Selection Dissection: Beating Brad's Blues
The Hawks brace for a Blue bounce back on Thursday night, in another game under lights
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Round 2 — Hawthorn v Carlton
Thursday, March 20, 7.30pm @ Melbourne Cricket Ground
Building Momentum
That’s two in a row! Sometimes, a win doesn’t have to be pretty, and last Friday night’s victory over Essendon proved exactly that. Despite the final margin, the stats tell a different story – we were lucky to win as comfortably as we did.
Now, attention turns to another prime-time showdown. Thursday night footy against Carlton. Anyone expecting an easy game is in for a wake-up call. The Blues will be desperate after a shock loss to Richmond, and with Charlie Curnow set to return, their firepower increases significantly.
Unfortunately, Jack Scrimshaw will miss this match after suffering a concussion following a head clash with teammate Josh Battle (along with a three-game suspension). His absence means a crucial change in defence.
Defenders
The backline stood tall against Essendon, absorbing pressure despite the Bombers dominating clearances and inside 50s. With 10 more forward entries, Essendon had their chances, but our defence held firm.
❓ The Key Question: Who Replaces Scrimshaw?
Sam Frost was the sub last week but struggled when called upon. His foot skills have been a concern over the first two rounds. If selected again, he must start in the 22 or be left out entirely.
A special mention to Jarman Impey, who celebrates game 200 this week – a fantastic achievement for one of our most reliable players!
🚨 Midfield 🚨
No way to sugarcoat it – they got smashed last week.
🚫 -19 clearances
🚫 -23 stoppage clearances
🚫 -24 contested possessions
Those numbers don’t lie. If we see a repeat of that against Carlton, we will lose this match. The Blues’ midfield and forward line – particularly with Curnow back – are stronger than Essendon’s.
🔍 One key battle to watch: Connor Nash v Patrick Cripps. Expect Nash to play a heavy run-with role on the Carlton captain.
Ruck
Lloyd Meek struggled last week, particularly in the second half. Draper and Bryan worked him over, and this week won’t be any easier. Carlton’s Tom De Koning might not be the most physical ruckman, but his athleticism and ability to play as an extra midfielder make him dangerous. Meek needs to lift, while Mabior Chol will continue to provide backup support. However, fatigue was an issue for both ruck options last round.
Forwards
A much-improved effort compared to Round 1, with all forwards playing their role in a 17-goal performance. A big selection call looms – does Jack Gunston return? Last year, Gunston was instrumental in nullifying Jacob Weitering, Carlton’s key defensive pillar. I’m not convinced Chol can perform that role effectively. A return for Gunston makes a lot of sense from a structural standpoint.
Ben Ronke of the Week
This week’s Ben Ronke – the player set to bob up from nowhere and cause havoc – is Jesse Motlop. Expect him to sneak under the radar and slot 3+ goals if Hawthorn doesn’t lock him down early.
Selection Predictions
What should happen:
OUT: Jack Scrimshaw (injured), Sam Frost (omitted)
IN: Jack Gunston, Changkouth Jiath (sub)
B: J. Battle – T. Barrass – J. Impey
HB: J. Weddle – J. Sicily – K. Amon
C: H. Morrison – W. Day – M. D’Ambrosio
HF: D. Moore – B. Hardwick – J. Ginnivan
F: J. Gunston – M. Chol – N. Watson
FOLL: L. Meek – J. Newcombe – C. Nash
I/C: F. Maginness – C. Mackenzie – J. Ward – C. Macdonald (C. Jiath)
EMG: S. Frost – H. Hustwaite – W. McCabe
Depth: J. Serong – M. Ramsden – L. Breust – S. Mitchell – B. Macdonald – N. Reeves
What will happen:
OUT: Jack Scrimshaw (injured)
IN: Changkouth Jiath
B: J. Weddle – T. Barrass – J. Impey
HB: J. Battle – J. Sicily – K. Amon
C: H. Morrison – W. Day – M. D’Ambrosio
HF: C. Macdonald – B. Hardwick – J. Ginnivan
F: D. Moore – M. Chol – N. Watson
FOLL: L. Meek – J. Newcombe – C. Nash
I/C: F. Maginness – C. Jiath – C. Mackenzie – J. Ward (S. Frost)
EMG: J. Gunston – H. Hustwaite – W. McCabe
Depth: J. Serong – M. Ramsden – L. Breust – S. Mitchell – B. Macdonald – N. Reeves
Final Thoughts
This will be a huge test for the Hawks. Carlton is coming in wounded, copping heat from the media, and desperate to respond. Their midfield needs a statement game, and their forward line gets a massive boost with Curnow back.
Hawthorn must win the clearance battle, lock down Weitering, and handle De Koning’s influence around the ground. If they do that, we go 3-0. Bring on Thursday night footy. 🔥
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The major stat from last week was the poor showing of the mids and I am sure that would have been a major part of the review. The question that needed to be answered was just how much the tough match against Sydney took out of the players both in a physical sense and mentally. The first game back after last year's heroics and media expectations and a hot warm humid evening to boot! Apart from the second half of the first quarter, the players were flat. Fumbles missed handballs, dropped marks, players slipping over and turnovers had supporters holding their breath. Those midfield numbers were not because Worps was missing. He is a key player but not the only player. Big Meeks looked to be doing it tough in the second half and he is crucial to the team's centre and stoppage work. On the other hand, Essendon was having its first real hitout and they were displaying more run and carry than us, but luckily for us, they lacked the overall skill to make us pay. Thankfully, on the clutch occasions, we went forward, we scored. Now, it is on to the Blues and every player selected will know what is at stake and what has to be played out. After that heartbreaking loss to Port, Sammy spoke to the team briefly and when he finished the whole team just embraced as one in a photo that shows just why they are heading in the right direction and nothing will stand in their way of getting there. Go Hawks!
I would like to calmly say that I enjoyed reading this article. It turns out the 'what should happen' was right!! :)