Banking wins but work to be done
A huge opening term against the Blues followed by three quarters of meh. So what does it mean? We unpack Thursday night's game in full.
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R20: HAWTHORN 13.7 (85), BLUES 6.7 (61)
We have had a few days to digest Thursday night’s win and there still seems to be a common separation among fans on how to classify this performance.
On one hand, a win is a win - and that is all we need to keep doing to make finals. And six wins in seven is a testament to this.
On the other hand, after a blistering opening term that saw us kick six goals to one, to only win the game against a diabolical Carlton side seems a wasted opportunity to boost our percentage.
This is even moreso the case looking at some of the teams around us and results over the weekend with the Dogs, Giants, Suns, Dockers, Cats and Crows all winning by between seven and 16 goal margins.
Added to this is the fact that it is round 20. This is the time that you want to be getting your full team on the park with injured players back (tick Will Day, tick Mitch Lewis, tick Jack Scrimshaw, tick Calsher Dear). But at the same time you want to start playing your best football. And this was far from our best.
The real test is to come - Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane to come. Win three of these and finals is a lock - top-four a chance.
So let’s unpack the game and then be ready to roll on to the Crows at Adelaide Oval this Friday night.
🕵🏻♂️ Ash shares his observations
It was a divided Hawthorn nation that went home after a reasonably flat, and uninspiring MCG homecoming against the Blues. On the one hand, the Hawks took care of business. After quarter-time, it was clear that the four points were already in the bag, and the rest of the game was the opportunity to cruise around, try some things, and save petrol tickets for the demanding stretch to come. The other school of thought was that the opportunity to accrue more percentage and really put a team to the sword was missed.
Then came Friday night as the Western Bulldogs destroyed Essendon. On Saturday, out were Gold Coast (over Brisbane!), Fremantle, Geelong, and Point Adelaide, all destroyed lesser opponents in a manner that Hawthorn’s win looked limp in comparison. So where are the Hawks really at? We will find out in the next 12 days.
This iteration of Sam Mitchell is fun to observe. His takedown of the sub rule and other aspects of the game on AFL 360 last week was strong. His post-game observation to the media that they don’t believe the Hawks will play finals were, by Mitch’s standards, fighting words. Although like any post-match media conference, were the media and therefore the fans his intended audience, or was it the players?
If the Hawks are going to overcome Adelaide, it is the backline that will likely get the, there, and based on Thursday night, they are in good fettle. Tom Barrass played his best game for the Hawks, James Sicily was back to being James Sicily rather than the pale imitation we have seen for much of the season, while his disposal was iffy, the aerial Jack Scrimshaw of 2024 returned. Hawthorn’s back six is as settled and in-form as it has been all year and will need to be.
The midfield numbers weren’t great, but Carlton’s only strength these days is clearances and stoppages. And with Will Day on managed minutes and Jai Newcombe missing after half-time, that should come as no surprise. But there will need to be a lift from now.
In his return game, Day looked good and he wasn’t held back. We saw all that we needed - toughness in the clinch, tackling, burst from contest, game smarts and even a speccie. He’ll be better off running and will enjoy the return to Adelaide Oval on Friday where - and this is a surprising stat - he has only played seven games there - not many for someone in his sixth season.
Calsher Dear is a star. We knew this. But the bigger the stage, the better he plays. There are a few moving parts in the Hawthorn forward line - I suspect he is not one of them.
Everyone has their opinion about how the Hawk forward line should shake up for the rest of the season. Mine is that Jack Gunston will be managed either against Adelaide or Collingwood and Mabior Chol will be back for one or both. But the coach has always been clear that he picks the team that he believes gives Hawthorn the tactical edge over the opposition. I don’t think he ever has a best 23 on the whiteboard.
Good to see that even Hawks fans stopped to applaud Sam Docherty after his goal on Thursday night. Good sports are the Hawks - Dusty in his 300th and Docherty in his retirement game. Let ‘em have their time to shine.
