Selection Dissection: Return of the Hok?
Hok back? Maybe, but a big win against a rejuvinated Melbourne would solidify the return of Hokball, and the timing couldn't be more perfect
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Round 23 — Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Saturday, August 16 — 4:15pm @ MCG
Is “Hokball” back?!
After what we saw last Thursday night against Collingwood, we can only hope so! What a win that was against the Pies, by far our best performance of the season.
With two rounds left, the equations are simple. We beat both Melbourne and Brisbane at the GABBA and we are likely hosting a home final. Lose one and we can still miss the finals with 15 wins! Last season, Geelong and GWS finished 3rd and 4th with 15 wins. What a crazy season.
Enough about finals for now. Our attention turns to another massive August task, with a clash against Melbourne. Those that think this will be an easy win need to temper their expectations. After sacking Simon Goodwin last week, the Demons pushed the in-form Western Bulldogs and could easily have won. Their top end talent is quality and we must come to play from the opening bounce.
The burning question: Does Luke Breust get a farewell game or do we see one of Cam Mackenzie or Sam Butler replace him? This is the only real selection issue for this week.
🛡️ Defence:
It was another defensive masterclass from our back 7 restricting the Magpies to their lowest score of the season and under Craig McRae (46 points). The backline have become a formidable defensive unit. In the last 9 rounds of the season, on average, Hawthorn are conceding the least per points game in the AFL (64 points).
What makes this even more impressive is 5 of those 9 games have come against other top 9 teams. They have only conceded over 75 points twice in that timeframe.
The biggest challenges this week will be the Kozzie Pickett and Jake Melksham match-ups. Hardwick will need to take Pickett, while Melksham will likely play a defensive role on our captain James Sicily.
If we can hold those two to less than 4 goals combined, we should win this game
⚙️ Midfield:
Our midfield were brilliant against Collingwood. Jai Newcombe, who had struggled in previous weeks, played arguably his best game of the season. What made his game even better, he spent a lot of the first quarter off the ground following a big head clash with Jeremy Howe.
The Dees midfield unit are not fast. Their game is built around contested football with the likes of Oliver, Viney, Petrecca and Culley. If our midfield play like they did last week against Collingwood, we should win the midfield battle, and subsequently the game, easily.
Sam Butler and Cam Mackenzie both played well for Box Hill last week in their loss to Footscray and may be considered for a call up as the sub this week, replacing Luke Breust.
🤾♂️ Ruck:
Lloyd Meek bounced back with a bang and played his best game of the season, absolutely smashing Darcy Cameron. He finished with a career high 3 goals.
This week will be his biggest test of the year, against the best ruckman in the game, Max Gawn. When the two met earlier in the season, Gawn got the better of Meek.
⚡ Forwards:
The forward line worked much better against the Pies than it did against the Crows. Sam Mitchell will stick with the same set-up this week. One of Calsher Dear or Mitch Lewis will be subbed out of the game when the time comes. It will likely be Dear, like we have seen the previous two weeks. The theory behind this is likely minutes in the legs for Lewis, which is so important for him to find his feet at the level.
Luke Breust was the sub last week and was ok. Does he get the role again this week in what will likely be his final game? Melbourne’s midfield is a lot better than Collingwood’s, so I would be going with an extra midfielder this week.
🤦 Ben Ronke of the Week
Jacob Van Rooyen to kick 3+ goals.
🔮 Selection Predictions 🔮
What should happen:
In: Mackenzie
Out: Breust (omitted)
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Ward, C.Jiath
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Chol, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, J.Worpel
I/C: C.Dear, J.Scrimshaw, C.Nash, C.Macdonald, C.Mackenzie (sub)
Emg: N.Reeves, L.Breust, S.Butler
What will happen:
In: Mackenzie
Out: Breust (omitted)
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Ward, C.Jiath
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: M.Chol, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, J.Worpel
I/C: C.Dear, J.Scrimshaw, C.Nash, C.Macdonald, C.Mackenzie (sub)
Emg: L.Breust, S.Butler, N.Reeves
Depth: J.Serong, C.Anderson, S.Mitchell, J.Blanck, H.Hustwaite, N.Reeves, W.McCabe, J,Scaife, M.Hill, B.Ryan, J.Uhr-Henry, M.Ramsden, S.Frost
*Images courtesy of afl.com.au and Getty Images
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Average age: 26.22
Average games: 128.78
Outside of the Hawks who do we need to win/lose this weekend amongst the other top 9 teams!?!?