Selection Dissection: Biggest game of the year

Beaten by a better side last outing, the Hawks have an immediate opprtunity for redemption

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Round 22 — Hawthorn vs Collingwood

Thursday, August 6 — 7:40pm @ MCG

Big boy month got off to a disappointing start last Friday with a loss to the league leading Adelaide Crows. Brilliant opening and third quarters aside, we lost that game because of a scoreless second quarter and poor last quarter.

Possibly evern more disappointing than losing the game, we also lost our best player Will Day for the season with a foot injury.

We move on to another early final and a prime-time clash against Collingwood on Thursday night in front of what will likely be a huge crowd. This match is absolutely massive. The Hawks and the Pies have both got a lot to play for, but we simply have to win this match. Lose and our season is just about over, with the Brisbane Lions still to come at the GABBA in Round 24.

Sam Mitchell has a lot to consider with selection this week. Who replaces the injured Will Day? Does he play the same forward line again? Who is the best option as the sub? This game will be won or lost at the selection table this week.

If only it was cramp

In positive news (this has been few and far between) Box Hill had a impressive and important win against Southport with a number of players performing well and pressing for a recall to the main team.

🛡️ Defence:

Despite conceding over 100 points against the Crows, I thought the backline played well. The Magpies forward line is very different to Crows’, so this week will be another big challenge for our defenders.

Jamie Elliott will be an All-Australian this season and must be stopped. Last time we played the Pies he got the better of Josh Battle. Lachie Shultz is also having a good season and plays an important role. Dan McStay, Brody Mihocek and Tim Membrey are all decent forwards and need to be respected. There are question marks over Bobby Hill’s fitness and if he doesn’t play, it will be a good result for us.

A special mention to Tom Barrass as well as our strength and conditioning team. This season will be the first time in Barrass’s career (11 seasons) that he will play 20 games in a season. There were plenty of doubts as to if this would ever happen.

Sneaky fit Tom Barrass

⚙️ Midfield:

Will Day is out for the season which is a massive blow for our already struggling midfield. Even with a fit Day in the side, our midfield is our weakest line and must be fixed this off-season. We will be targeting a lot of big name midfielders from opposition teams, let’s hope we can land one or two.

Conor Nash and James Worpel have struggled with consistency. Cam Mackenzie has failed to take the next step. Jai Newcombe has been our best midfielder this season but has failed to have an impact in recent weeks and is showing signs of having carried the midfield this season. He needs help! Time for his teammates to step up in the next few weeks.

Mackenzie should return this week to replace Day. Hopefully he isn’t selected to be the sub but my gut says he will be. Worpel will likely return to the starting side despite being disappointing as the sub last week. Harry Morrison failed to train thjis week and is a real chance to miss. One of Changkuoth Jiath or Jai Serong will replace him if he misses.

Wingman Jai Serong might be just what the Hawks need

Nick Daicos will win the Brownlow medal this season and is by far the Pies best and most important player. Over 30% of Collingwood’s scores go through him. As I said with Dawson last week, he must be stopped! Sam Mitchell doesn’t tag, so expect N.Daicos to have 30+ and kick a couple of goals. Hopefully it won’t be enough to get the Magpies over the line.

🤾‍♂️ Ruck:

Lloyd Meek was beaten by Riley O’Brien last week and once again looked tired. Ned Reeves has been dominating at VFL level but I wouldn’t be bringing him in. This week is another massive test for Meeky, with Darcy Cameron his opponent.

Cameron is a very smart ruckman that works very hard around the ground. Similar to Max Gawn at Melbourne, he often plays a kick behind the ball, especially down back helping out his defenders. Meek must at least beat Cameron in the middle if we are to have a chance of wining this game.

⚡ Forwards:

Unfortunately the gamble to play all of Gunston, Lewis, Chol and Dear didn’t work last week. We saw Dear get subbed early in the third quarter, which was surprising. I would have gone with Lewis. I really hope Dear isn’t dropped this week. Was it entirely the forwards fault? Absolutely not. Especially in the second quarter when our midfield got embarrassed.

I would be surprised if Sam Mitchell didn’t try the same set-up again this week. If not, expect one of the talls to be the sub.

More of this from Calsh please

Collingwood’s backline has struggled the last month, especially their captain Darcy Moore, who has had a lot of goals kicked on him. The biggest reason for this has been the loss of Jeremy Howe. Unfortunately, for us, he will return this week along with their full-back Billy Frampton.

Like his brother Nick, Josh Daicos is a star and the Piessecond best player. Last time we played the Pies, Jack Ginnivan played on him for a lot of the game, had 30+ touches, kicked 3 goals and was our best player. We will need the same again this week!

🤦 Ben Ronke of the Week

Will Hoskin-Elliott to kick 3+ goals.

🔮 Selection Predictions 🔮

What should happen:

In: Mackenzie, Butler, Serong
Out: Day (injured), Morrison (injured), Worpel (omitted)

B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Ward, J.Serong
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: C.Dear, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash

I/C: M.Chol, J.Scrimshaw, C.Mackenzie, S.Butler, C.Macdonald (sub)

Emg: C.Jiath, L.Breust, M.Ramsden

What will happen:

In: Mackenzie, Jiath
Out: Day (injured), Morrison (injured)

B: B.Hardwick, T.Barrass, J.Impey
HB: K.Amon, J.Battle, J.Sicily
C: M. D’Ambrosio, J.Ward, C.Jiath
HF: D.Moore, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
F: C.Dear, J.Gunston, N.Watson
FOLL: L.Meek, J. Newcombe, C.Nash

I/C: M.Chol, J.Scrimshaw, J.Worpel, C.Macdonald, C.Mackenzie (sub)

Emg: J.Serong, S.Butler, L.Breust

Depth: S.Mitchell, J.Blanck, H.Hustwaite, N.Reeves, W.McCabe, J,Scaife, M.Hill, B.Ryan, J.Uhr-Henry, M.Ramsden, S.Frost

*Images courtesy of afl.com.au and Getty Images

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