Out grinding Ross Lyon's Saints
Back-to-back victories: is this real life?
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ROUND 9: HAWTHORN 8.10 (58), BULLDOGS 7.11 (53)
📝 Main recap:
Two on the trot. Three out of the past four.
The heavy Sydney loss aside, this Hawthorn team are trending upwards, and those who held their nerve when the rebuild was being questioned are being rewarded with some early season form.
We’ve spoken a lot about how you measure progress in a season that’s still not really about results. But if you contrast the past two victories (by a collective margin of 12 points) to the close losses we had last year against Adelaide and GWS, this gives us a greater measure of how this team has progressed than points differentials against Essendon, Geelong and the Demons.
In the matches against Adelaide and GWS last year, the Hawks had clutched defeat from the jaws of victory. While wins against the Dogs and now the Saints show not just the dogged determination to hold onto a win, but to hold their nerve.
That’s not an accident.
From Jack Scrimshaw’s “red time” spray to pre-season match sim, these Hawks are now being taught how to keep their heads in clutch moments and grind out a victory — even if it does mean kicking 0 goals in a final quarter, locking it in at the source, making safe and predictable decisions, and repelling wave after wave of attack.
It’s why Sam Mitchell has been quoted (and criticised) for saying, “We’re past this”, in press conferences. This young team have shifted to a new stage of the rebuild, where they’re leaning how to win. Make no mistake — this is a game we would’ve lost last year. It wasn’t pretty, but it was gutsy and hard fought. And isn’t it nice for once to beat Ross Lyon at his own game?
🧐 Things we like to see — the most ridiculous kick out of all time?
Silk-Miller medalist Karl Amon’s eyes and body said left, but he bamboozled everyone with a cross body kick that hit Jarman Impey who made a brilliant run through the corridor. A set play that set in motion an incredible Luke Breust goal at a crucial moment in the third.
🧐 Things we like to see — Seamus with the bullet to Breust
And how good was Seamus Mitchell in that same passage of play? Sizing up his options before nailing Luke Breust in the pocket with pinpoint accuracy. It was a neat finish from Breust who just had to goal to finish off the exceptional work that started from the kick out. Hawksball in full effect.
🧐 Things we like to see — The Wiz with the late draw
Yes, he’s missed some sitters at key moments against the Dogs and Pies, but the thing we love about Nick Watson is his ability to shake it off and continually back himself. You just can’t teach that. Taking a mark just inside 50 on the boundary, the Wiz only had one thing on his mind — he fired up those little legs, took on the man on the mark and snuck it inside the post from 55, aided with a bit of help from the Tassie wind gods. A key first quarter moment that got us going.
🕵🏻♂️ 19 Observations from Ash
In the old days of Name a Game, I’m not sure that’s a game that would be in high demand and I’m not even sure it will make for great viewing come the summer when you’re hankering for a footy fix, but if you’re Hawthorn, that was three hours well spent.
Questions were asked of Sam Mitchell a fortnight ago after the Swans game, but he has coached superbly the last fortnight. Tactically, the Hawks got it right against the Dogs and again against the Saints, a game that really, they had no business winning with the side they put out there.
One stat illustrates both his coaching and the team’s improvement. Last year, Hawthorn was beaten by an average margin of 48.5 points in the four games James Sicily missed. This year, they are 1-0 without the skipper.
When was the last Hawthorn win without two first-choice key forwards and two best-23 key defenders?
And remember the collapse against Richmond last year? That seems an eternity ago. The Hawks held their nerve and made great decision after great decision to hold out the Dogs. And again they played the tight moments brilliantly against the Saints. The scenario training is starting to pay dividends and there is now a degree of confidence about the Hawks in tight finishes.
How great is it to have a competitive beast back in the ruck? Ben McEvoy was that until his last couple of seasons and we got some elite ruck work (but not a whole lot else) from Ned Reeves. But Lloyd Meek scraps, fights and presents. Rowan Marshall has had his way with the Hawks in recent years and was excellent for St Kilda once again, but Meek might have been the second best player on the ground. He is now the club’s No.1 ruckman and by a considerable margin.
The Blue Ribbon Cup game always means plenty to Jack Scrimshaw and he played like. Save for the brain fart against the Swans (which in the end actually made no difference to the outcome) he has been in ripping touch. It has been a slow burn for Scrimshaw, but well done to him.