Yet another Hawthorn win masterminded in part by ex-Blues Kade Simpson and Adrian Hickmott. As the Blues drastically recast their football department, it would not surprise if one or both are back at Carlton next year. It would be tough to lose either but the upbeat Hickmott especially, offers the beleaguered Blues just what they need.
🧐 Things we like to see #1: Air Calsh (I)
In the words of NBA legend Hakeem Olajuwon from the 1994 ‘I'd Like to See That’ television commercial…
“These guys can catch a ball from 12 feet in the air…. I’d like to see that.”
Well Hakeem, welcome to Air Calsh. Our young up-and-coming superstar took to the skies on Thursday night, and this absolutely hanger over Sam Docherty will be a contender for Mark of the Year. Even Docherty thanked Dear at half time for getting him onto the highlights reel in his last game of AFL football. Outstanding grab.
🧐 Things we like to see #2: Air Day
A wonderful return for Day at the MCG - getting through a full game on managed minutes. And while nearly all of his touches were cheered on by Hawk fans throughout the night, the biggest noise was reserved for when he flew high over Lachie Fogarty to pull in a screamer. Unfortunately for Day it was probably only the second or third best grab of the evening, but his confidence to attack the footy warmed the hearts of the brown and gold faithful around the country.
🧐 Things we like to see #3: Air Calsh (II)
Not content with the best grab of the night in the opening term, Dear decided to double up in the second quarter. Seconds after Will Day pulled in the above screamer, Dear turned it up with this one-handed special of his own. the mini grin after it was the icing on the cake.
⭐️ Best on ground: Tom Barrass
Was an absolute sight to behold on the MCG against the Blues, and this was the exact sort of game both Barrass and Josh Battle were recruited for. Get them each to take on a key power forward to allow James Sicily and Scrimshaw to intercept as floaters at will. And that’s exactly what happened. Barrass had 13 touches at 100% disposal efficiency and took seven marks, to go with a game high nine spoils. He also recorded eight intercept possessions (second highest on ground) and was the absolute rock in an outstanding team defence performance.
💫 Rising star: Calsher Dear
Wow. Wow. Wow. See the ‘things we like to see’ section above. What an incredible vertical leap, matched only by a beautifully safe pair of hands. Not only did Calsh say hello to those fans up in the nosebleed section, but he kicked a couple of goals and was a constant presence as a marking target up forward. Still only 19 - he turns 20 on August 4, Dear could just be the brightest of the rising stars on our list. Excitement machine.
👼 Unsung hero: James Sicily
That’s two weeks in a row proving his doubters wrong - this has been the James Sicily we have come to know and deeply adore over the past few years. Captain. Leader. And organiser of our defence. Not only did he record 25 touches at 88% efficiency, but pulled in 11 marks, had six spoils and registered an enormous 14 intercept possessions - six more than anyone else on the ground. If we are to make a run deep into September, this is the James Sicily that needs to take the field each week.
🤯 Under pressure: The selectors
Mabior Chol. The big man is likely to be available to play against the Crows in a huge game in Adelaide, but how on earth does he fit into the team? Can you play four talls in your forward line and through your bench? If the answer is no and Chol is to come in, does he replace Mitch Lewis, Calsher Dear or Jack Gunston? A very very hard decision - so the pressure will be well and truly on the selectors this week.
🎤 Sammy said what!?
“We knew that Carlton are a fast starting team - they usually come out of the starting blocks pretty hard, so it was a bit of a focus to make sure we were on early.”
“I was pleased that we were able to respond early and they wouldn’t go away unfortunately, but we did what we needed to do.”
“We take the win - we knew that we are going to have to keep winning - we have won six of our last seven, and a lot of them have had that feel about it.”
“Maybe we could have really put a side away and we haven’t been able to do that, but we did what was required when it really mattered.”
“We were reasonably happy with the way the scoreboard ticked over - we gave up a few easy goals and got a little bit undisciplined with some free kick stuff.”
“There are some aspects of the game that we need to work on but we take the four points.”
🗣️ Final word …
“It was good - good to walk away with the four points - it was a bit of a grind but we got it done so we are all happy.”
