Selection Dissection: Time to Respond
The Hawks just have to bounce back from the disappointing loss to the Lions. Pies are on the menu.
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Hawthorn v Collingwood
Saturday 15 August, MCG @ 7:40pm
Panic stations!
What was that performance against the Brisbane Lions last Friday night? We fielded our strongest team of the season against a side coming off a 12-goal loss and got absolutely smashed. The biggest worry? We won the clearances and centre clearances, yet still lost by 67 points.
This week’s game against Collingwood is absolutely massive. Lose this game and it’s season over. Like last week, there are no excuses. The Magpies will be without most of their first-choice backline, along with several other important players. We should be winning this game and winning it convincingly.
The coach has some big calls to make at selection this week. Bailey Macdonald was “managed” last week and his pace was sorely missed. If he returns, it will likely be at the expense of Sam Butler, but that would leave us with eight defenders again. Then there’s the two-ruck setup. Do we need to bring in an extra runner? Good luck, Sam!
The Defenders
Arguably their worst performance of the past two years.
Other than Blake Hardwick, the entire backline struggled and looked badly disorganised. Tom Barrass, in particular, would have had a tough review.
Looking ahead to this week, Collingwood really has only one key forward in red-hot form: Dan McStay. His past six weeks have been at an All-Australian standard. Lachie Schultz is also a quality small forward, but I expect Blake Hardwick to get that matchup and limit his influence.
Our backline should be holding this Collingwood side to 12 goals or fewer. If they can do that, it should be enough to win the game.
The Midfield
Despite coming up against a star-studded Brisbane midfield, I thought our midfield held up reasonably well last week.
Jai Newcombe was strong again, while Josh Ward and Cam Mackenzie continued their good form. Unfortunately, Will Day had a rare off night and must bounce back this week.
Either Day or Newcombe is likely to cop attention from Ed Allan, who has developed into one of the AFL’s best run-with players.
The biggest dilemma this week is what to do with Nick Daicos.
Daicos is on track to win the Brownlow Medal and is currently the best player in the AFL. He has been heavily tagged in recent weeks and is still finding 35-plus disposals with ease.
I can’t see Finn Maginness coming into the side, which suggests there’ll be no hard tag. Expect Daicos to have 40-plus disposals. Hopefully, most of them come in Collingwood’s back half.
The Rucks
I wrote about my concerns with our ruck setup a few weeks ago while Ned Reeves was injured, and those concerns remain.
However, the coaching staff appear committed to the two-ruck structure, and at this stage of the season it’s probably too late to change course.
We know what we’re going to get from Reeves and Lloyd Meek. We simply have to hope both are performing at their best when finals arrive.
It would also be nice to see Meek play with a little more aggression and Reeves start clunking some marks around the ground.
The Forwards
Like the backline, the forwards had a disastrous night against Brisbane. Other than Jack Gunston, the talls and smalls had little impact and were comprehensively beaten.
Thankfully, they have the perfect opportunity to bounce back this week.
Collingwood will be without Maynard, Howe, Moore and Perryman, leaving their defence significantly undermanned. There are simply no excuses for Hawthorn’s forwards this week.
They should all be hitting the scoreboard, and there’s every chance one or two of them kick four goals or more.
Ben Ronke Of The Week
Will Hayes to kick three goals
What should happen
In - B.Macdonald, Dalton, Dear
Out - Butler, Reeves, Chol (all omitted)
B: Hardwick - Barrass - Sicily
HB: Impey - Battle - Weddle
C: Morrison - Day - D’Ambrosio
HF: Moore - Lewis - C.Macdonald
F: Watson - Gunston - Ginnivan
R: Meek - Newcombe - Ward
INT: B.Macdonald - Dear - Mackenzie - Amon - Dalton
Emg: Chol - Butler - Ryan
What will happen:
In - B.Macdonald
Out - Butler (omitted)
B: Hardwick - Barrass - Sicily
HB: Impey - Battle - Weddle
C: Morrison - Day - D’Ambrosio
HF: Moore - Lewis - C.Macdonald
F: Watson - Gunston - Ginnivan
R: Meek - Newcombe - Ward
INT: B.Macdonald - Chol - Mackenzie - Amon - Reeves
Emg: Dear - Nairn - Ryan
In the mix to debut: Cody Anderson
Unavailable: Conor Nash, Noah Mraz, Flynn Perez
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I think Brisbane has actually given us a pretty useful exam.
We’ve been a high-I50, high-clearance side all year and we normally generate plenty of forward pressure. We need to get it forward better and then have enough players I50 to turn entries into goals.
Collingwood showed us earlier in the year that by closing Gunston’s leading lanes and getting across to intercept our I50s, we can end up with lots of I50s without enough clean chances. Brisbane showed another version — we won the ball at stoppage but couldn’t make that last kick I50, and a contest gave them a clean transition to hurt us out the back while we were out of shape.
From D50 if Massimo’s left side is covered, we need to use the fat side more and get genuine pace and skill to break lines on the other wing — Nairn, Bailey Macdonald, Weddle getting involved with quality entries — rather than just kicking it on the head of Chol, Lewis or Gunston.
Surely not every HF needs to push so far up the ground and become a connector. We still need smalls inside 50 when Chol or Lewis bring the ball to ground, and the Moores and Crocs I50 to tackle and make the oppo’s exit dirty. Five tackles in that third quarter against Brisbane was work rate, not game plan.
Saturday night’s our chance to put the pieces back together after a long week.
After the North game, where was one of our very best, we were singing Mabior's praises, during his absence, there was universal agreement as to how valuable he is, and he has one really poor game and he's out of the team! Good thing you're not coaching Brisbane Brad - you'd have dropped half the team following their loss to Carlton. Butler wasn't that bad, he had 14 possessions and should have kicked two goals - had he kicked those goals, he'd be locked in. We need his pace, he is a tagging option, and we need players who have speed and can be used in defensive roles, especially with Nash out of the team. Butler stays and is an ideal match for Josh Daicos if he plays half back or Quaynor. Looking ahead, he could play on Zorko/Wimott, Blakey/Mills and Jordan Clark.
The change that should be made is Bailey Mac for Morrison. Morrison is slow, can only play the one position and at the very best is our 23rd player if we don't pick Reeves. Bailey Mac can be given a lock down role on Schultz or McCreery and in the finals he could be the match up on players such as Papley, McInerney, Lohman, and Chandler for example. We can't keep living in this world where we just go toe to toe with our opponent and don't try and take anything away from them - it's part of the reason why our record against the better sides is not good.
While the two rucks are working in terms of hit outs to advantage and total clearances, they are not working in terms of scoring from clearance, where we rank among the worst teams for scoring differential from clearance.