Scrimshaw and his coach back when he was a Hawthorn nuff Jai Newcombe loves Tassie and against the Saints, he added to his portfolio of excellent work at UTAS Stadium. No coincidence that his return to form came when Will Day returned to the side. Day is still finding his feet and has yet to play a game close to his lofty 2023 standards, but the midfield is so better balanced when he plays. Day also ran the game out much better this week.
Conor Nash has had a nice fortnight as well.
Blake Hardwick was magnificent at both ends of the ground. Shame he was denied what may have been a goal when Calsher Dear inexplicably spoiled a certain mark in the third term. Without his leadership and organisation, the Hawks might not have held on. I suspect his brief from the coach against the Saints on Saturday was to go and influence the game where he felt he was needed, and that he did.
Dear was always going to struggle second time around, but he still impacted the game. Not sure he plays next week if one of Mabior Chol or Mitch Lewis is available, but that’s OK. He is miles ahead of where we thought he would be.
This was easily Nick Watson’s best game at AFL level and the defensive efforts and one percenters the scouts raved about in his draft year were on display in full measure. But he still has that ability to somehow conjure a behind when a goal is there for the taking.
Wonderful captain’s game from Dylan Moore. Battered and bloodied like Leigh Matthews was against Carlton in 1982 (one of my all-time favourite Hawthorn wins). It’s going to be shitty when the Devils make him their inaugural captain in 2028.
As for Jack Ginnivan’s miss? Disgraceful.
Gini noooooooooooooooo 😱 Beating St Kilda is a return to a normal state of affairs. And it is especially sweet to do so in Tassie, given how the Saints handed the state — and that home ground advantage and all those future members and sponsorship dollars — to the Hawks in 2007 when Grant Thomas declared that playing in Tassie was beneath the club. Yet another gift from St Kilda to Hawthorn.
It was interesting to watch Josh Battle, as in the uncontracted Josh Battle in action for the Saints. He’s a handy player and, yes, a Hawks supporter as a kid. The jungle drums are beating.
Anyone updating their projected win-loss tally for the Hawks? With Richmond (twice), West Coast and North still to come, seven wins should be achievable. Brisbane in a fortnight at Marvel is also very winnable, as is Adelaide at the MCG the week after that, especially with the likes of Sicily, Chol, Lewis, Changkouth Jiath and Chad Wingard all chances to be recalled over the next month.
Early PSA: The first Richmond game (round 14) shapes to be Dustin Martin’s 300th game.
And congratulations to Luke Breust. He’ll be bringing with him something not seen very often at the football club in the next few weeks – baby Freya. If you want an indication of how young the Hawks actually are, he is only father on the playing list.
⭐️ Best on ground — Jai Newcombe
So many to choose from… Amon, Meek, Dimma and Moore all leading candidates. But it is hard to go past the incredible game that our midfield dynamo had - putting his hand up consistently throughout the day when it mattered most. Finished the day with 31 touches at 83% disposal efficiency, seven tackles, four score involvements and eight clearances. No surprise that our return to form in the past month has correlated with that of Newc in the guts.
💫 Rising star — Nick Watson
A game that will really boost his confidence - especially when it comes to kicking for goal, the Wiz was again class against the Saints. Finished the day booting two majors including a fantastic goal backing himself on the run from 50 in the first quarter. Only had the 10 touches, but from that was part of seven score involvements, and his pressure and harassment off the ball was again on display. Going to be some sort of player.
👼 Unsung hero — Luke Breust
Perhaps we will see more of this sort of role for Punky through the last years of his career, but the experience and impact that Breust played coming on as the sub for the last term cannot be underplayed. Took a mark deep in the forward pocket and converted from a cracking Seamus Mitchell long pass, and had the ball five times in the final term. Been in the situation before and was an important part in leaving Launceston with another win on the board.
🤯 Under pressure — No one
Hard to think of a player that didn’t perform their role on the day that would justify changes being made at the selection table as we travel to Adelaide to take on Port. With Scrimma serving a weeks suspension, we will see James Sicily come straight back into the line up pending availability, so Jai Serong is likely to hold his spot for another week at least. What a wonderful position to be in…
👀 Box Hill watch — Changkouth Jiath
Twenty-two touches, nine marks, and five inside 50’s for Box Hill in his pathway back into our senior line-up. It was a welcome return to footy for CJ who lit up Wonthaggi Recreation Reserve on Sunday. Sat out the last term and will likely need another week or two to get fully match fit, but could not have asked for more and has quite a few tongues justifiably wagging.
