A Failed Test in the West
A huge game against Fremantle on their home turf, and the Hawks came up short
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R16: HAWTHORN 9.10 (64), DOCKERS 12.5 (77)
What a disappointment.
This game meant so so much.
It meant showing that we are up for a fight against another finals-bound team. It meant showing that we are ready to launch a bid to finish the season in a top-four position. It meant putting a shocking record of late against the Dockers to bed.
For three quarters we looked pretty good as well - despite slow starts in each of the opening and third terms.
But ultimately, three quarters of football will not get the job done, and in the last we capitulated.
Are we just not there yet? Do we have an unhealthy reliance on key players that are unavailable to lift us (think Will Day, Josh Weddle, and even Mitch Lewis)? Have we unrealistically allowed ourselves to drift into contender status - when we are still building the blueprint for flag number 14?
Whatever your view, the trip to Perth has left many feeling flat. So what happened?
🕵🏻♂️ Prinsy shares his observations
It’s hard to seperate the final quarter from the remainder of the game, but it felt like a game within a game, and the Hawks were comprehensively beaten in that one.
Fremantle was always going to come out firing after last week’s performance, but Hawthorn’s inability to assert scoreboard pressure early in quarters is becoming a serious concern.
What the Hawks have done well is weather opposition pressure and respond, and they did this in the first and third quarters. It really felt like they had done the hard work and put themselves in a position to win heading into the last.
That clearly didn’t happen. Fremantle’s pressure was off the charts and the Hawks couldn’t handle the heat. Long panic kicks to a well set up defence is a recipe for disaster.
Sam Mitchell doesn’t tag and a large part of me appreciates his confidence in his midfield unit, but even with a fit Day in this side it’s a midfield that lacks one more A-grader. There’s talk of Butters and others, but Harley Reid is the difference maker that this team is crying out for.
Our captain is severely out of form. People will speak to the kick in the first quarter, but it’s the lack in confidence in going for his marks that is more concerning. James Sicily has the look of a man who doesn’t want to make a mistake but feels he’s going to whenever he gets near it. 2024 Sicily would be brilliant right about now.
Outside of Sicily, the Hawks backline looked mostly good for the majority. Blake Hardwick, Josh Battle and Tom Barrass all played their roles, while Jarman Impey and Karl Amon gave us great run off half back. I’m worried about Changkuoth Jiath’s place in the team, it screams Jack Scrimshaw return to me.
This was a game where players produced strong periods of football with no Hawk really dominating for four quarters. Josh Ward was brilliant early, as was Massimo D’Ambrosio, but both were quiet after that. Lloyd Meek and Harry Morrison were incredible in the first half but ran out of juice to varying extents in the second.
It was great to see Calsher Dear back in the fold and looking fit and confident in his body. He said as much in a chat to me post the Box Hill win last Sunday. He will be better for the run, but also poses some serious forward half selection questions in coming weeks.
The Hawks had enough shots at goal to win the match, but as we’ve establish through Mick Cowan’s piece earlier in the year, bad kicking is bad football. The Dockers were ruthless in front of goal and it kept them in the game through the first three quarters.
Max Ramsden and Mitch Lewis both had massive days out at Box Hill City Oval on Saturday, with Ramsden responding to his dropping by kicking four goals from 16 disposals, 10 marks and eight hit outs while Lewis mounted a strong case to play next week with five goals from 13 disposals and eight marks. Selection headaches incoming.
It doesn’t matter for his long term outcome, but Cam Mackenzie’s mid season form has been a disappointment. I’m a massive fan of his skill set but he needs to get more of the ball and make much quicker and smarter decisions if he wants to stay in the team. We mentioned on the pod, he needs to stop trying to be perfect every time he gets the ball.
It’s a tough loss to swallow but it’s not the end of the world. It has shown that the Hawks aren’t the finished product and that there’s a bit of work to be done to get this list to a point where it becomes a legitimate contender.
🧐 Things we like to see #1: Front and Square
Connor Macdonald ended up with two (credited with the one) similar goals, showing how cunning he is around the feet of our big men with some crumbing brilliance. This one was as textbook as she gets - waiting down front and centre as the ball spilled from a big pack - Macdonald swooped, controlled it and cleverly tunnelled the ball along the ground through the big sticks. Class.
