Selection Dissection: Win or Season Over?
This could be the moment - the game that once and for all relegates us to a season of lower expectations than those we had three weeks back.
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Hawthorn v Adelaide
Thursday 21 May @ UTAS Stadium, 7:30pm
Is it to early for me to say it? SEASO. ….?? I think so. While last Saturday against Melbourne was one of our worst loses over the past 24 months, it’s not panic stations, YET.
We have a massive three weeks coming up before the bye and must win at least two, if not all three if we are to make the top 4 this season.
We head to our home away from home this Thursday night to celebrate 25 years in Tassie as we take on the in-form Adelaide Crows. The Crows have won three in a row and just scored 133 points against North Melbourne without Riley Thilthorpe and Tex Walker.
We look set to regain some key players this week, which means there will likely be some big changes from the side that lost to Melbourne by 39 points.
In other good news, Will Day will play in the VFL this week and next. Fingers crossed he can get through and be ready to return to the AFL side for our clash against the Western Bulldogs in Round 13.
The Backline
We knew Tom Barrass would be missed, but didn’t anyone expect a Melbourne forward line led by Harrison Petty and Jacob Van Rooyen to kick 120 points? What we saw against the Dees would be ringing alarm bells for Sam Mitchell and Kade Simpson.
The Crows look set to regain Thilthorpe with Taylor Walker being slated for a stint in the reserves this week. Jack Scrimshaw injured his knee at training last week and is still struggling, so won’t be considered this week. I thought Bodie Ryan was excellent against the Dees, especially with his attack on the ball and must remain in the side.
Jarman Impey copped a knock to his calf last week and failed to train this week. I expect him to miss. This will be a massive blow, as Impey has been one of our best and most consistent players this season.
Flynn Perez was excellent in the VFL (27 touches, 8 marks and 1 goal) and should be in the mix to replace Impey along with Bailey Macdoanld.
In the mix: Noah Mraz, Bailey Macdonald, Flynn Perez
The Midfield
Welcome back Conor Nash. Nash will return from concussion which will make a massive difference. The Irishman was missed big time in the midfield against the Dees. I touched on it last week regarding the role he plays and how important he is for the rest of the midfielders, especially the co-captain Jai Newcombe. Our midfield got bullied by the Demons midfielders last week and must respond this week.
Nash will get the role on Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson, who is in sensational form. Unfortunately Henry Hustwaite didn’t take his opportunity last week and will be omitted for Nash.
Finn Maginness came in last week and played a decent role on Kozzy Pickett but once again his disposal let him down. The coach has a massive call to make this week on whether Maginness holds his spot. If he does, he will get the role on Izak Rankine. Rankine is currently in great form and is the Crows best player.
The Ruck
Panic stations! The last thre to four weeks of the Ned Reeves / Lloyd Meek combo has not been good. In fact, it’s been a disaster.
Last week, Meek only played 47% game time. We are better off playing an extra runner and going with Reeves solo. I think Reeves’s tap work, especially in the middle is too crucial, so I would be going with him moving forward.
Mabior Chol can play the back up role when required or even Josh Weddle.
The Forward Line
Like Barrass down back, Jack Gunston was equally missed up forward against the Dees. Unfortunately, it looks like Gunston will miss again this week. In better news, Chol will return from a hamstring injury. Chol’s absence has been felt big time over the past few weeks and his return will go a long way for us winning this game.
It was great to see Dylan Moore return to some form last week after a few quiet weeks. Lets hope he can back it up again this week. The other small forwards weren’t great against Melbourne and will need to hit the scoreboard this week.
Unfortunately Calsher Dear and Max Ramsden struggled last week. Ramsden will be dropped for Chol, whilst Dear may get a reprieve with Gunston likely to miss.
In the mix: Mabior Chol, Will McCabe, Aidan Schubert, Jack Dalton, Matt Hill, Cameron Nairn
Ben Ronke Of The Week
Toby Murray to kick 3+
What Should Happen:
Out: Morrison (omitted), Hustwaite (omitted), Ramsden (omitted), Meek (omitted), Impey (injured)
In: Butler, Nash, Chol, B.Macdonald, Nairn (debut)
B: Hardwick - Battle - Ryan
HB: Amon - Sicily - Weddle
C: D’Ambrosio - Ward - Ginnivan
HF: Moore - Lewis - C.Macdonald
F: Watson - Chol - Dear
FOL: Reeves - Newcombe - Nash
INT: Mackenzie - Nairn - B.Macdonald - Maginness - Butler
Emg: Hill - McCabe - Morrison
What Will Happen:
Out: Morrison (omitted), Hustwaite (omitted), Ramsden (omitted), Meek (omitted), Impey (Injured)
In: Butler, Nash, Chol, B.Macdonald, Nairn (debut)
B: Hardwick - Battle - Ryan
HB: Amon - Sicily - Weddle
C: D’Ambrosio - Ward - Ginnivan
HF: Moore - Lewis - C.Macdonald
F: Watson - Chol - Dear
FOL: Reeves - Newcombe - Nash
INT: Mackenzie - Nairn - B.Macdonald - Maginness - Butler
Emg: Hill - McCabe - Morrison
Under the pump
Harry Morrison and Finn Maginness are the two players under the pump this week - that is if they survive the cull at the selection table for this match.
Calsher Dear is also going to be looking over his shoulder with Jack Gunston to come back into the line up next week against the Saints.
In the mix
Will McCabe, Flynn Perez, Aidan Schubert, Harry Morrison, Ollie Greeves, Matt Leray, Matt Hill, Max Ramsden, Henry Hustwaite
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Ave. age 25.00
Ave games 101.35 (97.22)