The one negative? Box Hill have the bye next week. The timing is terrible.
🗣️ Quick Shout Out: The Tassie Crowd
Launceston has been our home away from home for a number of years now, and even though a Tassie team is on the horizon that’s a 2028 problem. For now at least, the Hawks enjoy a passionate following in the Apple Isle and a crowd of 15,112 is a blockbuster UTAS crowd.
😡 Brad’s early call
🧐 The burning question — Can we back it up (again)?
Yes it is going to be tough facing Port in Adelaide, but why can’t we win? Confidence and momentum is a wonderful thing and what we have clearly shown is that if everyone is working together we can definitely be up for a contest. However… it’s a pretty tough ask and we all remember the game there last year when we were 82 points down at half time. Whatever happens, we just want the boys to have a fair old crack.
🤯 Not something you see every day — the PM in the team song
Yes, we’ve seen him in a Swans scarf, a Pies scarf, a Cats scarf — but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reportedly supported the Hawks since the 1980s and we’ve seen him sing the team song before, so maybe this really was the fulfilment of a lifelong dream rather than a cheap PR stint?
Albo was there as a guest of Club President Andy Gowers. Jeff Kennett could not be reached for comment.
🪜 The ladder check-in is back!
Because why the hell not? Shocking percentage, but that win pushes us up to the dizzying heights of 15th, two points behind last year’s Grand Finalists the Lions, and just two-and-half wins out of the eight. One can dream, right?
🎤 Sammy said what!?
“It was a scrappy sort of game with a lot of pressure, a lot of intensity around the ball, a lot of repeat stoppages. I thought the players handled it pretty well.”
“We’re far from a finished product, but it was definite progress.”
“I think it’s really important as a young group to be able to manage momentum.”
“We lost a lot of close games last year, but we hadn’t spent the time on it … now, that we’ve had our group together for a little bit longer, we’ve done some more preparation, players know what to do.”
“It gives a bit of reward for effort, and there is some confidence that the work we’ve done is starting to show
🗣️ Final words — Karl Amon
“The last month of footy hasn’t been bad. Got some wins which has obviously given us some confidence. To back up last week, which was a pretty similar game, and for a really young group to go through that and come out on top twice — compare to last year — it’s really given us confidence.”
“When we’re predictable as team mates that goes a long way to playing some good football.”
“Got tense there in the last five minutes, but if we know where each other are going to be and play our predictable game plan it goes a long way in getting the win.”
“[Port] are the #1 pressure side, so it’s going to be a massive battle for us. If we can match it in that area, get it in our front half and lock it in — which they love doing as well — it’ll be a good battle for us … and test for the young group.”
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What was learnt:
1. Coaches are in good form. With a playing list that has been decimated forward and impacted back, the coaching crew were able to fashion a style of play that gave the team a chance to win. This is the most that can be asked of them. There have been “critics” of the line coaches & Sam since the start of the season, however, there hasn’t appeared to credit given when it has been earned. The coaches made sunshine out of a handful of hay.
2. Ugly wins build belief. After a game where we had a scoring efficiency of 67% and kicking 14 goals, to then win by kicking 8 goals for the game and only two after half time, should develop a level of experience to draw on in the coming weeks and years. The obvious factor here was kicking straight early, so we were able to create scoreboard pressure and not have to chase the game over the last three quarters.
3. The “two-minute drill” is a work in progress. In the NFL, teams talk of moving the ball to score in the last two minutes; for AFL teams it’s more often defending a lead in the last 2 minutes that has greater focus. Looking at the game from the time Amon had his shot at goal with just over two minutes to go – he took his shot from about 55m out meaning that he had to kick it 60+m. This means that the key area to “compete” is the effectively the length of the goal square. In this situation, it is easier to push back into the pack rather than try to rush forward. Looking at Amon’s kick, it was up to Meek & Gunston to provide the tall contest and either kill the contest or force a score if the kick was to fall short. Unfortunately, the Saints were able to take an uncontested mark. This then lead to a chain of possessions that the mids & defenders were able to break up as the Saints looked to attack from the furthest part of the ground for them. Ginnivan was able to mark closer to the wing than the F50 line and with an ability to kick 40-50m at best, the next contest going forward was about 30m out of goal. Again, it was up to Gunston & Meek to make a contest – Gunston made it to the drop zone, however Meek remained 10-20m behind the play; a distance that Ginnivan was never going to reach. This then allowed the Saints to swing the ball to the outer side looking to open the ground, however again, the mids/defenders forced them back to the broadcast wing and go down the line to a contesting marking contest that was killed. Then, it was a replica of last week with stoppage contests killing the clock. The fundamental issue being that if we could have killed the contest in our F50 from either of the two opportunities, the pressure may not have been as intense for the last 30 seconds.
