1. Confirmation that middleweight is the appropriate category – If there were any lasting concerns as to where the team sits on the divisions with the competition, then this game certainly stamped the Hawks as a team on the rise. This was evidenced more by the manner in which the game was played as against the final result. After the first 5 minutes & Dusty’s goal, having adapted to the conditions on the ground, the team was able to dictate the run of play, leaving aside some wayward goal kicking.
2. The game plan holds up at the ‘G – With the inclusion of a couple of key players from the early rounds of the season – Day & Jiath – it is evident that the Mitchell game plan works at the MCG. With their pace and ability to work in tight spaces in the midfield (Day) and defence (Jiath), the team is much better able to both create and defend in the spaces that the G provides. Earlier games in the year at the ‘G, we were reliant on players such as Maginness, Morrison & Hustwaite to cover these roles and whilst all capable within their skill set didn’t possess the run and carry that these two provide.
3. If you are not adaptable, then you need to be an “expert” in your position – As the season progresses, it is becoming more evident that part of the selection criteria appears to be the capacity for players to be adaptable to play in more than one position. If they are unable to do this, then they need to be “expert” in their role, which is only really applicable to Frost and Meek. If you look at other every other player in the team, they are all capable of playing in multiple positions or roles. The obvious examples from this game were the crumbing goal by Newcombe whilst “resting” forward and Mackenzie being hit up on the lead whilst similarly playing forward.
4. There was a glimpse to the future as Mackenzie as an inside mid – Whilst he was rundown in the end as he ran into the F50 looking to kick the ball forward, it is worth going back and watching his work in the centre square along with the subsequent work fo get himself into the position. If you believe in process over outcome, the process here was exceptional. The next step again is for him to develop his left foot – another entry he had to the City end where his shoulders were pointing to the left of the goals, so he needed a left foot shot/pass rather than trying to fashion something with his right foot.
5. Watson has a problem (or two) – As has been well noted, when taking set shots from 40+ metres, in running wide to his right, Watson has a serious technical issue to address. To his advantage, being young, it is certainly redeemable. I do wonder if it has something to do with lactic acid/leg tiredness in playing at the level. I also recall Breust having a similar issue early in his career where his set shot work wasn’t as accurate as his snapshots. For those who may think Franklin was able to accommodate a similar flaw into his game, I’d suggest that when you have thighs the size of lamp posts rather than street signs and 199cm/105kg rather than 170cm/68kg with legs as wide as street signs, there is a greater capacity to drive through the ball. The other problem for HIs who derided the “Selwood shrug”, I hope that Watson will be able to use his dancing feet to create opportunities for himself rather using his shoulders, It can be disconcerting when even your teammates take notice of it.
6. Finals are on the agenda – Considering the first point above, the run home is as follows:
• Heavyweights – Collingwood, Giants, Carlton
• Middleweights – Geelong, Fremantle*, Eagles*
• Lightweights – Crows, Richmond, North
(* If the games were played at the other venue, then Freo would be higher and Eagles lower.)
With the consensus thinking that 13 wins may get you into the 8 and given our poor percentage, we’d need 14 wins to have a genuine chance, which means that we’d need to go 7-2 on the run home. This means that we’d need to take out one of the heavyweights if you accept the gradings.
Observations:
• The last 5 minutes had a couple of moments which had a little bit of lairizing associated with them e.g. Sicily providing overlap option to Impey with either a poor handball or Sis going one handed which led to a soft goal. Our percentage would’ve been 93.1 rather than 92.7.
• Meek may be a long term watch with his ankle issue as he was having his ankle re-strapped through the ¾ time break. For ruck men, ankles can be as big a concern than a knee.
• The last 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter showed the future with Chol resting on the bench & Gunston subbed off, the F50 at one stage was Dear, Moore, Ginnivan, Mackenzie, Watson & Breust. I’m not sure that it is sustainable, although Dear snapped a goal during this time.
• From a technical perspective, Dear has to improve his kicking routine as both his goals came from shots that didn’t look to be repeatable actions. There is no doubt about his energy and enthusiasm for the contest, there is however a need to be a reliable avenue to goal the hard work up field. It was interesting that Balta matched up on him at the start of the game.