🧐 Things we like to see #2: Wiz doing Wiz things
Is there a better snap on the run at goal in our team at the moment that Nick Watson? It is a point of skill execution that we have seen approximately 550 times from Luke Breust but the baton for the best in the squad has officially been passed on. Excellent pick up, control, balance and finish - and a more than adequate celebration as well. Could watch the Wiz dob these all day.
⭐️ Best on ground: Karl Amon
Apologies in advance to Jack Ginnivan who we thought put in an outstanding shift over in the West, but reflection has given the nod to Amon for another clinical performance off half back. Amon racked up 30 disposals, nine marks and 693 metres gained (most on the ground by over 100 metres), and controlled play out of our backline. Also registered seven intercept possessions, eight rebounds from defensive 50 and five inside 50’s. More votes in the PCM where we continue to predict that he is sitting top-three.
💫 Rising star: Calsher Dear
It was a welcome return for Casher who showed plenty - perhaps more than any of our other big targets up forward. He finished the game with three official goals (though one should be credited to Connor Macdonald), three marks and five score involvements. But it was the way he contested and crashed packs that was most heartening - reminding us of the talent he is. Must play every game for the rest of the season.
👼 Unsung hero: Jarman Impey
Has strung together a solid run of form since the birth of his baby - it was another solid yet unassuming performance from Jars. Touched it 21 times including gathering a team-high 10 intercept possessions, to go with his sic inside 50’s and 588 metres gained. Averaging 22 touches and five marks since round nine and continues to play his role with aplomb.
🤯 Under pressure: Cam Mackenzie
Could it be anyone else? Hauled off well ahead of schedule as a tactical sub leaving Mackenzie with only eight touches (four effective) and five clangers to his name. Seems odds on to be dropped back to Box Hill next week to try and get some form in the magoos. Is the piece of the puzzle that we put a lot of hopes on in the pre-season, but has yet to reach the expectations and heights that were placed on him. Box Hill play Williamstown and then has a bye, so needs a big showing if he does indeed get dropped.
🎤 Sammy said what!?
“We knew we were going to have to play a full four quarters to beat them, but we only played three.”
“We thought we were competing pretty well for the majority of the game, but just couldn’t quite get a big enough lead to get as far in front as we probably needed to.”
“We didn’t handle the last quarter very well at all and couldn’t get it into our front half and didn’t handle their pressure well enough - it’s a big cauldron over here and it was too much for us.”
“They beat us in tackles and contested possessions int he last quarter so, we weren’t quite good enough when it mattered.”
“We’ve got some work to do to compete against the very best sides, and when they really bought the heat late in the game we just couldn’t quite stand up to it today.”
“When you play in big games there is this feeling that everything matters so much, and I thought this game had that vibe about it for the majority of the game.”
“We understand that at our best we can compete with the best, but as soon as we drop away five percent we get a lesson, and we got one in the last quarter today.”
🗣️ Final word …
“It’s disappointing in the end I guess, being up for three quarters and a half and then probably didn’t handle the pressure late and Freo were a bit too good. Hopefully we galvanise together like we just did in the change rooms and get ready to face Port.
“We didn’t handle the pressure and didn’t use our numbers around the ball - we just kicked long to their spare and they were able to just mop it up, so on reflection we need to use our hands a bit more. It is hard in the heat of the battle - you think going long is good, but definitely need to use the numbers.”
⏭️ Next Week
We head down to Tassie for a must win game if we are to keep our finals hopes alive.
A win in the early Saturday afternoon time slot will allow us to sit back on Sunday and watch as five of the other teams inside the top eight battle it out.
But there will be no excuse for not bouncing back from this week’s loss at our home-away-from home in Launceston, where we are already 3-0 this season.
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What was learnt:
1. Disposal efficiency of 64% is not going to get it done – For a team that lacks leg speed, speed of ball movement becomes the weapon that gives the team an ability to control the game. When your disposal efficiency is this low, the ability to control the game becomes a real issue. Furthermore, only 8 players kicked the ball at 70% or better – Macdonald, Barrass, Meek, Morrison, Sicily, Dear, Battle and Jiath (1 kick). When you look at this group, there’s only one midfielder who is not a high possession winner and a couple that are low kick disposals given their roles.
