M.Chol, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash
I/C: C.Macdonald, C. Jiath, J.Ward, C.Mackenzie, S.Mitchell (SUB)
Emg: F.Maginness, J.Scrimshaw, C.Dear
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Well done Brad, you remembered to include Calsher’s 7 contested marks in his stats, which is an incredible effort by him, considering that a standout VFL forward (2018) led the state league with an average of 3.4 contested marks per game. This suggests that top-performing key forwards in the VFL typically average between 2.5 to 3.5 contested marks per game. Hopefully Calsh’ doesn’t play too many more games in the VFL to match these averages…🤞🏽
Average age: 25.39
Average games: 109.91