• Tackling and pressure was superb – even in losing the overall tackling stat, to the eye, the pressure on the ground looked to be our way and there was no doubt that our forward half pressure had more of an impact.
• This was the first game where Jiath, by foot, had shown some of the issues that were part of his earlier career i.e. missing targets.
• Kicking around the corner when you are taking shots in the centre corridor has to be addressed.
• Day on the run still has a little work to do to ensure that the line breaks are positives.
• Lowest score against this season with the Tigers only actually had 12 scoring shots with 7 rushed behinds contributing to their score.
• As I messaged to another HI on Saturday morning, I’ve never seen “Emotion” listed in the best players or goal kickers, so I was a little surprised at the level of nervousness that some HIs had about this game.
Starting 4:
1st Qrt: Day (13) Newcombe (16) Worpel (16)
2nd Qrt: Nash (15) Day Newcombe
3rd Qrt: Day Newcombe Worpel
4th Qrt: Nash Day Newcombe
(Meek 17 Mackenzie 8 Chol 5 Moore 4)
(First time I think that Mackenzie has had more CBA than Moore with Day taking a little fewer than others in the Big 4.)
Coach killer:
Scrimshaw trying to hit a dart on his right foot might’ve been a coach killer other than the fact that it got the Dusty goal out of the way early in the game, so there was no momentum changer to wait for – not that it would’ve have matter.
Issue for the fortnight:
Being on the bye week and then having to travel to WA, it will be a test for the professionalism of the young group as Sam alluded to in his presser. As noted earlier, if this game was to be dropped the “finals hope” generated from the past 7 weeks would be lost and the back half of the season could have a very different perspective. The Eagles at home, as has been widely noted, are a very different team at home than away, so it will be a genuine test.
As always Mick Cowan raises excellent points to ponder with his great insights.
Unfortunately this team may have to learn the hard way, that footy can be more about inches than miles. One or two poor disposals leading to oppo scores, missing goals on the run and “really bad” set shot decision making by some is overlooked by fans when we win games, but % is crucial when trying to make the 8 or even being Top 4 when good enough. Of course there is time to turn this around in 2024, and this team appears to love a challenge. Sam is correct when saying “far from a finished product” but I get a sense that ALL will know what they need to do to become the finished product “which actually never ends” #GoHawks
I’m a real Mackenzie fan. He seems to have a lot of time and is a smart footballer. Good observation though Mick about his left foot. I thought we squandered a lot of chances in the game, missed shots wrong options. They’ll need to tidy this up. Meek in the ruck makes a big difference. Nankervis is an A grade ruckman so thought he battled well. Thanks for your analysis.
What sticks out for me is the swarming pressure that unbalances the opposition and prevents it playing its game, the overall evenness of performance and the (mostly) precise ball movement
This should have been a +10 goal win and the 2025 version will do that. Richmond are not terrible their recent form has been ok - we just made them look really bad. This is now a feature.
We are a decent chance to to play finals. Our draw helps. Playing a final against Essendon and denying them the win to keep the streak alive is a delicious prospect
But do we care? Is that the goal or is it better to keep experimenting and to play all the kids and see what some of the others at Box Hill can do as they come into the mix.
This is probably not the right thread to raise this, but as we continue to improve, and an 8 goal win against Richmond was further evidence of improvement, it's hard not to think about the state of the list and how we manage that list from here to put us in a position to really challenge. In terms of 'list gaps', there are probably two that are most apparent - a high-quality key defender and an explosive midfielder to complement the existing mix.
One of the big questions is whether we back in the youngsters on our list to develop into players that can fill those gaps, do we go down the trade and free agency path or do we go to the draft again? The success with which we manage this next stage of the list rebuild will likely be pivotal in determining whether or not we can become a top four team that can genuinely contend.
Do we back in Blanck and Will McCabe to become that quality tall defender or do we go after a player such as Josh Battle? It's worth noting that Battle is the same size as Scrim and is perhaps not exactly what we're looking for. Do we back in the development of Josh Ward and the option of developing Josh Weddle as a midfielder or do we go after LDU?
