Opposition Analysis - Sydney
What we can expect heading into tomorrow's game
Fast Facts
Who, where, when: Sydney, 7:50pm Friday, SCG
Ladder: 6th (8-4), 112.9%
Last 5: WWLWL
Leading goal-kicker: Lance Franklin (24)
Most disposals: Jake Lloyd (330)
We may viscerally dislike them, but you can’t deny the Swans are one of the success stories of 2021. They’ve not just been winning - they have beaten some serious opposition on their way to their current ladder position of sixth place.
The Swans have done it despite stacking their side with young, inexperienced players: Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Braeden Campbell, Logan McDonald, Justin McInerney, James Rowbottom, Tom McCartin, and Nick Blakey are all under 22 years old and have played six or more of their 12 games.
The return of a two-time Premiership Hawk to their forward line has also been a boost.
Incredibly, none of the five teams they play twice in 2021 are currently in the eight, so you’d have to say our upcoming opponents are finals-bound.
How are they travelling?
Not even the most one-eyed Swans fans would have predicted they’d beat Geelong, Richmond, and Brisbane this season – the latter two of those on the road. They’ve also run GWS and Melbourne close, losing those games by two and nine points.
The Swans have won their last two matches and three of their last four - with just a two-point loss to Freo (in Perth) in the middle.
So they’re in better form than us.
Who’s missing?
The Swans are pretty close to full strength. Two of those young players - Gulden and Campbell are missing with lower leg injuries, but apart from that, the medical staff aren’t being kept too busy.
Who can hurt us?
Unfortunately, one of Sydney’s key strengths coincides with one of our key deficiencies: clearances. The Swans have three players (Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Tom Hickey) with 60+ clearances, and Callum Mills has 57. The only other team with those sorts of numbers is West Coast. The Swans also rank fifth for contested possessions per game.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn lies ahead of only North Melbourne in those two key areas.
This would be a really good week to find a solution to our issues winning the ball at first instance. Having O’Meara back will be a big boost.
What can we exploit?
It’s hard to spot too many deficiencies in the Swans’ game. They have a really well-balanced team, a tight-knit back six, youthful energy, and an in-form ruckman.
The critical area where we match up well against them is in our backline. The Swans can control any area of the ground they like, but we have the capacity to stop them from converting that onto the scoreboard.
For a start, it’s worth noting that Buddy Franklin actually has a relatively poor record against Hawthorn. He’s now played ten games against the team that developed him into a superstar, and booted 25 goals. That’s his third-worst goals-per-game ratio.
As an aside, the only teams he has a worse ratio against are Geelong and Gold Coast. The former might be understandable, but the latter is a curious one considering he was at the peak of his powers when they were a fledgling club. He must have frequently been rested for those games.
The Swans’ second-most potent forward is Tom Papley, but I’ll back Blake Hardwick in to neutralise that threat.
Then there’s Logan McDonald. Last year’s fourth draft pick has booted nine goals in his six games this season. However, he was soundly beaten in his junior year by a young defender named Denver Grainger-Barras. DGB was listed as “test” on our injury list before the bye, so he should be fit by now. If we’re going to throw him straight into the senior team this week, at least we can give him a job he knows he can do.
The one concern I have is Isaac Heeney, who we don’t appear to have a good match-up for, and we should be aiming to stop the ball getting into their attacking 50 in the first place.
But in the event that their engine rooms plays to its strengths, we can still give them a good fight if our back six holds up.
Venue
The thing about venues is that, generally speaking, good teams win anywhere. It’s not coincidence, for example, that our famous run at York Park started in 2010 and ran until 2016. Our record there wasn’t nearly as good from 2004-07.
So it’s not a major surprise that Hawthorn’s good record at the SCG was between 2011 and 2018, when we won five out of five. Since then, we have been a mediocre side and lost the last three (including the loss to the Suns a couple of weeks ago).
Sydney, unsurprisingly, has won six of seven at their home ground this season. However, they had only won seven of 20 coming into this season, so this is hardly the fortress they might prefer you believe.
Final thought
A certain media outlet decided to hang the bait on social media this week by asking whether Buddy was better as a Hawk or a Swan. Like there’s any debate to be had on that matter.
This is going to be very tough. Swans are a good team and Buddy looks like he is playing into some form.