How ‘elite’ is Hawthorn’s list?
We spoke to Champion Data to find out
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Champion Data’s list of ‘elite’ players came out this week, and as usual it caused a huge stir among the AFL footy media.
That’s primarily due to some big name omissions (Ollie Wines, Max Gawn, Sam Walsh, and Harry McKay); some “eyebrow raising” inclusions (Jeremy Finlayson, Aaron Hall and our own Dylan Moore and Jack Scrimshaw); and a general misunderstanding of the statistical model that informs these selections.
The good news for Hawthorn is we have four players in the elite category:
Jack Scrimshaw (general defender);
Luke Breust (general forward);
Dylan Moore (general forward); and
Chad Wingard (mid-forward)
And a further seven with an above average rating:
Blake Hardwick (general defender);
Jarman Impey (general defender);
Changkuoth Jiath (general defender);
Sam Frost (key defender);
Tom Mitchell (midfielder);
Daniel Howe (wing); and
Tom Phillips (wing).
On paper that looks pretty exciting, especially when you compare that to the number of elite players in last year’s top four:
Melbourne (three);
Port Adelaide (six);
Geelong (three);
and Brisbane (five).
But how much does this correlate to actual list health? To find out we spoke to Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data, who says Hawks fans have a reason to be optimistic.
What makes a player ‘elite’?
Before we dive in, it’s worth understanding the framework that informs the list. It’s not as simple as using your eye and thinking about who you’d pick in a schoolyard game of footy, as Kane Cornes suggested on SEN this week. It’s equally not a bunch of “blokes sitting ‘round over a coffee saying, ‘Oh, Tom Mitchell is above average, let’s put him in that category,’” Daniel says.
Developed a decade ago by renowned statistician Dr Karl Jackson, Champion Data’s AFL Player Ratings - from which the elite list is generated - takes into account three key areas of the game:
How you win the ball;
Where on the ground you win the ball; and
What you do with the ball.
It’s a framework that obviously benefits more attacking players, which explains the dearth of lock-down defenders at the expense of more damaging defenders, who can intercept, use the footy well, and launch attacks. Players like Adam Saad, Zac Williams, Aaron Hall, and Jack Scrimshaw outperform more negating defenders in a framework like this.
While Daniel concedes the list isn’t “bulletproof”, he says it’s the best measure we currently have to assess how players impact a game across all lines - general forward, general defender, key forward, key defender, midfield, midfield-forward, wing and ruck. To qualify, players must have played a minimum of 10 games in the previous season.
“Players that win the ball in a contested situation, in dangerous areas on the ground, and then use the ball well are going to be highly rated in this system,” he explains, “as opposed to players who win the ball on the outside, not really in dangerous positions, or don’t use the footy well - they get critiqued quite harshly in this system.”
‘Finals and top six should be on the cards’
The good news for Hawthorn is Champion Data’s ratings system is generally a good indication of list health. Having four elite players, plus a further seven above average, stacks up pretty well against some of the better sides in the competition.
The bad news is we have elite talent in the wrong areas. Or more accurately - we don’t have enough above average midfield talent to complement our elite players across the forward and back lines. But if our current crop of midfield talent elevates itself - including the current crop of top tier draftees - there’s every chance we’ll play finals in a couple years.
“I don’t think things are as far off as perhaps what some in the industry believe,” Daniel suggests. “I keep coming back to the midfield discussion, the ability to find a couple midfielders and hopefully the draftees that you’ve just selected (Josh Ward, Connor MacDonald, Sam Butler and Ned Long) might be able to help in that situation. But I think there’s enough there to suggest that 2024, which is only two years away, that finals and top six should be on the cards. But that will only happen if the midfield elevates itself.”
Dylan Moore loves a goal - but is he elite?
Along with Jeremy Finlayson, Adam Saad and Aaron Hall, Moore was one of the players singled out by Cornes as not being sufficiently elite enough to fall within his scientifically proven “would you pick them in a schoolyard game of footy?” framework.
He described Moore’s 1.3 goals, 15 possessions and 2.9 tackles a game as “solid” but not elite numbers, saying “there are so many more general forwards that I’d have as elite in front of Dylan Moore” on SEN breakfast radio this week.
It definitely got Hawks supporters up and about, including HI contributor ‘Angry Brad’ Klibansky, who pointed to Moore’s stats in the back half of the 2021 season.
But Cornes was not convinced, comparing Moore’s goal haul to retiring champion Eddie Betts.
While Daniel from Champion Data said he didn’t personally agree with all the selections, the rankings are not based on opinion but data. He said if you watched Moore over the course of year with that criteria in mind, you’d understand why he was rated so highly.
“He’s a star. He ticks every box you’re after for that small forward role. He’s accurate in front of goal and accuracy plays a huge in these ratings. That’s why Jeremy Finlayson is rated elite because his accuracy is through the roof, and that’s why Mason Cox was rated elite a couple years ago. Whether accuracy is rated too highly is up for debate, but accuracy decides so many games. But Dylan Moore’s year, from probably round eight or nine onwards, was exceptional.”
Oh, and if you’re reading this Kane, I’d pick him over Tom Papley in a game of schoolyard footy any day of the week.
Over the weekend we’ll be publishing the full interview with Champion Data, in which we discuss the framework in further detail, the Hawthorn players set to elevate themselves next year, and the rankings of past Hawthorn champions including Cyril Rioli. Subscribe now for $5 a month to access our members’ only content.
This sort of stuff always creates debate. Moore is on the edge of elite but he is there. Likely he should be in AA consideration this year - at least for the squad. The problem is the rankings are necessarily incomplete. Was Cyril ever consistently rated elite by CD? I cannot remember but I have a feeling he was not in the mix. Would you pick Moore over Cyril?
good little interview! was curious about how their ratings worked.