Will we regret letting TOB go?

Timmy's biggest fan pens an emotional farewell

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Every Hawthorn fan on Facebook’s favourite player is now officially a Western Bulldog. Tim O’Brien was an unrestricted free agent and got offered a two year deal to join a team that is firmly inside the premiership window. Hawthorn will not receive any compensation pick from the AFL.

And then this happened…

Western Bulldogs @westernbulldogs

Tim O'Brien's highlights will put a spring in your step! ✈️

“Tim O'Brien's highlights will definitely put a spring in your step! ”

Being a Hawthorn fan and seeing the Western Bulldogs post this during trade period is like seeing your ex’s social feed - they’re having a great time while you’re still desperately trying to find somebody exciting and new. There was even an airplane emoji, rubbing it in!

Yeah, I’m doing great too - thanks for asking.

This is a separation I might not get over very quickly. Join me as I eat a tub of ice-cream in my pyjamas and look back at TOB’s 2021 and why we will all regret letting him go.

Part 1 - Timmy The Forward

In the first five rounds of 2021, Tim O'Brien was ranked 18th in the league for goal assists with the next best Hawthorn player at that time being Liam Shiels at 57.

In round six, Timmy was moved back against Adelaide and started playing there more often until he finished the season largely as a defender.

Timmy’s goal kicking accuracy from rounds one to five was 100%. That included the match winner against Essendon in the opening round. He finished the season with 12 goals and five behinds which is an accuracy of 70% in front of goal. The league average in 2021 was 52%. Luke Breust’s career accuracy is 68.48%.

Timmy’s strength is when he gets to run and jump at the ball. There is a reason he looks like he drops a lot of marks – because he gets there to make a contest a lot of the time. I am genuinely surprised he isn’t injured from crash landing.

If nothing else, he is durable. Where Tim struggled was when he was forced to be a key forward target. He is not built to wrestle the backline gorillas and it impacted his game.

Part 2 – Timmy The Defender

On to round six in Tasmania and the Crows couldn’t miss the goals if they tried. It looked like Adelaide’s freaky accuracy was going to overshadow Kosi’s breakout performance up forward when Clarko moved Timmy to the backline.

Adelaide’s scoring instantly dried up. From then on, Timmy was largely a defender for the remainder of the year. His stats increased, he looked like he started marking the ball a bit more, and a lot of fans found themselves really liking the move.

To get an idea how well Tim did in defence, let’s compare him to an intercept defender who is considered elite by almost all commentators and fans: Jake Lever from Melbourne.

Disposals per game:

TOB 12.17
Lever 15.56

Marks per game:

TOB 5
Lever 5.44

Contested marks per game:

TOB 1.39
Lever 1.76

Average clangers per game:

TOB 2.22
Jake Lever 2.28

Disposal Efficiency

TOB 75.35%
Lever 82.26%

As you can see, against the benchmark intercepting defender in the league Timmy stacks up very well. Lever had the advantage of playing consistently in one position all year in premiership-winning team.

Timmy played as a swingman and found himself forward a few times, like in round 23 after Kosi went down. You have to wonder how he will go in a settled outfit, in one position, and with a mature and proven game plan.

In overall league rankings, Timmy has decent disposal and no doubt to the surprise of many actually hold a lot of marks.

In 2021, O’Brien was ranked 319th in the league for clangers per game (out of 568 players). He was ranked 46th in the league for average contested marks per game.

He took more contested marks per game this year than Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy (Eagles version), Steven May, or Brodie Grundy. At the Hawks, only Mitch Lewis, Ben McEvoy and Jon Ceglar took more contested marks per game than him in 2021.

Timmy might drop a few attempted speccys but he always provides a contest and actually holds the ball more often than fans think. In fact, Tim took the same number of marks per game this year as Will Day did.

But I know writing this is ultimately a waste of time…

To some fans it did not matter that Timmy kicked the winning goal against Essendon in round one, saved the game against Adelaide in round six, marked everything in round 20 when Brisbane was coming at us hard, or took the real Mark Of The Year in round 15.

For any other player that would be enough to earn the love of fans. Just kicking a match-winning goal against Essendon and breaking their hearts should be rewarded with a knighthood and public holiday!

But sometimes Tim didn’t mark the ball and that was too much for a small group of fans who cross the line between critiquing players and bullying them.

Cue the incessant and tiresome calls of “Almost” as Tim joined whipping boys like Ryan Schoenmakers and Taylor Duryea who played their roles but could never match the lofty standards that only exist in some fans’ heads and for some reason are only strictly apply to certain players.

I look forward to seeing who will be chosen next by miserable fans to blame for Hawthorn’s losses and for their own unsatisfying lives.

I wish Tim all the best at the Western Bulldogs. I hope he and Duyrea take the Western Bulldogs to a flag while the Hawks are rebuilding.  I have always believed that at some point Timmy will suddenly hold his marks and we’ll be treated to a Peter Knights-like performance for a season or two.

Time has been running out, though, and now if/when it happens it will not be for the Hawks. At the very least, with Timmy at one end and Naughton at the other the Dogs will be very entertaining to watch any time the ball is in the air.

I am always sad when a player leaves. I love the club and the players who all do their part to make Hawthorn the most envied club in the league. Everybody who plays for Hawthorn has a special place in my heart forever and I can only wish they succeed no matter who they now play for.

Unless they go to Geelong.

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