2. Need to develop four quarter players – A feature of the team this season has been the inability of many players to play a consistent four quarter game. All too often, we’ve had players perform a cameo for a quarter or a half, but to think of players who has consistently played a four-quarter game don’t readily come to mind; Battle may be one and perhaps Meek in the past month another. This is in part due to several key players having disrupted years either due to injury or suspension that allowed others to be sat on combined with the opposition investing time into a few that flew under the radar last year. If we are looking to become a Top 4 contender, then this is the next stage of development. The one caveat here is that there were 8 players with less than 80 games experience in the team.
3. Set shots from 50m is a hard way to kick a winning score – Commentators harp on this but taking set shots from 50m arc and falling just short allowing the defence to punch the ball through is not an efficient method of kicking a winning score. From the AFL app, we had 4 rushed points and one touched (Freo 2/1). Having 22 scoring shots to 20 meant that this game was going to be the one who was the more efficient in converting their chances. We had 10 set shots for 3.3 whereas they had 11 set shots for 8.1. Against North, we were both super effective and had plenty of scoring chances (15.3 from 20 shots), however in a higher stakes game, we weren’t able to replicate either aspect of this skill.
4. Slow out of the blocks means playing chasey for the better part of the game which is tiring – Whilst the last quarter will gain most of the attention, the fact that they kicked kicked 3 goals to one early in the first quarter and then came out and kicked the two goals in 5 mins after half time after we’d controlled the game in the later part of the first half meant we had to arrest the momentum a couple of times through the game. The effort to turn the tide in the 3rd quarter was really strong, however we failed to fully capitalise on the scoreboard kicking 2.4.
5. Morrison is not an outlet contested marking option – In the 3rd quarter for some unknown reason, Morrison became a contested marking option with the ball being put on his head in a contested marking contest. Amon from the D50 allowed O’Meara to spoil and set up a goal for Freo and then later in the quarter twice going forward just outside the 50m arc, Morrison was thought to be a good option with opponents around him. The fact that Morrison gets to the right position doesn’t mean he has to receive the pass, particularly when he can’t be given the chance on his terms.
6. Jiath gives a long leg rope – Playing as an attacking half back, Jiath provides his opponent with a long leg rope, which means that he has to ensure that he pulls it in not only quickly, but effectively. Twice he failed to impede Frederick which allowed Freo to create their overlap run which is their one wood. Similarly, when he went to the contest in the goal square, where Meek dropped a mark in a one-on-one contest, he left Bolton alone meaning that when he failed to impact the contest for the ball, Bolton was able to kick a relatively easy goal.
7. Mackenzie on Jackson was a bad match up – There were a couple of times in the first half when Nash was resting, Mackenzie ended up being the match up for Jackson which was not on the bingo card as they say. In a tight contest, such match-ups, even for short periods, can swing the momentum. It also should be acknowledged the tough work done by Nash as the chop out ruck against Darcy/Jackson combo. Going into the game with the selected side, it was a concern that this period of the game may really swing it Freo’s way. The other aspect of this role relates to Chol wasn’t as impactful in his couple of runs in the centre square as he has been through the season.
Observations:
• Newcombe’s impact is exponentially greater when he has able to kick the ball 7/17 is not the mix we want on his disposal count.
• Amon’s kicking efficiency 43% could be a career low, leaving out his first 20 games, which was a real issue through the game when you’re the designated distributor.
• When some of our most experienced players - Hardwick (4th - 57% KE), Amon (5th) & Sicily (7th - 75%) – all butchered the ball at stages of the game, it does make it difficult for the rest of the team.
• In the 4th quarter we gave away some “bad” frees in our forward half along with a 50m penalty which didn’t allow our defenders a chance to set up the wall which had been effective in the 3rd quarter.
• Ginnivan’s work rate was enormous again in a game which was played in close and suited his skill set.
• Macdonald probably played his best game for the season even though his stats read the same as it would for most games this year. His set up for Ginnivan’s goal was elite.
• Meek’s goal kicking has gone off a little kicking 1.5 since the Eagles game. Also, he had 16 HO to advantage which is comparable to last week, however the impact wasn’t a clear.