We seem to have moved past Morrison and Maginness - would we consider trading them to a club such as North Melbourne, that is on the record as saying it is seeking some more experience to bolster its list. It's very hard to see Chad getting another game in the absence of Breust being injured or Watson being rested - would clubs such as Carlton, StKilda or Bulldogs, who seem to be looking for a small forward, be interested, or is Chad the type of player that North is looking to add to its list?
Then there's the question of Denver. With McCabe, Blanck and Phillips, what sort of opportunity is there for Denver in defence? And with Mabior, and the emergence of Calsher, together with him being played solely in defence with Box Hill, opportunities forward appear to be limited. Adelaide, North and StKilda, if they lose Battle, are clubs that could be open to Denver as a tall defender.
With Sicily, the development of Weddle and Scrimshaw's season, where does Jai Serong fit in? He is a young player that is at the top level with Box Hill, but it's also hard to see where his opportunities will come from. Jai may have some currency for clubs looking for a utility defender.
If a club seeking a ruckman asked about Ned Reeves, would we be open to that? Adelaide for example is in need of a ruckman to take over from O'Brien, as Strachan doesn't seem to be that player. Would we consider trading Ned?
At the end of 2007 we drafted Cyril and Stewy Dew, both of which were central to the 2008 flag and in Cyril's case, future success beyond 2008. Subsequent to that there were the acquisitions of Burgoyne, Hale and Gibson and the drafting of Brad Hill, Poppy, Isaac Smith, Duryea and Stratton that were critical to the 2013-15 success. Our approach to list management from here will be a fascinating watch. It will be a mix of astute drafting, trading and acquisition of targeted free agents that will likely determine just how far Mitch can take us.
What was learnt:
1. Confirmation that middleweight is the appropriate category – If there were any lasting concerns as to where the team sits on the divisions with the competition, then this game certainly stamped the Hawks as a team on the rise. This was evidenced more by the manner in which the game was played as against the final result. After the first 5 minutes & Dusty’s goal, having adapted to the conditions on the ground, the team was able to dictate the run of play, leaving aside some wayward goal kicking.
2. The game plan holds up at the ‘G – With the inclusion of a couple of key players from the early rounds of the season – Day & Jiath – it is evident that the Mitchell game plan works at the MCG. With their pace and ability to work in tight spaces in the midfield (Day) and defence (Jiath), the team is much better able to both create and defend in the spaces that the G provides. Earlier games in the year at the ‘G, we were reliant on players such as Maginness, Morrison & Hustwaite to cover these roles and whilst all capable within their skill set didn’t possess the run and carry that these two provide.
3. If you are not adaptable, then you need to be an “expert” in your position – As the season progresses, it is becoming more evident that part of the selection criteria appears to be the capacity for players to be adaptable to play in more than one position. If they are unable to do this, then they need to be “expert” in their role, which is only really applicable to Frost and Meek. If you look at other every other player in the team, they are all capable of playing in multiple positions or roles. The obvious examples from this game were the crumbing goal by Newcombe whilst “resting” forward and Mackenzie being hit up on the lead whilst similarly playing forward.
4. There was a glimpse to the future as Mackenzie as an inside mid – Whilst he was rundown in the end as he ran into the F50 looking to kick the ball forward, it is worth going back and watching his work in the centre square along with the subsequent work fo get himself into the position. If you believe in process over outcome, the process here was exceptional. The next step again is for him to develop his left foot – another entry he had to the City end where his shoulders were pointing to the left of the goals, so he needed a left foot shot/pass rather than trying to fashion something with his right foot.
5. Watson has a problem (or two) – As has been well noted, when taking set shots from 40+ metres, in running wide to his right, Watson has a serious technical issue to address. To his advantage, being young, it is certainly redeemable. I do wonder if it has something to do with lactic acid/leg tiredness in playing at the level. I also recall Breust having a similar issue early in his career where his set shot work wasn’t as accurate as his snapshots. For those who may think Franklin was able to accommodate a similar flaw into his game, I’d suggest that when you have thighs the size of lamp posts rather than street signs and 199cm/105kg rather than 170cm/68kg with legs as wide as street signs, there is a greater capacity to drive through the ball. The other problem for HIs who derided the “Selwood shrug”, I hope that Watson will be able to use his dancing feet to create opportunities for himself rather using his shoulders, It can be disconcerting when even your teammates take notice of it.
