Opposition Analysis - Brisbane
Simon Morawetz likes the Lions this week. That’s good news for the Hawks.
Fast Facts
Who, when, where: Brisbane, Sunday 2:10pm
UTAS Stadium
Ladder: 5th (12-6), 127.3%
Last 5: WLLWW
Leading goal-kicker: Charlie Cameron (35)
Most disposals: Jarryd Lyons (505)
Last time we met: Haw def Bris by 28 points (Rd 1, 2020)
Look at that “last time we met” section. What a day that was. At half time of that game, Gillon McLachlan held a conference announcing the suspension of the season. How much have we endured since then!
Hawthorn and Brisbane have gone on vastly different journeys since that point, the Hawks having won eight games in that time to the Lions’ 27.
It’s hard to see the Hawks adding to that tally this week. Brisbane are a complete side, gearing up for a finals campaign. We might give them a shake, but they’ll be professional enough to see it through.
How are they travelling?
The Lions have wobbled in the last three weeks. They lost to St Kilda and Richmond, and then were 27 points down against the Suns at half time.
However, they seemed to snap out of their slump after the main break last week, booting 13 goals to one. It’s also worth noting that Brisbane had won 10 of 11 before the Saints loss. They’re one win outside the top four, so they’re going well enough.
Who’s missing?
Eric Hipwood and Cam Rayner (ACLs) are missing from the forwardline, and Darcy Gardiner (shoulder) and Marcus Adams (foot) are missing at the other end.
Grant Birchall is still yet to play a game against Hawthorn. He is available this week, or is it the week the veteran will be “managed”?
Who can hurt us?
Brisbane’s midfield crop of Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage, and Dayne Zorko is top shelf. Throw in pinch-hitters like Mitch Robinson, Zac Bailey, Linc McCarthy, and Deven Robertson, plus the returning Jarrod Berry, and you’ve got as deep an engine room as any going around. It’s little wonder the Lions are in the top three for clearances, contested possessions, and inside 50s.
Once they get it inside 50, there’s only more danger. The Lions are the only team in the league with five players who have kicked 20+ goals this season (albeit one of those is Hipwood). It will be six if Daniel McStay kicks three against us. Zorko and McCluggage hit the board from midfield, too. They just have so many avenues to goal, it’s hard to keep them down.
Finally, this section would not be complete without mentioning Harris Andrews, probably the best defender in the league. He rarely gets beaten and rarely makes a bad decision. He will towel up a Jacob Koschitzke or a Mitch Lewis. Better to just keep the ball where he isn’t.
What can we exploit?
The Lions are a very good team, and so far this season have only lost to other very good teams: four teams in the eight, plus Richmond and St Kilda. However, I don’t believe you have to be a league-best team to beat Brisbane.
For mine, the Saints set the blueprint for how we can beat the Lions back in Round 17. They didn’t blow them out of the water with superhuman play, they just controlled the ball and didn’t let the Lions press. They nearly went +100 for uncontested ball!
Using this strategy, the Saints took their time and moved the ball methodically up the wing, before launching the ball to the hot spot. We might have to adapt that last part – we don’t exactly have Max King, Tim Membrey and Rowan Marshall waiting to clunk one – but the principle remains the same.
The Suns opted for a similar tactic on the weekend. It was stark that, when they opened up a big lead in the second quarter, they barely touched the ball in the centre square. The Lions dominated that area of the ground – but only that area. The Suns were able to regain possession and work the ball patiently up the wings. The game turned in the third quarter when the Suns couldn’t get themselves time in possession, and the Lions were able to force turnovers.
This is where Alastair Clarkson’s belief in only picking players with kicking skills (and also Sam Frost) could come into its own. It’s the sort of game where simply hitting your targets can be the avenue to victory.
Venue
Brisbane beat us in Launceston in their last two visits, back in 2019 and 2018, so I doubt our Tassie “Fortress” will fill them with too much dread.
That said, the Lions are 7-1 at the Gabba and 5-5 away from it, which is not immaterial.
Final thought
It’d be nice if Dermie hadn’t lit a fire under our next opposition by declaring they can’t win the flag.