Rule 529: Fast Five (Fifth Edition)
The injury (karma) bus established a regular timetable for Rule 529
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State of play
What had been an underlying concern for this season came to pass over the first 14 rounds with the injury (and suspension) karma bus becoming a regular factor impacting on the selection process.
At this point of the season, we have lost 82 games to injury, suspension, management and leave with an average of five players per week unavailable due to injury. This equates to 25.78% of games played in this period.
Of these 82 games, 70 are injury/illness related — but there are some injuries that are more significant than others. This is probably best reflected in the fact Lewis, Day, Dear, Butler and Worpel — representing 41% of the injury count — should not be easily dismissed.
If you then add the absences of Nash (suspension) and Scrimshaw (suspension and injury) to this group, it makes it 46% of total games missed thus far, giving greater credence to the importance of squad depth to path for success this year.
On the run home
For the remaining nine games, the focus between performance and development will undoubtedly be heavily weighted towards the former. That will then have significant implications for the list management and career decisions at the end of the year.
In line with this, and as happens each season, there are players who have been able to cement their place in the team and more importantly their place in the pecking order. There are others who haven’t made the most of their opportunities, and then there are those who just haven’t had the chance to press their claims.
RULE 529 REFERESHER
Just a quick reminder on Rule 529, which is a concept brought to the attention of Hawks Insiders by Head of Football Rob McCartney. The concept being that there were 529 games in the season ie. 23 players across 23 rounds that the club had to allocate across the playing list.
The (nominal) distribution is as follows:
1 Ruck = 9 games
7 forwards = 63
8 midfielders = 72
7 backs = 63
I have listed how the season has played out to date along with the forecast allocation.
(Note: * Players who are currently out of contract at the end of 2025.)
Rucks
Allocated: 14
Played: 16
Run home allocation: 11 (+2)
As was the case at the start of the year, Meek remains the number one option, however possibly learning from last year, he has been rested already this season, and I think may well have another managed week in the run to September.
Injury free, Reeves’ form at Box Hill has been proven to be better than that level, but — as with others — this form line doesn’t necessarily transfer easily to the AFL game plan. Ramsden’s versatility to play both ruck and forward made him an option with Dear’s inability to regain his 2024 form after his pre-season injury.
With his point of difference as a 2nd ruck option, relieving the pressure on Nash and Weddle, Ramsden will probably find himself in direct competition with Dear and Lewis in the remaining games.
🔮 2026 PROJECTION
Meek should be re-signed, hopefully one of those announcements made over the bye week. Reeves may be “trade bait”, however as we learnt a couple of years ago, it is better to have ruck depth than no depth. He is a very viable second option as Ramsden’s game this year has shown him to be a competent forward/2nd ruck option, but he is a little off being the main ruck option. Ramsden could create list spot issues if he passes 10 career games ie. three more as he would have to move from the rookie list to the primary list.
Forwards
Allocated: 98
Played: 98
Run home allocation: 63
Dear aside, this has been the least disrupted group when it comes to injuries. As a result, form has been the main factor determining playing opportunities.
That said, this group may pose the biggest selection challenge across the final nine games. If Dear finds form and Lewis returns, the forward mix becomes even more complex — especially when you consider Gunston’s impressive run since rejoining the side. The “Benjamin Button” of the group has made a compelling case for retention.
In the face of harsh criticism, Chol has been one to cement his spot in the team, both on form and for his strategic role. How the other tall options are incorporated into the team is a conundrum that needs to be solved. I can see Gunston being managed along the way to ensure he is right for September, which then leaves the competition open to Dear and Lewis along with Ramsden, whose point of difference was discussed earlier.
A speculative allocation to McCabe reflects his draft position (1st round) as much as anything. His form at Box Hill is starting to reflect the level of expectation associated with this pick.
Butler’s remake as a midfielder makes him the most interesting player in this group, with his foot speed giving him his advantage relative to other midfield options. It will be a close watch to see if he can permanently bed down a spot. Taking this into account, I think he may need some managed time in the run home given his training load is still strongly managed. He is also out of contract at the end of the year.
Unfortunately, time stands still for no one, so Breust may become the “emergency” option for the forward half. Whereas for Maginness — as the performance standards improve across the playing group — it is a matter of being able to keep pace or be left behind, particularly if the coaches aren’t going to run a pure tagging role.
Meanwhile, the Hardwick forward/back debate will continue to be “a horses for courses” scenario in the run home with Sicily and Impey in the mix, considering the team balance issue discussed later. We do know Barrass has been found out as not being suited to the swingman role.
🔮 2026 PROJECTION
Butler has certainly made the most of his opportunities thus far and would warrant another contract should he maintain this form — he has a point of difference in his new midfield role. As mentioned, it would be a surprise to see Breust continue next year. As for Gunston, while his form warrants another contract, would it be in the best interests of the list development for this to happen? How would that affect opportunities for Dear, Lewis, Chol and McCabe? Scaife is a rookie listed player, so may be offered another year on that basis.
Midfield
Allocated: 112
Played: 104
Run home allocation: 69 (-3)
The midfield has been the part of the team most directly impacted by the injuries and suspension karma bus.
With Day, Nash and Worpel’s absences running into or overlapping each other, it means the Big 4 (along with Newcombe) have only played two quarters together. This initially provided the opportunity for Ward to press his claims for a midfield spot — and he’s grabbed it with both hands. His running power has provided an additional strength to the strong inside work of the Big 4, plus his status as the only left footed inside mid provides a point of difference.
Mackenzie — who had become a fixed magnet in 2024, even prior to his recent injury — hasn’t lived up to this form, so has found himself at Box Hill in recent weeks. The pair has effectively swapped spots from 2023 where Ward had earned the spot over Mackenzie. Providing some breakaway pace and defensive pressure to the midfield strategy, Butler appears to provide the midfield coaches with another tactical option to complement the Big 4.