6. Finals are on the agenda – Considering the first point above, the run home is as follows:
• Heavyweights – Collingwood, Giants, Carlton
• Middleweights – Geelong, Fremantle*, Eagles*
• Lightweights – Crows, Richmond, North
(* If the games were played at the other venue, then Freo would be higher and Eagles lower.)
With the consensus thinking that 13 wins may get you into the 8 and given our poor percentage, we’d need 14 wins to have a genuine chance, which means that we’d need to go 7-2 on the run home. This means that we’d need to take out one of the heavyweights if you accept the gradings.
Observations:
• The last 5 minutes had a couple of moments which had a little bit of lairizing associated with them e.g. Sicily providing overlap option to Impey with either a poor handball or Sis going one handed which led to a soft goal. Our percentage would’ve been 93.1 rather than 92.7.
• Meek may be a long term watch with his ankle issue as he was having his ankle re-strapped through the ¾ time break. For ruck men, ankles can be as big a concern than a knee.
• The last 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter showed the future with Chol resting on the bench & Gunston subbed off, the F50 at one stage was Dear, Moore, Ginnivan, Mackenzie, Watson & Breust. I’m not sure that it is sustainable, although Dear snapped a goal during this time.
• From a technical perspective, Dear has to improve his kicking routine as both his goals came from shots that didn’t look to be repeatable actions. There is no doubt about his energy and enthusiasm for the contest, there is however a need to be a reliable avenue to goal the hard work up field. It was interesting that Balta matched up on him at the start of the game.
• Tackling and pressure was superb – even in losing the overall tackling stat, to the eye, the pressure on the ground looked to be our way and there was no doubt that our forward half pressure had more of an impact.
• This was the first game where Jiath, by foot, had shown some of the issues that were part of his earlier career i.e. missing targets.
• Kicking around the corner when you are taking shots in the centre corridor has to be addressed.
• Day on the run still has a little work to do to ensure that the line breaks are positives.
• Lowest score against this season with the Tigers only actually had 12 scoring shots with 7 rushed behinds contributing to their score.
• As I messaged to another HI on Saturday morning, I’ve never seen “Emotion” listed in the best players or goal kickers, so I was a little surprised at the level of nervousness that some HIs had about this game.
Starting 4:
1st Qrt: Day (13) Newcombe (16) Worpel (16)
2nd Qrt: Nash (15) Day Newcombe
3rd Qrt: Day Newcombe Worpel
4th Qrt: Nash Day Newcombe
(Meek 17 Mackenzie 8 Chol 5 Moore 4)
(First time I think that Mackenzie has had more CBA than Moore with Day taking a little fewer than others in the Big 4.)
Coach killer:
Scrimshaw trying to hit a dart on his right foot might’ve been a coach killer other than the fact that it got the Dusty goal out of the way early in the game, so there was no momentum changer to wait for – not that it would’ve have matter.
Issue for the fortnight:
Being on the bye week and then having to travel to WA, it will be a test for the professionalism of the young group as Sam alluded to in his presser. As noted earlier, if this game was to be dropped the “finals hope” generated from the past 7 weeks would be lost and the back half of the season could have a very different perspective. The Eagles at home, as has been widely noted, are a very different team at home than away, so it will be a genuine test.
5 week rolling average ladder
ROUND FOR AGAINST %
1-5 64 98 64.84%
2-6 70 91 77.04%
3-7 71 96 73.85%
4-8 76 93 82.29%
5-9 73 88 83.60%
6-10 78 82 95.12%
7-11 75 83 90.41%
8-12 88 76 116.62%
9-13 86 73 116.89%
10-14 94 73 128.93%
Coaches' votes
5. Sicily Sicily
4. Newcombe Newcombe
3. Weddle* Chol*
2. Scrimshaw* Taranto*
1. Taranto* Scrimshaw*
*Interchangeable
I agree with all of Bintang Brad’s early calls…….
