Opposition Analysis - Essendon
What we can expect heading into Sunday's game
Fast Facts
Who, where, when: Essendon, 3:20pm Sunday, UTAS
Ladder: 11th (5-7), 103%
Last 5: LWWWL
Leading goal-kicker: Cale Hooker (29)
Most disposals: Darcy Parish (377)
Last time we met: Hawthorn def Essendon by one point (Round 1, 2021)
I started last week’s preview noting how much we dislike the opposition. I’ll double down on that today! 2021 has been a dismal season, but doing the double over Essendon would honestly make up for a fair chunk of it.
It must be said we have a real chance in this one. Essendon are one of the few teams we’ve outperformed in key indicators like clearances and contested possessions. We have the Launceston advantage, and we also have Jai Newcombe, who has never lost an AFL match.
That said, the Bombers have played some pretty good footy this season (see also: the first half of Round 1) and are only two wins off the eight with a healthy percentage. Plus they will be particularly motivated this week (see also: the second half of Round 1).
Here’s a look at what they do well, and how we can beat them.
How are they travelling?
The Bombers are in some decent form. Of their last five, they’ve only lost to the Giants (by two points) and the Tigers, a game in which they were in front as late as the final term.
Between those two losses, they knocked off Freo, torched North Melbourne, and beat West Coast over in Perth (albeit a heavily depleted Eagles team who were down a rotation for most of the game). So they’re doing well enough.
Who’s missing?
The Bombers are missing a few key midfielders, with Dylan Shiel (knee), Jye Caldwell (hamstring), and Andrew McGrath (knee) all out. David Zaharakis is also likely to miss after injuring his hamstring before the bye.
One only needs to look back to Round 1 to see that McGrath is a big loss for Essendon. He had a blinder against us: he was involved in most of their possession, kicked a goal, and also laid 11 tackles.
Devon Smith (hamstring) has also been missing, but he is a strong chance to return this week. First-choice ruckman Sam Draper is also available to return from an ankle injury.
Who can hurt us?
Essendon’s forward line is very potent. Incredibly, they’ve kicked the same number of goals as the ladder-leading Demons, despite playing one fewer match. Cale Hooker and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (56 goals all up) are the main threats, and Jake Stringer is the sort of powerful mid-sizer we tend to have trouble with.
One player who has stepped up amid the midfield injuries is Darcy Parish. He’s relished his chance on the ball, racking up 34 disposals per game since Dylan Shiel’s injury in Round 2. His previous best season in that area was 21! He’s second in the AFL for clearances, and eighth for inside-50s. Clearly, Parish is in rare form and is someone we need to put some time into.
Finally, Essendon’s rebounding backmen are very, very good. Players like Dyson Heppell, Nick Hind, and Mason Redman are damaging off half-back, and Jordan Ridley is adept at intercept marking. Hind, in particular, had a very good game against us in Round 1, his first game as a Bomber. We’re going to need to focus on locking the ball inside our 50 once it’s in there.
What can we exploit?
For all the benefits of that nimble backline, it lacks height. We should really try to stretch them by playing at least three talls up front. Hello, Callow?
The Dons’ midfield injuries leave their engine room a bit shallow. After Parish and Zach Merrett, their next best (available) clearance player is Stringer (2.5 per game). Their next best contested-ball winner is Kyle Langford (six per game). We need to flag the minutes when the two main men are off the ground as the time to go for the kill.
Essendon’s ruck stocks are not exactly competition-leading. Their first choice, Sam Draper, has played 10 AFL games and is coming off a long-term injury. If he plays, I would back our Ceglar-McEvoy combination to get on top in that area of the game and give our on-ballers first use.
Venue
Moving the game to Launceston can only benefit Hawthorn. We have an excellent record there, and plenty of experience with the conditions. Essendon has only ever played in Tasmania once, a standalone match in Hobart way back in 1992.
Final thought
Is it any wonder why Jai Newcombe caught Sam Mitchell’s eye? The kid is Sammy Junior. If he even has half the career that Mitch had, we’ve got a gem.