Charting Jai Newcombe's incredible form
And the Rising Star goes to...
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Jai Newcombe should win this year’s Rising Star in a canter.
He’ll probably have a podium finish in the Peter Crimmins too, along with Jack Scrimshaw and James Sicily.
In just his second year, Jai is averaging 22.5 disposals, 4.2 tackles and 3.6 clearances. But that doesn’t really tell the full story of his impact on games.
The AFL Player Ratings system may be infamous for deeming players like Jeremy Finlayson and Aaron Hall as “elite”, but it’s arguably the best measure we have for assessing a players’ true impact on games.
Developed a decade ago by renowned statistician Dr Karl Jackson, it takes into account three key areas of the game:
How you win the ball;
Where on the ground you win the ball; and
What you do with the ball.
When you take all of the above into account, there’s Jai Newcombe on the top end of the chart, averaging more than 12 Rating points per game, and then there’s daylight to the next group of contenders including Nic Martin, Jake Bowey, Jack Ginnivan and Heath Chapman. The highly fancied Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos are both averaging under eight.
In fact, when you plot Newcombe’s AFL Ratings points against previous years, he’s miles ahead of superstars such as Marcus Bontempelli, Jaeger O’Meara, Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh at this stage of his career.
This is exactly what AFL Fantasy whiz and statistics major Jaiden Popowski did in a tweet that picked up a lot of traction yesterday. (You can follow Jaiden on Twitter here.)
When we reached out to Jaiden on Twitter, he stood by the AFL Ratings system as the closest measure to what fans see.
“We often see graphics informing users about how many disposals each player has had or how many goals they've kicked. These statistics are good for simplistic descriptions of a player's performance yet they can't describe what your own eyes see. This is why I like the AFL Player Ratings because they take the position and time into context - mimicking what we as fans see. unk-time possessions or easy goals can make simpler stats easier to misinterpret. Context is everything, which is why us as fans will always disagree on who the 'best player' is.”
Jaiden was full of praise for Newcombe. Looking at the statistics, he said what’s most impressive about is his ability to “do it all”.
“Jai has the ability to run both ways - the distance leader for the Hawks in their Round 10 win. He is a strong defensive player averaging 4.2 tackles and 21 pressure acts this year. He can take marks on the outside, averaging 5.1 marks per game. With almost 500m per game places him in the top 10 for metres gained. This translates well to him averaging 6.2 score involvements per game.”
Jaiden also sent us another chart, plotting score involvements and metres gained per disposal for players averaging 20+ disposals and 10+ centre bounce attendees in 2022. Newcombe stacks up well even against some of the most elite players in the comp such as Bailey Smith, Christian Petracca, Marcus Bontempelli, and Jordan De Goey.
And The Rising Star Goes To…
The running joke among Hawks fans is that even if Newcombe continues this rich vein of form he’ll be pipped at the post by 2022 draft poster boys Nick Daicos or Jason Horne-Francis, or even Josh Rachele who is averaging 1.5 goals per game at Adelaide.
Hawthorn has had a checkered history with the Rising Star. Our last winner was Sam Mitchell in 2003, but since then we’ve seen Cyril Rioli pipped by Future Hall Of Famer, Norm Smith medallist and four-time Premiership player Rhys Palmer (sorry - that was the other way around) and Ryan Burton by Andrew McGrath after some alleged lobbying by Essendon power brokers.
Our statistician friend Jaiden - a diehard Pies fan - said he’d love to see Daicos or teammate Jack Ginnivan win the award, but concedes it’ll take “something special” for them to beat Newcombe on current form.
“If he can see out the year with consistency, his role highlights how important he is to the Hawks and should deservedly win the award.”
As for Jai himself? Despite his unassuming nature, he told Nine News he’d love to win it. “I’d love to take that [home] by the end of the year but we’ve got a long way to go before that plays out,” he said.
It’s his to lose now based on current form. Unless Rhys Palmer comes out of retirement, of course.
Saw early Leigh Matthews play in 1969 and 1970. Not saying this boy is another Matthews. But he does bear some resemblance and create similar levels of chaos when he is around the ball.
After listening to the player review podcast even Brad thinks he goes alright!!!