As always Mick Cowan raises excellent points to ponder with his great insights.
Unfortunately this team may have to learn the hard way, that footy can be more about inches than miles. One or two poor disposals leading to oppo scores, missing goals on the run and “really bad” set shot decision making by some is overlooked by fans when we win games, but % is crucial when trying to make the 8 or even being Top 4 when good enough. Of course there is time to turn this around in 2024, and this team appears to love a challenge. Sam is correct when saying “far from a finished product” but I get a sense that ALL will know what they need to do to become the finished product “which actually never ends” #GoHawks
I’m a real Mackenzie fan. He seems to have a lot of time and is a smart footballer. Good observation though Mick about his left foot. I thought we squandered a lot of chances in the game, missed shots wrong options. They’ll need to tidy this up. Meek in the ruck makes a big difference. Nankervis is an A grade ruckman so thought he battled well. Thanks for your analysis.
Agree with Mackenzie AND he kicks goals so a massive plus from me. Big Fan here!
Thanks guys.
What sticks out for me is the swarming pressure that unbalances the opposition and prevents it playing its game, the overall evenness of performance and the (mostly) precise ball movement
This should have been a +10 goal win and the 2025 version will do that. Richmond are not terrible their recent form has been ok - we just made them look really bad. This is now a feature.
We are a decent chance to to play finals. Our draw helps. Playing a final against Essendon and denying them the win to keep the streak alive is a delicious prospect
But do we care? Is that the goal or is it better to keep experimenting and to play all the kids and see what some of the others at Box Hill can do as they come into the mix.
This is probably not the right thread to raise this, but as we continue to improve, and an 8 goal win against Richmond was further evidence of improvement, it's hard not to think about the state of the list and how we manage that list from here to put us in a position to really challenge. In terms of 'list gaps', there are probably two that are most apparent - a high-quality key defender and an explosive midfielder to complement the existing mix.
One of the big questions is whether we back in the youngsters on our list to develop into players that can fill those gaps, do we go down the trade and free agency path or do we go to the draft again? The success with which we manage this next stage of the list rebuild will likely be pivotal in determining whether or not we can become a top four team that can genuinely contend.
Do we back in Blanck and Will McCabe to become that quality tall defender or do we go after a player such as Josh Battle? It's worth noting that Battle is the same size as Scrim and is perhaps not exactly what we're looking for. Do we back in the development of Josh Ward and the option of developing Josh Weddle as a midfielder or do we go after LDU?
We seem to have moved past Morrison and Maginness - would we consider trading them to a club such as North Melbourne, that is on the record as saying it is seeking some more experience to bolster its list. It's very hard to see Chad getting another game in the absence of Breust being injured or Watson being rested - would clubs such as Carlton, StKilda or Bulldogs, who seem to be looking for a small forward, be interested, or is Chad the type of player that North is looking to add to its list?
Then there's the question of Denver. With McCabe, Blanck and Phillips, what sort of opportunity is there for Denver in defence? And with Mabior, and the emergence of Calsher, together with him being played solely in defence with Box Hill, opportunities forward appear to be limited. Adelaide, North and StKilda, if they lose Battle, are clubs that could be open to Denver as a tall defender.
With Sicily, the development of Weddle and Scrimshaw's season, where does Jai Serong fit in? He is a young player that is at the top level with Box Hill, but it's also hard to see where his opportunities will come from. Jai may have some currency for clubs looking for a utility defender.
If a club seeking a ruckman asked about Ned Reeves, would we be open to that? Adelaide for example is in need of a ruckman to take over from O'Brien, as Strachan doesn't seem to be that player. Would we consider trading Ned?
At the end of 2007 we drafted Cyril and Stewy Dew, both of which were central to the 2008 flag and in Cyril's case, future success beyond 2008. Subsequent to that there were the acquisitions of Burgoyne, Hale and Gibson and the drafting of Brad Hill, Poppy, Isaac Smith, Duryea and Stratton that were critical to the 2013-15 success. Our approach to list management from here will be a fascinating watch. It will be a mix of astute drafting, trading and acquisition of targeted free agents that will likely determine just how far Mitch can take us.