Selection Dissection: Power outage?
Desperate times call for results, and the four points is an absolute must this Saturday afternoon in a wet and windy UTAS outing
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Round 19 — Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide
Saturday, July 19 — 1:20pm @ UTAS Stadium
Tick tock, tick tock!
The clock is ticking Hawks Insiders. After a disappointing loss to the Dockers, we now have six matches to earn a spot in the 2025 finals and it starts this week against Port Adelaide.
The Power have had the wood over us recently. In the last seven clashes, they have won six, including last years Semi-Final by three points. It’s time the Hawks start turning the tides!
This week is going to be a fascinating watch at the selection table, especially with a 5-day break into our Thursday night match against Carlton next week. Sam Mitchell and his match committee have some huge calls to make this week and next. Play the “Best 23” or go with a squad mentality and manage players to prepare for a huge last month where we play three of the top 4, two of them (Adelaide and Brisbane) away.
On a positive note, Box Hill had another big win last week with Mitch Lewis (5 goals), Max Ramsden (4 goals) and Jack Scrimshaw (26 disposals) pushing for selection. Sam Butler, who has missed the last two week’s with leg soreness trained fully today and is also in the frame for selection.
🛡️ Defence:
The backline “mix” has become a big talking point again, with the captain James Sicily front and centre of most of the discourse. His game against the Dockers wasn’t as bad as the week before but he is still making crucial skill errors and lacks his trademark confidence when going for marks. Those calling for him to be dropped need to stop. It won’t happen.
Changkuoth Jiath had a night to forget against the Dockers and will be nervous, especially with Jack Scrimshaw performing well in the VFL and Seamus Mitchell fit after rolling his ankle at training last week. It’s going to be wet and windy in Launceston on Saturday, so a smaller line-up will likely be preferred.
The big question this week is: Can a backline with Barrass, Battle, Sicily and Scrimshaw work?
Against an injury ravaged Port Adelaide whose season is over and a disastrous Carlton next week, it can. However, against Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane? Absolutely not. I would be playing Scrimshaw over Sicily, but the captain won’t be dropped. Good luck Sam Mitchell! I think Tom Barrass may get a rest this week. Mitch Georgiades is the Power’s only dangerous key forward but Josh Battle would be the best match up for him.
The loss of Josh Weddle has also hurt with the lack of line breaking out of the backline. Bailey Macdonald, who was the sub earlier in the season may be worth another try.
⚙️ Midfield:
The midfield matched it with the Dockers for three quarters but got smashed when it mattered in the last quarter. Newcombe, Nash, Worpel and Ward combined for just 13 disposals in the 4th quarter. With a top 4 and finals spot up for the grabs, that’s simply not good enough. Once again it magnifies what we all already know - the midfield, especially without Will Day just isn’t good enough. Time for Sam Mitchell to change things up, get Dylan Moore and Nick Watson into the midfield rotation more!
After being benched for the last 15 minutes against the Saints, Cam Mackenzie had another poor game and was subbed early in the 3rd quarter. He may need to go back to Box Hill for a few weeks and find some much needed form. Sam Butler could return this week.
The good news this week is Jason Horne-Frances has already been ruled out. Zak Butters, who we will be targeting come trade time is the one to stop this week. He’s a top 5 midfielder in the AFL this season and will be the Power’s key to cause an upset. He won’t be tagged, so expect him to have 35+ disposals. Hopefully it won’t matter come the final siren.
🤾♂️ Ruck:
Lloyd Meek deserves huge credit. Over the past month he has taken his game to another level and arguably been our best player. Not only has his tap work been excellent, his follow up work has been brilliant as well. Jordan Sweet is not close to the level of the rucks Meek has beaten in recent weeks, so there’s no excuses for Meek not to have a dominant game this week.
I expect Chol to be managed this week, so Nash will have to play the back-up ruck role.
⚡ Forwards:
Welcome back Calsher Dear. 3 goals against the Dockers was a wonderful return. Unfortunately, he played a lone hand up forward. Gunston and Chol were beaten, and the small forwards struggled to have any impact.
Mitch Lewis has now played three games in the VFL (2 full games) and must be considered. I would be giving Jack Gunston or Mabior Chol a rest this week and bringing in Lewis.
However, like down back, the best forward mix moving forward will be giving the coach big headaches. With the way the Hawk’s play, only 3 of Chol, Gunston, Lewis and Dear can play together. What’s the right combination?
🤦 Ben Ronke of the Week
Ollie Lord to kick four
🔮 Selection Predictions 🔮
What should happen:
In: Lewis, Butler, Scrimshaw, Mitchell
Out: Chol (managed), Barrass (managed), Mackenzie (omitted), Jiath (omitted)
B: B.Hardwick, J.Battle, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Scrimshaw, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Worpel, H.Morrison
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: C.Dear, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash
I/C: C.Macdonald, S.Butler, J.Ward, S.Mitchell, F.Maginness (sub)
Emg: M.Ramsden, S.Frost, H.Hustwaite
What will happen:
In: Lewis, Scrimshaw, Butler
Out: Chol (managed), Jiath (omitted), Mackenzie (omitted)
B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Worpel, H.Morrison
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: C.Dear, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash
I/C: C.Macdonald, S.Butler, J.Ward, J.Scrimshaw, F.Maginness (sub)
Emg: M.Ramsden, S.Frost, H.Hustwaite
Depth: C.Mackenzie, J.Blanck, B.Macdonald, J.Serong, C.Anderson, L.Breust, N.Reeves, W.McCabe, J,Scaife, M.Hill, C.Jiath, B.Ryan, J.Uhr-Henry
*Images courtesy of afl.com.au
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Maginness has to go out too Brad. He's not a best 22 player and is far removed from being a player that can have the sort of impact we want from a sub. Bailey McDonald or Jai Serong should have that role this week.
I may have misheard, but on SEN earlier this week, Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data said that of all midfielders to have played 290 minutes (as a midfielder) this season, Dyan Moore was the 12th ranked midfielder. If that is correct, and given the quality of midfielders it's a remarkable stat, why is Sam so reluctant to use him as a regular midfield rotation and why couldn't Newcombe become a Jordan Dawson type who is also a dangerous forward?
With Port's small forward line, the likely conditions and the tough run of games, including two road trips, really like the idea of Barass being rested this week. Perhaps he gets rested next week with the 5 day break against Carlton?
Yes please to Lewis. He teamed well with Calsher at BH. I really hope his terrible run of injuries has come to an end. Love Butler in the team, but think he should return via BH. If he goes well then bring him back.