4. Romance is for novels and debuts but then the harsh reality bites. When you look at the performance of Dear, you will see the need for his apprenticeship to be continued at Box Hill. Leaving aside the Hardwick contest for the moment, there were a couple of other incidents that highlight the work he has to develop in this game. In the first quarter, matched up on Bonner, who had spread to the flank for an outlet kick, Dear went to take the mark and overplayed the spot allowing Bonner to run on and then take the one-two to hit up King for his early goal. Dear was unable to go with him even at a distance. A similar incident occurred later in the game. Similarly, in the 3rd quarter when the Saints had momentum running with them, Dear had taken a nice mark about 40m out, but rather than going back to take the shot, he gave a handball to CMac on the fly who missed the shot. As much as I’m a CMac believer, he’s no Sicily, Amon or Scrimshaw with a long bomb, so Dear had to take the responsibility for the moment rather than trying to be a “team player”. The point of this discussion is whether it is better for Dear to learn his game at AFL or VFL level. If it was 2 years ago, I think he’d be carried as was Kosi, but for where the team is now, I think the apprenticeship has a "trade school" element to it rather than being an "on-the-job" situation.
5. Need to use momentum when we have it. There was no doubt that as good as we were in the first quarter using the early momentum, the same couldn’t be said of the second when we had 16 I50 for 2 goals. Fortunately, the Saints were equally as inefficient when they had the momentum in the 3rd quarter.
6. Hardwick is the go-to player replacing Burgoyne. One thing that has become apparent is that if Sam thinks we have hole to fill, Hardwick has become the modern version of Shaun Burgoyne. In the last quarter, when under pressure deep in the back line, Impey scrambled a bomb out which looked to be a marking opportunity for the Saints, only for Dimma to spoil the opportunity and kill it putting it over the boundary allowing us to reset. The capacity to swing forward and back within and between quarters is a skill set that few possess.
7. Goals don’t create confidence for Watson. Being able to pick off a handball interception to set up CMac’s goal in the opening quarter gave Watson the boost he needed. As is often said in most sports, it’s not your “one wood” that brings you into the game.
Observations:
• Having shots at goal from within the centre corridor and within 30m of the goals certainly assists with accuracy. Aside from the early goals to Meek & Watson that were long shots, the other goals came from within the corridor. The other aspect was that we were able get some crumbing goals which had been few and far between in the early rounds.
• No need to be “chirpy” when you haven’t sealed the deal. For a developing team, to fly the flag or get in the face of the opposition, it may be better to wait to ensure that you have completed your part of the deal. Watson after getting his 50m penalty, gives Wilke an All-Australian defender a tap on the bum and similarly, others get stuck into Marshall for his miskick to Ginnivan – neither Watson or Ginni made the Saints pay.
• Meek made further progression with his marking being this week’s next step. There will be “Meek moments” just as there will be “Frostball” e.g. taking the ball out of the ruck early in the 2nd quarter trying to score from a throw in – don’t confuse ambition with ability.
• The Amon/Impey/Mitchell/Breust progression was a set play that Amon had tried to make in the North game when he made the miskick to Sicily and was intercepted. This is a watch for the remainder of the season to see how often it is attempted and rate of success.
• CMac’s on the run banana – this was the third (or 4th) attempt for the season (Dees, Pies, Dogs) with the Dogs’ game being the only successful outcome. The need to develop his left foot is probably going to be watch as the strike rate isn’t in his favour for the moment and I’m not sure that it is the percentage play.
• D’Ambrosio had a very mixed day with his decision-making and execution ranging from lows to some defensive highs.
