Selection Dissection: Within Touching Distance
The Hawks are hunting an unlikely Grand Final spot on Friday night, and it's the 'old enemy' Geelong standing in our way
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Preliminary Final — Hawthorn vs Geelong
Friday, September 19 — 7:40pm @ MCG
Is this a dream? If you told me eight weeks ago that we would win two interstate finals and be in a Preliminary Final, I would have laughed in your face. But, here we are. We’re in a Preliminary Final, with a good chance to make the Grand Final. All we have to do is get over our arch rival, Geelong. That shouldn’t be too hard, should it?
Since 2000, the Hawks and Cats have played in 6 finals with the Hawks winning 4 and the Cats 2.
With everyone getting through training this week after a few small nervous moments (Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan) last week against the Crows, it’s very likely we will go in unchanged for the biggest game of the season (to date).
🛡️ Defence:
Josh Battle has the toughest job this week against the Coleman Medalist Jeremy Cameron. Battle has played Cameron well in recent years and will need to play one of the best games of his career tomorrow night. If Battle can hold Cameron to under three goals, I think we will win.
Tom Barrass will get the role on Shannon Neale and should be able to get the better of him. Blake Hardwick will likely get Tyson Stengle.
The Cats have elite half forwards in Miers, Mannagh and Close. Miers is their best ball user and can’t be given space. His delivery inside 50 is the best in the AFL.
⚙️ Midfield:
“Mr September” Jai Newcombe did it again against the Crows. He’s now played four finals in a row where he’s been the #1 rated player on the ground, and in his first four ever finals too. What a player he’s become! This week will be his toughest test yet.
He’s guaranteed to cop a heavy tag. The Cats have two of the best taggers in Oisin Mullin and Mark O’Connor. Mullin held McCluggage to just four kicks and 14 disposals two weeks ago and I think he will tag Newcombe. I expect O’Connor to get the job on Nick “The Wizard” Watson.
The Cats midfield is not deep and we can win the battle in the trenches.
Josh Ward was superb last week and played his best game for the club. He must back it up this week. Worpel and Nash will also have to stand up as they did against the Crows last week.
Max Holmes is a worry as I don’t think we have a good match-up for him. Weddle would be the best match-up but he will play on the wing and go head to head with Ollie Dempsey, who’s been the best wingman in the AFL this season.
🤾♂️ Ruck:
Meeky was a colossus last week against the Crows. Rhys Stanley is likely to miss with a hamstring injury, which means Mark Blicavs will be their primary ruck this week. We need to do everything we can to make this a highly contested game.
If there are a lot of stoppages, Meek will be able to use his physicality to his advantage. The ruck battle will go along way in deciding this game.
⚡ Forwards:
He did again! With five goals against the Crows, Jack Gunston, has kicked an incredible 70 goals for the season, a career high! After spending the last 10+ minutes on the bench last week with Jack Ginnivan, due to hamstring “awareness”, both have been declared fit to play.
It is likely that Watson will cop heavy attention from Mark O’Connor, so we will need Moore, MacDonald and Ginnivan to step up and hit the scoreboard this week. Similarly to the game against the Giants, we will need at least 6 goals from the small forwards against the Cats.
Mitch Lewis is another who needs a big game. He has been disappointing since returning from his knee injury. The MCG is the best ground for him with the way he plays. There are no excuses this week, the coach has backed him in and he needs to repay the faith.
🚇 The sub:
Once again, I thought CJ struggled as the sub against the Crows. I would drop him this week and would bring in an extra midfielder in Cam Mackenzie.
However, I don’t expect that to happen. The coach won’t change what we’ve seen the last two weeks. If there are no injuries, expect Jiath to replace Mitch Lewis half way through the 3rd quarter. Weddle will move to the forward line, with Jiath replacing him on the wing.
🤦 Ben Ronke of the Week
Brad Close to kick three goals
🔮 Selection Predictions 🔮
What should happen:
Out: Jiath (ommitted)
In: Mackenzie
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M.D’Ambrosio, C.Nash, J.Weddle
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Chol, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, J.Ward
I/C: J.Worpel, J.Scrimshaw, S.Butler, C.Macdonald, C.Mackenzie (sub)
Emg: J.Serong, N.Reeves, C.Jiath
What will happen:
No change
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M.D’Ambrosio, C.Nash, J.Weddle
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Chol, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, J.Ward
I/C: J.Worpel, J.Scrimshaw, S.Butler, C.Macdonald, C Jiath (sub)
Emg: J.Serong, N.Reeves, C.Mackenzie
Depth B.MacDonald, M.Ramsden, C. Anderson, S.Frost, J.Blanck, W.McCabe, J. Scaife, H.Hustwaite, M.Hill, B.Ryan, J.Uhr-Henry, N.Mraz
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Brad- a slightly left field suggestion- have CJ simply stop Smith. Tag the absolute crap out of him and maybe by simplifying it for CJ it will make the game so much easier for him. I watch him and he looks like someone that is so excited to be out there that his body is moving faster than his mind. I think somehow he needs to be able to slow the game down in his mind.
I think stopping Holmes, Smith and Cameron are the keys. If we can prevent those 3 from having a huge influence we will win this game.
Totally agree Brad. As I said last week CJ makes too many bad decisions…..it could have cost us last week if we didn’t have such a score buffer. Love to see McKenzie sub.
Hopefully Lewis is playing so well he doesn’t need to be subbed in the third quarter!
If we can keep their small guys in check we win. My worry a little bit is our backline is pretty tall and not super quick. A lot rests on Impey and Amon.