Opposition Analysis - Melbourne
It's a grand old flog(ging)
Fast Facts
Who, when, where: Melbourne, Saturday 4:35pm, MCG
Ladder: 1st (13-3), 129.9%
Last 5: WLWLW
Leading goal-kicker: Bayley Fritsch (31)
Most disposals: Clayton Oliver (464)
Last time we met: Melb def Haw by 50 points (Rd 5, 2021)
Dear readers,
I feel the need to apologise for my piece last week. If you’re like me, it would have left you feeling confident that we could/would beat Freo, even to the point of tipping us.
The resultant disappointment came not from the loss, but from the genuine belief we could win.
Please rest assured that the following article will absolutely not inspire the same levels of confidence in our upcoming clash with the ladder leaders.
Sincerely,
Simon
How are they travelling?
You can’t do much better than first. The Dees are not just banking wins, they’ve beaten all their nearest challengers along the way. The Bulldogs, Brisbane, Port, Geelong … Melbourne has beaten the lot of them. In fact, they’ve beaten six of the other seven sides in the eight, and the only reason they haven’t beaten West Coast yet is that they haven’t played them.
Sure, they have lost two of their last four, but that appears to be more of a slip-up than a sign of collapse. If you look back over the years, it’s not uncommon for the eventual premier to lose a couple of games around this time of year.
Who’s missing?
Adam Tomlinson (ACL) is missing from the backline, and Nathan Jones (calf) is still a week or two away. Other than that, the Dees will be fit, firing, and well-rested after a nine-day break.
Who can hurt us?
Where do you even begin? It’s no surprise Melbourne is where they are. They have an excellent team, well balanced and stacked with talent.
Let’s start with the midfield, where they have Max Gawn’s ruckwork and contested marking, Ed Langdon’s outside run, Clayton Oliver’s work in and under, and Christian Petracca’s everything.
Then there’s Tom McDonald and Ben Brown up forward, with Bayley Fritsch and Kozzy Pickett at their feet. It’s not the most potent forward line in the league on paper, but it’s good enough to cash in on a midfield that has created the third-most inside 50s this season.
But what really sets the Dees apart is the backline. No one has conceded fewer points than the Demons in 2021. Jake Lever and Steven May will intercept any and every high ball that comes their way, and release Christian Salem to distribute. They’ve conceded more than 11 goals just once this year.
What can we exploit?
As Hawks Insiders’ Darren Levin pointed out this week, our best chance might lie with Melbourne’s notorious ability to choke. You don’t have to know too many Melbourne fans to know how many times they’ve been burnt over the years.
Consider Melbourne’s defeats this season: GWS, Collingwood, and Adelaide. All three outside the eight, two in the bottom four. You don’t necessarily have to be the best to beat them. It’s the “gimme” games they seem to switch off for.
But in all seriousness, like any team, the Demons are susceptible to an opposition that “comes to play”. Their two losses in the last month were to teams with a point to prove: GWS needed to respond after losing to us; Collingwood needed to respond after losing a coach.
This week is no different. We were supremely disappointing in a winnable match against Freo, and we should be breathing fire on Saturday. If we hit Melbourne with the sort of intensity we showed against Sydney and GWS, we can give them a shake.
Venue
The MCG is home for both sides. The crowd will be pro-Melbourne, as a team sitting atop the ladder will naturally have more fans attend than a team sitting 17th.
Final thought
Melbourne’s biggest-ever winning margin is 141 points.
Hawthorn’s biggest-ever losing margin is 141 points.
Yes, it was the same game, and yes, both records are in jeopardy.