“I don’t really have much for you - I just sort of fly for it, put my hands up there and hopefully it sticks, which luckily they did a little bit tonight so hopefully it stays the same.”
“We all love the big games, pressure and they (Adelaide) are a pretty good side. We usually match up pretty well against them so am sure it will be a good game and hopefully we can get the win.”
⏭️ Next Week
A HUGE game this week as we head to Adelaide for some Friday night footy in a season defining match up.
The winner is a genuine contender to take up a top 4 spot, while the loser will be back to battling for a spot in the top 8.
The Crows are one of the form teams in the competition so we will need to put in a solid four-quarter performance, but this team loves to travel and will hopefully be up to the challenge.
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What was learnt:
1. A time management game means that you want to shop early was once said – No doubt there was a level of “frustration” with the way the game played out, but when you reflect on the TOG%, it is evident that this was a game structured considering the run home. With only Hardwick playing more than 90% (91%) whereas it is not unusual to have 6-8 players above 90%, usually defenders, it is apparent that Mitchell and Burge were looking at the overall management of the playing group. As acknowledged by Mitchell, Newcombe being subbed was an obvious example of this. Furthermore, with Day being on managed minutes, it provided another factor in this strategy. It is worth remembering that earlier in the year, many were concerned with the slow starts from the team, so jumping out of the gates in this situation worked to our longer term purposes. BTW For those who were concerned about the “emotion” spurring on Carlton, I’d suggest that the emotion has more impact in ensuring that the team isn’t soundly, so at least they can carry the player off with some respect rather than a 10+ goal loss.
2. Day’s return demonstrated he hadn’t lost his attack on the ball, but lacked some touch with his disposals – There was no question that Day hadn’t lost his competitive streak through his lengthy break, although having been engaged in match sim at training, it was evident that Day still needed to adjust the competitive nature of the game with his disposals as he missed some targets early and/or put his teammates into poor situations. Match sim doesn’t go at 100% nor do they tackle to “hurt”. A key skill of a great player is their capacity to make good players better with the way they set up their teammates when they give them the ball. Day is still yet to play 80 games, so this is still a watching brief on his development.
3. The left footers were lackadaisical, ambitious or irresponsible by foot – As three players who are “lauded” for their foot skills, Amon, Scrimshaw and D’Ambrosio would like to have a couple of their kicks back as they missed targets by some distance at various stages which then caught us out on the turnover. It is worth noting that such errors have been the ones Sicily has been criticised for in his recent run of alleged poor form. For Amon, this has become a trend in recent weeks, when he has been as safe as anyone, whereas one of Scrimshaw’s kicks brought back memories of the one he copped a serve at ¼ time break last year. As for D’Ambrosio, his more egregious fault was missing Lewis on a long lead from the goal square in the first quarter after Ginnivan had run interference on Weitering and Lewis was happy to give him a serve, given he kicked it to a contest that Weitering was able to kill. Like Mackenzie’s search for perfection rather than practical, when D’Ambrosio has the ball outside 50 for the entry from a mark/free, he too seeks out the perfect.
4. The 2nd ruck option around the ground does create issues for us – With the Blues having the luxury of playing Pittonet and TDK, it meant that we would always be under the pump when Meek went off the ball and even when Pittonet was subbed out with McKay taking up this role. In the 3rd quarter, we gave up another goal from a throw-in when Nash had to take the ruck role. Lewis was able to provide coverage in the forward 50, however when the opposition has a genuine 2nd alternative e.g. Thilthorpe, Darcy, McInerney/Fort, then we are at a disadvantage as it also messes with our midfield mix taking Nash out of the contest on the ground. On this broader issue, Meek was dominant in the tap work, however the mids, particularly in the centre square weren’t always clean with their first touch.
5. Hardwick going back has allowed Impey to move forward – With Hardwick moving back to his defensive role, it has released Impey on two aspects of his game. Firstly, Impey has been able to resume to his overlap running role from half back, having played to the lockdown role when Hardwick was playing as a forward. Secondly, with the sub being a defensive player, this has meant a defender going forward with either mid or forward being subbed off, with Impey becoming the preferred option in recent weeks.
