Could there be a Jai-ant problem brewing?

“He is Roughy to Will Day’s Buddy,” said one Hawthorn source

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Ever wondered what a 14-year-old is thinking in between Maths and English classes on a Thursday afternoon? ETHAN WEISS (son of Andrew) makes his HI debut with a reflection on Jai Newcombe’s slow start to 2024. Could this be the round he gathers some form?

When Hawthorn supporters think of Mr Reliable at our club, they may think of the contested marking James Sicily, or the one-on-one battler in Blake Hardwick. But another name that would’ve been considered at the end of the 2023 season would’ve been our midfield gem in Jai Newcombe.

Jai’s pre-season got off to an amazing start, racking up 37 disposals, nine marks and seven clearances despite the Hawks losing to the Western Bulldogs by a whopping 57 points in our official AAMI Community Series Match.

Newc was looking huge and ready to embrace the new season. A couple weeks later, the beginning of the 2024 AFL season got under way, with the Hawks playing our bitter rivals the Bombers in round one.

Let’s face it — we haven’t seen too much success in the last few weeks having lost to Essendon and being thumped by both the Demons and Geelong in rounds two and three.

All of a sudden, all eyes have turned to Newcombe, and his on-ground performances. Jai hasn’t shown too many signs of being that Mr Reliable early on this year, and the stats below definitely don’t show us Jai’s good side.

Based on the stats from the opening three rounds of 2022 and 2023, we can see Newc hasn’t adjusted to the beginning of seasons in the past. In fact, he’s struggled to put numbers into the stat sheet in early rounds of AFL seasons.

When looking at the opening three rounds, it’s clear we can see a pattern throughout the 2022, 2023 and 2024 starts to the season.

We have had some good individual talent in our midfield throughout the last three weeks, but as a group have been dominated in the centre of the ground in all three games.

That is why we need to ask ourselves a tough question: “Has Jai’s slow start contributed to our midfield being dominated for the first three rounds of 2024?”

The stats in the middle from the opening few rounds do not make for good reading:

This isn’t just about Jai…

The individual form of our midfielders this season compared to last season have been completely split down the middle, with some improving, and some going backwards.

JAMES WORPEL

It is without a doubt that James Worpel has been one of our best, if not the best, player to wear the Hawthorn guernsey this year.

The influence that he has had on all three games have been tremendous.

Even during the tough losing streak for the club, he has been one of the players that has definitely improved, and should even have polled a few early Brownlow and Peter Crimmins Medal votes.

CONOR NASH

The tough, big bodied Irish midfielder hasn’t embraced 2024 in the way that he was probably planning, and we haven’t really seen the consistent side of Nash this year that we usually do.

In the Easter Monday clash he was nowhere to be found in the first quarter, but as the team started to progress and have more scoring opportunities throughout the game, his presence became more and more clear. He had some very good moments, and was arguably one of our best players after quarter time, having racked up 19 touches in the last three terms of the match.

However, we are still waiting to see the true, Mr Consistent four-quarter Conor Nash in 2024. That’s why he’s been one of our players to have gone ever so slightly backwards from last year, despite having some decent numbers on the stat sheet.

CAM MACKENZIE

After being our first round draft pick in the 2022 AFL National Draft, we have been waiting to see the progression of Cam Mackenzie for a long time.

After the first few games, I can confidently say he has been one of the young players of the club whose stocks have sharply risen.

Based on his performances both this year and last year, you can tell he has worked very hard throughout the preseason on his game and it has paid off. He has grown as a player, shown us what he can truly do, and why we took him with a first round draft pick.

JOSH WARD

Josh Ward — like Mackenzie — is a young, first round draft pick who this year has played as a flashy outside midfielder and winger.

He has mainly been put on the wing by Sam Mitchell, but seems to go in for it at stoppages around the ground.

This year Ward has shown some really good signs on the wing, especially being part of a lot of switch play while we are trying to swap the ball from one side of the ground to the other.

His potential and future, however, remains unclear. He hasn’t had his name too high up on the stats sheet yet this season for disposals, clearances or inside 50s, which is a concern.

I think he needs to improve his all round game before Mitchell has the idea to eventually chuck him into the middle of the ground.

WILL DAY

Last but not least, there is Will Day.

We all know what a huge year Day had last season. He took his game in 2023 to the next level, playing in the middle for most of the year but also coming down back to take intercept marks when we needed him — which ended up rewarding him with his maiden Peter Crimmins Medal.

Without a doubt he is one of our most important players, and for some people, it is no surprise that our midfield hasn’t been great this season with Day out for another 4-6 weeks with a foot injury.

It does hurt us, but it’s an opportunity for younger players like Mackenzie, Ward and Henry Hustwaite to step in and get more games under their belt.

That is why our group of midfielders have got to start proving themselves. Because if things haven’t changed by the time Day comes back, there will be names that will be cut from the team sheet from that group.

Why we shouldn’t be worried (yet)

Despite a shaky start, Newcombe became a clear standout by the end of 2023, winning many individual awards and honours for the year, such as:

• Runner up in Peter Crimmins Medal for 2nd time in a row;

• All-Australian squad of 40;

• Under 22 team Vice Captain.

It’s disappointing seeing Newc play like this after such a strong 2023 and preseason, but there is no reason we should be worried yet.

We’ve seen in the past couple of years how lethal he can be, and how important he is to our midfield group. He is only 22 years old after all.

Against a deflated 2024 Collingwood side who don’t have the most impressive names in its midfield, I think that this week could be Jai’s return to the top of the stats sheet.

What our ‘other’ Insiders think:

DANNY PRINS

It’s obvious Jai Newcombe’s start to the season hasn’t been as good as expected, but when considering a player like Jai’s form, it’s important to remember he has played just over 50 AFL games and is 22 years old. There is no reason to panic when assessing his slow start to 2024.

BRAD KLIBANSKY

It’s not panic stations yet. There were better signs against the Cats on Monday, especially with his clearance work. The tides will turn in the coming weeks.

SIMON MORAWETZ

I’m not too concerned. It has been a weird start to the season in a way, we've had a mix of tough weather conditions and changed game styles that haven't suited him so well. Confident he will get back to his best once the season settles into a groove. Form is temporary.

ASHLEY BROWNE

Observers believe Newcombe might have entered the season under an injury cloud and his meteoric rise the last two seasons has placed him under the microscope of opposition strategists. Furthermore, he played his best football last year with Will Day beside him. Day has yet to play this year because of a foot injury. “He is Roughy to Will Day’s Buddy,” said one Hawthorn source.

What do you think?

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