• The role of Nash since the return of Day has allowed him more opportunities to be assertive in the midfield contest. Again, his I50 pass from the centre square to Watson in the 3rd quarter was elite as Watson didn’t have to miss a step and goal easily. In fact, his ruck role may have lead to the early Saint sub of Hayes which I think strategically assisted us as it meant one less tall to cover.
• Weddle provided another attacking defensive role this week, although trying mark 4 deep in the pack late in the game, it may have been better to go the punch.
• Mackenzie looks to have adopted the defensive wing role that Morrison had been playing.
• On TV it was hard to tell, but the time put into Hill and Henry meant the Saints weren’t able to run and gun which was part of Lyon’s lament in his post-game presser.
Starting 4:
1st Qrt. Nash (11), Day (13), Newcombe (12)
(Moore went to CBA in the 1st qrt.)
2nd Qrt. Newcombe, Day, Worpel (14)
3rd Qrt. Nash, Newcombe, Worpel
4th Qrt. Nash, Day, Newcombe
(Meek 18, Moore 6, Dear 1)
Coach killer (albeit self-inflicted* this week):
Dear spoiling Hardwick would’ve had every coach looking at the replay to see if they had seen what had happened. Hardwick had shown the forward craft (or cheated) to be completely on his own. For Dear not to be aware of where his teammate was just demonstrated his “greenness”.
(* When you pick a second game player as your second key forward, you have to take the good with the bad – see above.)
Issue for the week:
Having shown the capacity to mix it with the middleweights over the past fortnight, coming into a (supposed) heavyweight contender this week, the onus will be to provide a four-quarter contest and not allow previous bad habits to return i.e. a run of goals.
Mick has provided a beautiful summary and hard not to agree with his points. It's so important to stay strong and to stick with this path we've chosen. There will be rough days but there will also be some nourishment, which the [past two seeks has provided our team and club. This win was doubly impressive to think we were without our two tall forwards and skipper. A few thoughts:
1. There are lots of positives from the past two weeks, but arguably, the biggest factor has been the reduction in catastrophic errors. If you reflect on our heaviest defeats, they have been characterised by a very high rate of bad errors - in the Sydney game we had two 2 goal turn arounds and gifted them the ball on so many occasions, and in the Geelong and Melbourne games we had a very high rate of unforced mistakes. It’s hard to pinpoint why that is, but it’s been a very significant factor in the last two weeks.
2. While we’ve had a couple of great wins this past fortnight, we can’t sustain a forward line that has Calsher and Gunner as our marking options. Hopefully, Lewis and/or Chol are available this week. As Port go with the three tall defenders – Alir, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher, it will be important to not be out marked and to bring the ball to ground and give our smalls a chance.
3. There is still some concern when our forward line includes Punky and Gunner, as neither is able to apply any ground level pressure. The choice of Breust as sub was an excellent one and he played a key role when he did come on. How we use Jack and Punky for the remainder of the season will be an interesting watch.
4. Yes, Calsher did run out of gas (you do wonder just how much last week took out of him emotionally) and he had that blooper moment with Dimma’s mark, but he again looked good. The feature of his 2023 season was the rapid development he showed, in what was his first season in the talent pathway. While his selection has been born out of necessity, his form with Box Hill and his two senior games have far surpassed expectation and are really a continuation of that development and improvement that he showed in 2203 with Sandy Dragons. He doesn’t yet have the tank or the body, but has given us a glimpse of the player he could become and it’s hard not to be excited about that. I suspect that the remainder of the season will be a mix of Box Hill and seniors for Calsher, but more so with Box Hill, especially as they are a reasonable chance of playing seniors.
5. I know this sounds like a broken record, but what is Finn’s role in the team. He’s not been playing as a tagger on the best opposition midfielder or as a defensive forward. It seems that he’s been playing a mix of half forward and wing, but neither his ball use nor his ball winning can justify his continued selection in such a role. There just has to be a better option. Perhaps CJ is his replacement when CJ is ready, though CJ would have to be a chance of replacing Massimo, whose kicking execution unfortunately doesn’t match his reputation.
6. Port at Adelaide Oval is just about the toughest test in footy at the moment. They may also be strengthened by the return of Rozee. However, their weapons are very much a known quantity – heavily reliant on Dixon and Rioli up forward (Frost and Hardwick seem the logical match ups there), Houston is their rebounder and they have that terrific mix of midfielders, headlined by the big three.