Observations:
• After a slow couple of weeks, C. Macdonald’s first half looked to have him back closer to his 2024 form. As he acknowledged in his post-match chat with Ash, the ankle injury earlier in the year did disrupt his season. Finally seeing him in for some CBAs would have pleased a number of HIs.
• If B. Macdonald wants to make the sub role his own, then he needs to make sure that he doesn’t have regular brain fades such running too far. Whilst not a coach killer, it may open the door for others who aspire for the sub role as a way back into the team e.g. Jiath, Mackenzie.
• Dear’s goal kicking is still a work in progress as his misses can come from excellent opportunities e.g. last quarter this week. Lewis from limited chances looks to have a better technique at this time.
• Carlton looked to play the tall wingers as a strategy with Acres (193cm) and Docherty (187cm) starting there – D’Ambrosio 178cm/Morrison 184cm.
• Ward imposed himself on the contest, particularly in the first half, continuing to frank his form this year. It is notable that in the past couple of games he hasn’t had the “poor” kick which was part of his game earlier in the year.
• Barrass played his best game for the year, and his worth will certainly be seen in the coming weeks.
• Each quarter we jumped out of the blocks which worked to the advantage of players’ time management. Having said that, in the first and second quarters, we wasted some chances late in each.
• Nash played another strong game on Cripps not allowing him to impose himself on contests.
• Scrimshaw’s contested marking was a return to his strengths.
• 8.5 from 16 set shots could’ve been better when you think about a couple that were missed from good looks. (5.1 from 8 shots in general play – 3 from the goal square.)
• 0 disposals quarters – Morrison (3rd).
• Tackle count by quarter – 19/10; 17/17; 12/18; 19/15. Shopped early and late to seal the deal.
• I50 count by quarter – 11/11; 13/10; 10/15; 10/9.
• TOG % - Bottom 5 (leaving out subs): Day 69%, D’Ambrosio 72%, Lewis 76%; Nash 77%, C. Macdonald 78% (Hardwick 91% highest.)
• Kicking efficiency (DE): Newcombe 100% (100); Barrass 100% (100); B.Macdonald100% (100); Battle 100% (93); D’Ambrosio 92% (86); Hardwick 87% (90).
Meek 16% (46); C. Macdonald 43% (63); Scrimshaw 56% (73); Dear 57% (55); Watson 57% (69).
Starting 4: (CBA/CC)
1st Qrt: Newcombe (12/1) Day (16/1) Ward (10/1)
2nd Qrt: Newcombe Nash Worpel (14/0)
3rd Qrt: Newcombe Day Ward
4th Qrt: Day Ward Nash
Meek 23/3 C. Macdonald 3/1 Moore 3/0 Watson 3/0 Dear 2/0
(Morrison 0/1)
With the Big 4 back together, for the first time since Opening Round (and only for a half in that game), it is worth noting that Ward started in the CBA at the start of the game and again after half-time. As noted earlier, CMac going into the CBA was something that many HIs have been looking forward to for a couple of seasons.
Issue for the (coming) weeks:
No doubt the issue that will dominate discussion is the make up of the forward six as to which combination of talls will be part of it, injuries aside. This means what will be the “criteria” applied to work out the best mix with the following having to be taken into consideration (in no order):
• Contested marking IF50
• Contested marking outside F50
• Ability to crash packs
• Leading forward work as a marking target and/or to create space
• Field kicking
• Goal kicking accuracy.
• 2nd ruck option
• Ruck option if Meek was to be injured in game
• Ability to apply forward pressure.
I thought it was one of those games where, had we been in Collingwood's current position, we could afford to coast after quarter time which we did. Unfortunately, we have the hardest run home of any team fighting for a spot in the 8. Therefore, percentage was important, and we wasted that opportunity. Subsequent results proved that to be the case. I still think a win over Melbourne + one of the other 3 should be enough to play finals. But getting that second win is going to be really tough. If you were betting on it, Hawthorn would be starting as a relative outsider in all 3 games. There's a big risk we could miss out.