As to the outside mids, Morrison has been the most consistent throughout the season as he continued with his late run of form from 2024. Macdonald was impacted by an ankle injury, and it appeared that his return from injury wasn’t as smooth as some others. D’Ambrosio has certainly not had the same level of play as last year where he was in AA contention, which could reflect the time the opposition are putting into negating his influence on the team now.
Hustwaite’s form at Box Hill has been as strong as anyone’s, but with four games at AFL level and twice being subbed off at half-time, it indicates that possibly his skillset doesn’t readily complement the team’s playing style and needs.
🔮 2026 PROJECTION
Worpel is the obvious watch as a restricted free agent with an offer on the table, so the issue will be whether he wants to stay or go. Even if Worpel stays, I’d suggest Ward should be offered another contract and it could be another post-bye announcement. D’Ambrosio would be re-contracted, and it may work to the club’s list management advantage that his 2025 form hasn’t been at his 2024 level. Hustwaite, as noted, may decide that for his own career advancement to seek other options
Backs
Allocated: 98
Played: 104
Run home allocation: 64 (+1)
If the midfield was most impacted by injury, the back half has probably generated the most discussion among HIs — whether it was about the roles of Hardwick, Weddle and Sicily, or the impact of Barrass/Battle recruitments on the functioning of the back line. Having said that, it has been the most consistent contributor to the team’s overall performance.
Clearly, Barrass has directly impacted Frost’s opportunities which was not as unexpected as Frost being picked as the sub early in the season. Barrass could well be managed in the run home looking at his history. However, I’m not sure that Frost would be the beneficiary of this opportunity.
Scrimshaw’s injuries — along with his suspension — have made it difficult for him to build any continuity in his game, which seems to have stalled his return to 2024 form. In hindsight, he may be the player most affected by the arrival of Battle.
If Jiath’s role is the specialist sub, it does create some issues. He is best suited to a defensive role, which just adds another defender to the overall team balance. Seamus Mitchell may be given some further opportunities in the run home, but I think he falls into the mix with Jiath and Scrimshaw as to who may become the eighth defender. One of Hardwick, Sicily, Weddle or Impey could be used as a swing option in other parts of the ground to accommodate this strategy.
This creates a “horses for courses” scenario eg. the recent Dogs game where they went small forward without Darcy being available for them. However on their best form, Scrimshaw provides the better all-round game out of the trio.
In terms of opportunity, Serong is the probably the unluckiest player on the list as his form at Box Hill can’t be faulted. Yet when the opportunity arose in the Dogs game with Sicily and Scrimshaw out, Mitchell was the preferred option. His plight — as another defensive option when we have a plethora — has been recognised at Box Hill where he has played on the wing in a few games to expand his options for future selection.
🔮 2026 PROJECTION
As discussed, Frost’s opportunities are limited at AFL level to the point he has played forward at Box Hill. However, given the rookie status of Blanck has to be addressed (he will have to be upgraded to the primary list having been a rookie for 3.5 years and played more than 10 games), along with the development of Mraz, both time and standards may have caught up with Frosty.
Mitchell, on the same basis as Blanck, also comes off the rookie list if he is re-signed. Serong will be the other watch as to whether he wants to seek greater opportunities elsewhere or bide more time on the list. Ryan — whose form at Box Hill was developing nicely before his recent injury — should be offered another contract which may also have implications for Mitchell.
Hill, as a first year Cat. B has done more than enough to be extended, particularly with his change in role to a forward where he has caught the eye as the season has progressed.
List management overview
We are currently on the limit for the total list.
For the National Draft, a team must make three selections for the primary list (which can include any rookie upgrades on to the primary list). Leaving aside any trades, this means that the current list would have to be trimmed by at least three primary list spots.
However, as mentioned previously, both Ramsden and Blanck are under contract for 2026. Mitchell, if re-signed, would have to be upgraded to the primary list as they have surpassed the conditions relating to rookie spots, so this could limit our actual draft picks.
Something to think about - it is worth noting that this draft year isn’t viewed as a strong one, so it may not be the “worst” strategy to upgrade some rookies rather than draft in players on two-year contracts.
Note: We have Carlton’s 1st and 2nd round picks, along with two 4th round picks – Eagles and our own.
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Thanks HI, that's a terrific article and a great deal of work has gone into preparing that piece.
In the absence of good trades put to us for VFL standouts such as Reeves, Serong, Hustwaite, Mitchell, and Ramsden, given the lack of quality in this year's draft, and the age / experience of this group, it seems preferable to retain them, rather than accept picks in the 40-60 range. It is only genuine opportunity that these players are lacking and, as Butler and Ward have shown this season, you just never know when that opportunity will arise.
The interesting watch is James Worpel, who despite having a contract offer, is yet to sign. If we are confident that Will Day's foot injury is not career threatening, this is an area of the ground where we do have some depth - Ward, Mackenzie, Butler, Nash, Newcombe and Day. If Worps was to depart, his departure is something we can manage and would open up one of the three list spots required.
Watching North play yesterday, this weekend's game will be a real challenge. They have a high-quality group of mid-sized players, two good book ends in Comben and Larkey, possibly the All Australian ruckman and two high quality medium forwards in Curtis and Zurhaar. Clarko will no doubt have the Kangas revved up and we'll need to be on our game. It's going to be a very stressful nine weeks!
Last weeks ESPN podcast had an interesting discussion on injuries. Although we have lost relatively few total games compared to others, a very high proportion of them have been to best 22 players (based on rolling -2 mths ranking points). Indeed I think they said we were the 2nd most impacted team overall.