• 0 disposals quarters – Chol (2nd quarter)
• Tackle count by quarter – 21/18; 30/25; 11/21; 16/29
• I50 count by quarter – 9/15; 18/9; 14/10; 10/17
• TOG % - Bottom 5 (leaving out subs): Worpel 69%, Jiath 72%, Dear 76%, D’Ambrosio 77%, Nash 77%, Impey 78%, Chol 78%. (Sicily 93% highest.)
• Kicking efficiency (DE): Jiath 100% (1 kick) (78), Battle 89% (87), Dear 80% (78), Morrison 75% (89), Sicily 75% (81).
Nash 17% (41), Moore 18% (29), Mackenzie 25% (50), Gunston 29% (36), Chol 33% (43), Amon 43% (60)
Starting 4: (CBA/CC)
1st Qrt: Newcombe (21/5) Nash (17/2) Ward (12/0)
2nd Qrt: Newcombe Mackenzie (9/1) Worpel (14/1)
3rd Qrt: Newcombe Nash Mackenzie
4th Qrt: Newcombe Nash Worpel
Meek 23/1 Chol 2/0 Moore 2/0
The lowest number of players go through the centre square in weeks. Freo only had 8 as well, so it was a head-to-head contest. However, being a low scoring game, it also limited the opportunities for a broader spread.
Issue for the week:
This week being a game against a non-contender, we can’t afford to drop it and for Port whilst may think finals are still mathematically possible; their reality is that they have nothing to play for other than to send their coach out in a winning note which makes them a dangerous opponent. Their strength is their spread from contest and this is what has troubled us over the past couple of seasons, so it will be interesting to see how Hale and Mitchell set up the midfield to quell this aspect of their game.
Living in Perth, this was the first Hawks game attended all year for me and it's so different to watching on TV.
The criticism of Sicily is a little harsh. He played primarily on Voss, who aside from one goal, had no impact on the game and it was a difficult night for marking. Bearing in mind, it was his first game for several weeks, it wasn't such a bad return.
CJ has the athletic profile that our team needs, but he makes too many mistakes to play in defence - each week his errors cost us goals and Saturday night was no different. His role in the team is an interesting point of discussion and while Morrison's been serviceable this season, there is some case for trying CJ on Morrison's wing, just to give us that outside run up the ground that is sorely missing. Alternatively, CJ could revert to the sub and McDonald or Scrimshaw come in.
Freo don’t push numbers back and in Saturday night’s conditions we could have gone more direct and deeper with our inside 50s rather than trying to set up the perfect entry. Chol and Dear weren't going to be out marked, and our small forwards were dangerous. There seemed to be too much lateral movement, which meant that our marks taken inside 50 were wide out and on the 50 metre arc. It was also noticeable how often Gunston led to the pockets, not sure if this was planned, in order to open up a leading lane for Chol and Calsher, but it didn't work, as Jack's shots were from wide out and ~50 metres. As Mick points out, this had the double edge effect of players trying to kick goals from ~50 metres, which were never going to be goals and easily killed by Freo's defenders. Why we didn't kick to the hot spot was very confusing.
Perhaps I'm imagining it as there's been no post-game discussion, but the umpiring of Watson was pretty ordinary and perhaps warrants Sam asking the question of the AFL umpiring boss. There were several instances where he was blatantly tackled or contacted high, yet the call was play on. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a serious head injury in the coming weeks, unless there's greater protection afforded by the umpires.
While Finn's contested mark and goal was excellent, the selection of Finn as sub doesn't really make sense, he's not an impact player and aside from his mark and goal, he did little else in the near two quarters that he was on. Someone like Bailey McDonald, or even Jai Serong would be a better option.
There was a lot of fanfare around Mackenzie this season, as a high draft pick coming into his third season. Aside from the Giants game, he's not had a four-quarter game all season and in several games, has looked like he's just not at the level. It will be interesting to see what happens with him at selection this week as Butler will be available.
Lastly, Calsher looked terrific, and in better conditions, could easily have had a big night. There was discussion on SEN this morning about the abundance of high-quality young key forwards, surprisingly Calsher didn't get a mention, however, watching recent VFL games and again on Saturday night, we should feel pretty good that we've got an absolute beauty.